The current line is New England -4 or -4.5 with a total of 48.
My first thoughts on this game was that I will always take an excellent defense getting points. Its a standard that has served me well for many years, and when combined with a solid running game is even stronger. Both teams allow the same amount of points, and the Eagles have a solid net rushing advantage. Looking at these two factors I would take Philadelphia most of the time. But nothing is 100%, so lets look at this game a little deeper.
Lets start with the Philadelphia offense, with the loss of Wentz obviously a huge factor. Now Foles just had a great game vs Minnesota, and the public is often fixated on what they just saw. I want to focus on what this offense has done with Foles at the helm. They beat the NYG 34-29 throwing 4 TDS and 233 yards. They were helped by 2 short fields caused by a pick and a blocked punt. They ran for 108. It was a solid performance against a pathetic defense. It was far from a dominating offensive display despite scoring 34 points.
That was followed by the MNF game vs Oakland, another bad team. It was a cold game at night, not the greatest scoring conditions but nothing that a good offense couldn’t overcome. They basically scored 13 points, helped by short fields. They threw for 163 and ran for 21-78 against a team with an average defense at best. Then they played Dallas in a nothing game that had very cold weather getting shut out. I’ll excuse that game but they also did absolutely nothing in that game.
Playoffs and they score 15 against Atlanta. A decent offensive game yardage wise but again only 15 points. Then the Minnesota blowout. Now many will point to this game and say look how great this offense played vs an elite defense. I thought it was a lot of bad Minnesota along with good Philadelphia. I saw many defensive breakdowns that were not indicative of the way that defense played all year. After the Pick 6 by Philly the Minnesota defense was pressing, eyes in the backfield, trying too hard to match the Philadelphia score. They got away from what they did all year long. Receivers were constantly getting behind the defense, and they acted like they had never seen a RPO before. Folks hit that little slant pass over and over. Look, Philadelphia played a great all around game, helped by a lot of bad Minnesota. It was a perfect storm for a blowout. Full credit to the Eagles for a tremendous game, but that wasn't the Minnesota defense I watched all year long. They were also dinged a bit in the secondary too.
The Philadelphia defense is one of the best in the NFL. 4th in total defense, 5th in 1st down allowed, 3rd in 3rd down %, 7th in penalties. But while they are the top rushing defense they are just 17th in pass defense which is something that the Pats obviously excel in. For all the talk about their pass rush they are 17th in sacks. Tied for 26th in INTs. 13th in Def Comp %, they do rank 3rd in YPA.
Lets look at home/road splits. They allow 17.3/game overall but away from home that rises to 23.5. Lets look at their home and away points allowed. Road games in BOLD.
Take out the Dallas game when the Cowboys were a mess, and in every game they allowed over 20 points. The Giants scored 29, Rams 35, Seattle 24, Carolina 23, Chargers 24, KC 27.
At home they were pretty solid, but several of those teams were not very good. SF with the rookie Beathard in the rain, Arizona without David Johnson who I believe just got hurt the week before or close to it, Washington scored 24, Denver 23, Chicago 3 with a rookie QB that struggled to score all year, the Raiders scored 10 and were poor offensively most of the year, Dallas in the last game in the cold. They are clearly a different team defensively at home as opposed to the road, and they weren’t exactly shut down against some decent offenses.
New England has one of the top offenses in the league. I’m not going to spend a lot of time breaking down their offense. #1 Total yards, #2 passing yards, #1 1st downs, 10th in rushing. They are elite offensively. Road/Home, Grass/Turf they are consistent regardless of where they play or what surface they play on.
Defensively they struggled early in the season but have gotten much better. Nobody makes better in game adjustments than the Patriots, and last week’s game vs Jacksonville the latest example.
Take out the first 4 games, and you will see that the defense was much improved. Take out those games and including the playoffs they have allowed 15.1 points per game. Yes, some teams were also offensively challenged just like the Philly opponents. The difference is that NE was good home AND road while the Eagles defense, at least statistically, had a noticeable drop away from home.
Defensively they rank average at best in several categories, Philadelphia has much best rankings. NE also had very good success against some solid offenses. TB scored 14 in TB, Atlanta 7, Chargers 13. Miami did score 27 in that MNF look ahead game vs Pittsburgh when they clearly were not 100% focused. Pittsburgh 24 an elite offense on the road in Pittsburgh. I am concerned about the 4.6/att that they allow vs the run. They have been much better the 2nd half of the year with YPRA. Look to the far right of each game, I have highlighted those numbers. Those 4 teams (TB, Atl, LAC, Pitt) are Top 10 in total offense.
