Bizarre stat if you are betting Denver

[uscmd]

OK, trends are of limited value. I get it., but Jax is currently the 3 seed in the AFC. Den has clinched, and finishes @ KC, already in cancun, and home vs LAC.

OK in the last 35 years, the nfl has seen 50 teams run off 11 straight wins. (Den has) In their 12 th game, their record ats is 14-36. 28% wins. I can think of many reasons, line adj's, cockiness, no longer need, having clinched, or one Den has shown, doing just enough to win. Maybe resting key players if at end of season.

Jax has won 5 straight, and 6/7. OK, not vs. great teams, but they've scored 48, 36, 25, 27 and 35. Avg of 34 per.
Jax is #1 in the NFL, in rushing def., allowing 86 yds/gm

Its one of 5 or so on my list. I'll play 3. Just saying.

BOL 2 all.

 

[pigskinpete]

OK, trends are of limited value. I get it., but Jax is currently the 3 seed in the AFC. Den has clinched, and finishes @ KC, already in cancun, and home vs LAC.

OK in the last 35 years, the nfl has seen 50 teams run off 11 straight wins. (Den has) In their 12 th game, their record ats is 14-36. 28% wins. I can think of many reasons, line adj's, cockiness, no longer need, having clinched, or one Den has shown, doing just enough to win. Maybe resting key players if at end of season.

Jax has won 5 straight, and 6/7. OK, not vs. great teams, but they've scored 48, 36, 25, 27 and 35. Avg of 34 per.
Jax is #1 in the NFL, in rushing def., allowing 86 yds/gm

Its one of 5 or so on my list. I'll play 3. Just saying.

BOL 2 all.

Interesting, I was considering Jax myself, even before that 12th game info…not questioning it, but where did you find the 50 teams and the 28% number?…AI?

 

[skoda]

Gut is saying Bears and Williams legs
Unbeaten trend at home for Denver ends Jax win on 70 yard FG
Ravens sorry Willie
Bengals I read Miami went to Cancun

money line parlay

 

[uscmd]

Pete, I wrote it on my yellow pads. In quotes. I believe it was on the fox program, first things first. I still have both first things first, and ftf ot. I'll fast forward through them, and let you know.

 

[uscmd]

Pete, it was first things first, Nick Wright was picking Jax, and the quote was his. About 90 minutes into the show. I watch, for injury info, and the off stat like this one. Unlike most of the media, Nick is battling with the guy on the OT show, Danny Parkins. So I know they are trying. Like a death duel, for the imaginary fox crown. I know ridiculous, but I think they really care. Last yr they were 55-60%. This year more like even money.

bol.

 

[uscmd]

fyi....circa has Jax + 3.5, 4-1

 

[uscmd]

Re : Jax. CIRCA

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 4:05 PM ET - Jaguars at Broncos
Matt Ste. Marie : Broncos (-3.5) vs Jaguars
Jason Jarvis : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Mike North : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Chris Fallica : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Scott Pritchard : Jaguars (+3.5) at Broncos
Meyer / Sack : Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)
Matt Ste. Marie : Jaguars at Broncos - OVER (47)

And heres the head scratcher: NYG, I count best bets as 2. Which makes NY 7-0

NFL - Sun, Dec 21 at 1:00 PM ET - Vikings at Giants
Mike North : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Scott Pritchard : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Frank Carulli : Giants (+3) vs Vikings
Meyer / Sack : Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Jason Jarvis : Giants (+3) vs Vikings * BEST BET
Scott Pritchard : Vikings at Giants - OVER (42.5)

I check these late Fri, for confirmation pro or con. Thr more lopsided, the more I pay attention.

Thanks to Buzz, rubber room, newsletters, late Fri

 

[uscmd]

Fri, fox sports; 3 fb betting programs.
1. The Herd 9-12. blazing 5 ok. but the data he tosses is fantastic.
2. first things first 12-2
3. first things first overtime 2-3

Other days hot and cold, but Fri blazing 5, 10 a.m. And the 2 first things first are really nfl, oriented. Picks and logic behind them. I have it on while I crunch data. When I hear a pearl, like the den stat.
More accurately a 'could be a pearl,'

The shows are good enough usually I save all 3 until after the games are finished.

Its strange ~ 4 yrs ago, there seemed to be more programming focused on bet making. Gone.

 

[pigskinpete]

OK, trends are of limited value. I get it., but Jax is currently the 3 seed in the AFC. Den has clinched, and finishes @ KC, already in cancun, and home vs LAC.

OK in the last 35 years, the nfl has seen 50 teams run off 11 straight wins. (Den has) In their 12 th game, their record ats is 14-36. 28% wins. I can think of many reasons, line adj's, cockiness, no longer need, having clinched, or one Den has shown, doing just enough to win. Maybe resting key players if at end of season.

Jax has won 5 straight, and 6/7. OK, not vs. great teams, but they've scored 48, 36, 25, 27 and 35. Avg of 34 per.
Jax is #1 in the NFL, in rushing def., allowing 86 yds/gm

Its one of 5 or so on my list. I'll play 3. Just saying.

BOL 2 all.

This is what a sports betting forum should be about, information about trends and statistics…so much nonsense from so many here…anyway I was considering Jax, and this pushed me over the edge!…

 

[uscmd]

Pete you are right on the mark. Anything that could impact performance on the field or the outcome of the game. I'm afraid many MANY people see something but don't say anything for fear of being ridiculed. or drawn into one of ongoing feuds.
As an example, both Mia and KC were going with QB's that were of limited or no experience both lost by 20+. The KC bu, blew out his knee, so he'll be out. KC goes further down the depth chart.
Or, DK Metcalf punched a DEt fan in the stands today. Suspension, fine or both might be on interest to a potentialPit bettor
This one I heard early Thur, Puka Nacua's brother, who lives with, was arrested Wed night for auto theft. Players are human, and distractions are a big potential negative.

