Today is Wednesday, not Tuesday.
Been awhile since I've posted. Been running good lately, except for the few games I mention in someone else's thread. Here are the games I'm looking at:
NY/Oakland UNDER 8: Playing the under where the home team lost their previous game as a HD in extra innings. Total has to be 8.5 or less. In addition to the situation, Kazmir pitching very well and my A's don't hit LH pitching. 61-109-4 (Unders hit 64.1%) since 2004.
Toronto/Chi Sox UNDER 9: Playing a total of 8 or more, Home Dog lost last by 1/2 runs and they also had 5 or more LOB than their opponent. 18-36-2 since 2010. Under hits 66% in this situation.
Miami +145: This plays on a Road Dog that lost their previous and struck out at least 10 times. Philadelphia was a play last night at a juicy +240, as was Arizona at +125. It has gone 71-70 this year good for 20 units. Its a very streaky angle, Hitting the last 5 while losing the 5 before that. Prior to the 5 game losing streak it won 7. The previous 20 it went 5-15. If you find a game where the team struck out 12 or more in a loss and is a Road Dog today, it is a stronger play but obviously not as many plays.
Minnesota +110: I think I've won more on Minnesota than any other team this year. They crush LH pitching but often they are dogs in that situation. Shoot, they are dogs a lot of the time anyways. So let's play them again tonight in this situation - Play on a Home Dog off of a 5+ run win in the last game of the series. Play at +135 or less. Since 2009 its 70-48 good for 30.52 units. This year its 4-4 for crumbs, but these games are also 7-1 to the OVER. Now overall, the O/U is 60-47 (56.1%) slight over lean thanks in large part to the OVERS this year. Just playing the side, but if you like the over there is some food for thought.
Atlanta/Milwaukee UNDER 7.5: Umpire play on Lance Barksdale. He's an under umpire during Day games Total 7-9.5. Unders are 56-34 (62%) since 2005. When it gets a little warm, he wants to take the gear off. Or maybe he gets hungry. Who knows, but his games tend to go under in the day time.
Detroit +110 - Detroit/Seattle UNDER 7.5: Umpire play on Rob Drake. Series Game 3 with a Home favorite and total is 7-9. He's 28-9 to the under since 2005. Detroit fits the 10+ strikeout situation. They actually struck out 15 times. Hate playing sides and unders together, but I've hit them before and the situation says under and Detroit. So that's what we will do.
Los Angeles Angels/Colorado OVER 11: Play OVER in Colorado if Rockies lost previous and they are on a 1-4 game OVER streak. 64-26 since 2011, 8-5 this year. One caveat: Angels 5-14 O/U VS LH, they play a lot of Unders VS LH pitching. Angels are swinging the bats lately after a string of Unders. Not crazy about the 11, obviously something less than 11 would be ideal. Conflicting data here, not sure if/when I will pull the trigger on this one.
8 plays.
Been awhile since I've posted. Been running good lately, except for the few games I mention in someone else's thread. Here are the games I'm looking at:
NY/Oakland UNDER 8: Playing the under where the home team lost their previous game as a HD in extra innings. Total has to be 8.5 or less. In addition to the situation, Kazmir pitching very well and my A's don't hit LH pitching. 61-109-4 (Unders hit 64.1%) since 2004.
Toronto/Chi Sox UNDER 9: Playing a total of 8 or more, Home Dog lost last by 1/2 runs and they also had 5 or more LOB than their opponent. 18-36-2 since 2010. Under hits 66% in this situation.
Miami +145: This plays on a Road Dog that lost their previous and struck out at least 10 times. Philadelphia was a play last night at a juicy +240, as was Arizona at +125. It has gone 71-70 this year good for 20 units. Its a very streaky angle, Hitting the last 5 while losing the 5 before that. Prior to the 5 game losing streak it won 7. The previous 20 it went 5-15. If you find a game where the team struck out 12 or more in a loss and is a Road Dog today, it is a stronger play but obviously not as many plays.
Minnesota +110: I think I've won more on Minnesota than any other team this year. They crush LH pitching but often they are dogs in that situation. Shoot, they are dogs a lot of the time anyways. So let's play them again tonight in this situation - Play on a Home Dog off of a 5+ run win in the last game of the series. Play at +135 or less. Since 2009 its 70-48 good for 30.52 units. This year its 4-4 for crumbs, but these games are also 7-1 to the OVER. Now overall, the O/U is 60-47 (56.1%) slight over lean thanks in large part to the OVERS this year. Just playing the side, but if you like the over there is some food for thought.
Atlanta/Milwaukee UNDER 7.5: Umpire play on Lance Barksdale. He's an under umpire during Day games Total 7-9.5. Unders are 56-34 (62%) since 2005. When it gets a little warm, he wants to take the gear off. Or maybe he gets hungry. Who knows, but his games tend to go under in the day time.
Detroit +110 - Detroit/Seattle UNDER 7.5: Umpire play on Rob Drake. Series Game 3 with a Home favorite and total is 7-9. He's 28-9 to the under since 2005. Detroit fits the 10+ strikeout situation. They actually struck out 15 times. Hate playing sides and unders together, but I've hit them before and the situation says under and Detroit. So that's what we will do.
Los Angeles Angels/Colorado OVER 11: Play OVER in Colorado if Rockies lost previous and they are on a 1-4 game OVER streak. 64-26 since 2011, 8-5 this year. One caveat: Angels 5-14 O/U VS LH, they play a lot of Unders VS LH pitching. Angels are swinging the bats lately after a string of Unders. Not crazy about the 11, obviously something less than 11 would be ideal. Conflicting data here, not sure if/when I will pull the trigger on this one.
8 plays.