This line has dropped like a rock from the open of 6. Everyone sees the last Philly game, Foles throwing it all over the place against an elite defense. The defense allowing 7 points. Minnesota moved the ball, but turnovers killed them and when the game got out of hand the offensive game plan goes out the window. We see media reports of $1M bets on Philadelphia, and the World Series guy that is taking his profits and putting it on Philadelphia. The Eagles have become a very public dog, and that is never a good thing if you like taking the dog. NE was lucky and the refs always help them, etc..
New England should have lost to Jacksonville, and as a guy holding a 8/1 AFC and 18/1 SB ticket on the Jaguars it was a very painful loss to watch. Being an Oakland fan, my hatred for New England runs deep. Again, the public puts far too much emphasis on what they just saw.
I initially liked Philadelphia for reasons I mentioned at the top of the page. But after looking deeper into this game, I like New England and I feel this line creeps back up as game day approaches. We have the far better offense, a defense that has its issues but is stingy allowing points. The other team with defensive issues away from home, with a backup QB that has been solid but far from spectacular.
I think there will be points scored in this game, no weather issues and a fast track. It may start slow, but by games end there will be points on the board.
New England 30
Philadelphia 23
New England -4 (1U)
OVER 48 (1U)
I hope everyone enjoys the game and has a great time.
Biz
My first thoughts on this game was that I will always take an excellent defense getting points. Its a standard that has served me well for many years, and when combined with a solid running game is even stronger. Both teams allow the same amount of points, and the Eagles have a solid net rushing advantage. Looking at these two factors I would take Philadelphia most of the time. But nothing is 100%, so lets look at this game a little deeper.
Lets start with the Philadelphia offense, with the loss of Wentz obviously a huge factor. Now Foles just had a great game vs Minnesota, and the public is often fixated on what they just saw. I want to focus on what this offense has done with Foles at the helm. They beat the NYG 34-29 throwing 4 TDS and 233 yards. They were helped by 2 short fields caused by a pick and a blocked punt. They ran for 108. It was a solid performance against a pathetic defense. It was far from a dominating offensive display despite scoring 34 points.
That was followed by the MNF game vs Oakland, another bad team. It was a cold game at night, not the greatest scoring conditions but nothing that a good offense couldn’t overcome. They basically scored 13 points, helped by short fields. They threw for 163 and ran for 21-78 against a team with an average defense at best. Then they played Dallas in a nothing game that had very cold weather getting shut out. I’ll excuse that game but they also did absolutely nothing in that game.
Playoffs and they score 15 against Atlanta. A decent offensive game yardage wise but again only 15 points. Then the Minnesota blowout. Now many will point to this game and say look how great this offense played vs an elite defense. I thought it was a lot of bad Minnesota along with good Philadelphia. I saw many defensive breakdowns that were not indicative of the way that defense played all year. After the Pick 6 by Philly the Minnesota defense was pressing, eyes in the backfield, trying too hard to match the Philadelphia score. They got away from what they did all year long. Receivers were constantly getting behind the defense, and they acted like they had never seen a RPO before. Folks hit that little slant pass over and over. Look, Philadelphia played a great all around game, helped by a lot of bad Minnesota. It was a perfect storm for a blowout. Full credit to the Eagles for a tremendous game, but that wasn't the Minnesota defense I watched all year long. They were also dinged a bit in the secondary too.
The Philadelphia defense is one of the best in the NFL. 4th in total defense, 5th in 1st down allowed, 3rd in 3rd down %, 7th in penalties. But while they are the top rushing defense they are just 17th in pass defense which is something that the Pats obviously excel in. For all the talk about their pass rush they are 17th in sacks. Tied for 26th in INTs. 13th in Def Comp %, they do rank 3rd in YPA.