My fondest wish, would be much less sniping, and more niceness. Create an atmosphere were young guys feel they can get data about their pending bets. Feel a collegial sense of "I like it here." I say this meaning no disrespect, but reading some threads, I've felt, 'these guys are ass holes, I'm out of here.

Some of you know, I have 7-8 yellow pads going constantly, I watch everything sports related, read ~15 newspapers and listen to podcasts, M, T, W.,...Wed I list the entire slate, then I rank best to worst, on instinct, predictability. How my process has mr feeling about the 16. I then grade A,B,C. The A's are at the top of the next list followed by the B;s and C;sd.
So by late Thur. I'm down to ~7 +/- ranked best to worst. Then IU continue to fine tune. I have every pad, every pick going back 35 years.

I know many of you already do something similar, but I think some of the young people could benefit from some structure, and a welcome to the RX,

In the past few days I've come to the conclusion that late at night my meds can make a bit verbose, a chatty doc. Apologies. Just know its coming from a place of wanting to help bettors enjoy the experience and in turn share their data.

Tomorrow and Tuesdays injury report ought to be something
Heres next weeks schedule.

So start thinking as you read the pairs who needs it more, who has cluster inj's and will be playing backups. Who has been eliminated, and might just not care.

note: 5 games before Sun's early kickoffs. Xmas games only on NETFLIX, 1ST 2. AMAZON FOR DEN @KC

Week 17
Date	Time (ET)	Away Team	Home Team
Thu Dec 25	1:00 pm	Dallas Cowboys	Washington Commanders
	4:30 pm	Detroit Lions	Minnesota Vikings
	8:15 pm	Denver Broncos	Kansas City Chiefs
Sat Dec 27	4:30 pm	Houston Texans	Los Angeles Chargers
	8:00 pm	Baltimore Ravens	Green Bay Packers
Sun Dec 28	1:00 pm	Arizona Cardinals	Cincinnati Bengals
	1:00 pm	Jacksonville Jaguars	Indianapolis Colts
	1:00 pm	New England Patriots	New York Jets
	1:00 pm	New Orleans Saints	Tennessee Titans
	1:00 pm	Pittsburgh Steelers	Cleveland Browns
	1:00 pm	Seattle Seahawks	Carolina Panthers
	1:00 pm	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Miami Dolphins
	4:05 pm	New York Giants	Las Vegas Raiders
	4:25 pm	Philadelphia Eagles	Buffalo Bills
	8:20 pm	Chicago Bears	San Francisco 49ers
Mon Dec 29	8:15 pm	Los Angeles Rams	Atlanta Falcons

* Tentative flex schedule game, start time is subject to change.

 

[skoda]

Gut is saying Bears and Williams legs
Unbeaten trend at home for Denver ends Jax win on 70 yard FG
Ravens sorry Willie
Bengals I read Miami went to Cancun

money line parlay

Ravens cost me with QB out with sore back after getting Knee on slide? QB’s should do a head first slide…… Thought Huntley was on CBS news? Baltimore needs a new line-up next year

 

[ashack1]

Every Sunday, I play a shits and giggles 6 team ML parlay for 25.00
I’ve hit a couple, which adds a little to the bankroll. Guess who got me yesterday.?
Should’ve listened to you sir..

 

[skoda]

Every Sunday, I play a shits and giggles 6 team ML parlay for 25.00
I’ve hit a couple, which adds a little to the bankroll. Guess who got me yesterday.?
Should’ve listened to you sir..

Don’t say Bengals! Ravens costly 20-1 parlay!

propping up tonight Niners tough in RZ just read so….

Indianapolis Colts (Blake Grupe) Over 1.5 field goals​

-115 at bet365

Teasing SF/Under

 

[ashack1]

Don’t say Bengals! Ravens costly 20-1 parlay!

propping up tonight Niners tough in RZ just read so….

Indianapolis Colts (Blake Grupe) Over 1.5 field goals​

-115 at bet365

Teasing SF/Under

Broncos got me skoda.. I’ll place a little on that prop for entertainment. I’m probably playing Indy for the game. GL tonight

 

[uscmd]

Careful on Indy. 2025 Rivers avg pass 4.4 yds. Expect the niners to jam the box, slow Taylor and make Rivers throw 10 yds plus if he can. Also Indy w/o cb sauce gardner and Excellent S, Chavarius Ward. Purdy has not enjoyed crappy weather, so indoors may suit him. SF Negative no Pearsall.
SF hc, one of sharpest in league. Hes been a magician getting this injury riddled SF team to 10-4, in what is by miles the best div in the nfl

 

[ashack1]

All excellent points, md. I’m just thinking that it looks too easy with SF, and to the points you were making about how strange wagering football has become. I do see some movement in the line in Indy’s direction, and what great television it would be if Rivers could pull this off, after coming down close last week. It won’t be a big wager regardless. GL to you tonight, sir..

 

[5o'clockcharlie]

Careful on Indy. 2025 Rivers avg pass 4.4 yds. Expect the niners to jam the box, slow Taylor and make Rivers throw 10 yds plus if he can. Also Indy w/o cb sauce gardner and Excellent S, Chavarius Ward. Purdy has not enjoyed crappy weather, so indoors may suit him. SF Negative no Pearsall.
SF hc, one of sharpest in league. Hes been a magician getting this injury riddled SF team to 10-4, in what is by miles the best div in the nfl

2025 Rivers = 1 game

Niners have beaten 2 teams with a winning record(Seattle in week 1 and Rams over 2 months ago). They had a very manageable schedule. Just because they are in toughest division does not mean they play the toughest schedule. If Niners played the Giants schedule they would be lucky to be .500.