Lets look at home/road splits. They allow 17.3/game overall but away from home that rises to 23.5. Lets look at their home and away points allowed. Road games in BOLD.
| Date | Opponent | Line | OU | Score | SU | ATS | OU | Yds | RYPA | Yds | PYPA | Yds | RYPA | Yds | PYPA |
| 1-21-18 | vs MINNESOTA | 3 | 39 | 38-7 | W | W | O | 110 | 3.7 | 346 | 10.5 | 70 | 3.9 | 263 | 5.5 |
| 1-13-18 | vs ATLANTA | 2.5 | 40 | 15-10 | W | W | U | 96 | 3.0 | 238 | 7.9 | 86 | 4.3 | 195 | 5.4 |
| 12-31-17 | vs DALLAS | 4 | 41 | 0-6 | L | L | U | 70 | 3.9 | 149 | 4.4 | 129 | 4.0 | 172 | 5.7 |
| 12-25-17 | vs OAKLAND | -10 | 45.5 | 19-10 | W | L | U | 78 | 3.7 | 138 | 3.6 | 137 | 4.2 | 137 | 4.7 |
| 12-17-17 | at NY GIANTS | -7 | 41 | 34-29 | W | L | O | 108 | 4.0 | 233 | 9.7 | 75 | 3.3 | 429 | 11.6 |
| 12-10-17 | at LA RAMS | -1 | 47 | 43-35 | W | W | O | 139 | 4.3 | 316 | 10.9 | 109 | 6.4 | 198 | 12.4 |
| 12-3-17 | at SEATTLE | -3.5 | 47 | 10-24 | L | L | U | 98 | 3.8 | 327 | 11.3 | 101 | 4.0 | 209 | 10.5 |
| 11-26-17 | vs CHICAGO | -14 | 43.5 | 31-3 | W | W | U | 176 | 5.3 | 244 | 6.3 | 6 | 0.4 | 134 | 4.1 |
| 11-19-17 | at DALLAS | -6 | 48 | 37-9 | W | W | U | 215 | 6.5 | 168 | 12.0 | 112 | 4.1 | 113 | 6.3 |
| 11-5-17 | vs DENVER | -7 | 41 | 51-23 | W | W | O | 197 | 5.3 | 222 | 7.9 | 35 | 1.8 | 191 | 5.0 |
| 10-29-17 | vs SAN FRANCISCO | -13 | 45 | 33-10 | W | W | U | 112 | 3.6 | 192 | 6.0 | 94 | 3.9 | 144 | 4.0 |
| 10-23-17 | vs WASHINGTON | -4.5 | 48.5 | 34-24 | W | W | O | 127 | 3.8 | 244 | 9.8 | 75 | 4.2 | 269 | 6.7 |
| 10-12-17 | at CAROLINA | 3 | 44 | 28-23 | W | W | O | 101 | 3.7 | 209 | 13.1 | 80 | 3.2 | 225 | 8.0 |
| 10-8-17 | vs ARIZONA | -6 | 44.5 | 34-7 | W | W | U | 122 | 3.7 | 297 | 9.9 | 31 | 2.2 | 276 | 6.3 |
| 10-1-17 | at LA CHARGERS | 2 | 47.5 | 26-24 | W | W | O | 214 | 5.1 | 240 | 14.1 | 58 | 4.5 | 342 | 15.5 |
| 9-24-17 | vs NY GIANTS | -5 | 42 | 27-24 | W | L | O | 193 | 4.9 | 161 | 5.2 | 49 | 2.9 | 366 | 7.8 |
| 9-17-17 | at KANSAS CITY | 46.5 | 20-27 | L | L | O | 107 | 6.3 | 299 | 12.0 | 112 | 5.9 | 232 | 11.0 | |
| 9-10-17 | at WASHINGTON | -2 | 49 | 30-17 |
Take out the Dallas game when the Cowboys were a mess, and in every game they allowed over 20 points. The Giants scored 29, Rams 35, Seattle 24, Carolina 23, Chargers 24, KC 27.
At home they were pretty solid, but several of those teams were not very good. SF with the rookie Beathard in the rain, Arizona without David Johnson who I believe just got hurt the week before or close to it, Washington scored 24, Denver 23, Chicago 3 with a rookie QB that struggled to score all year, the Raiders scored 10 and were poor offensively most of the year, Dallas in the last game in the cold. They are clearly a different team defensively at home as opposed to the road, and they weren’t exactly shut down against some decent offenses.
New England has one of the top offenses in the league. I’m not going to spend a lot of time breaking down their offense. #1 Total yards, #2 passing yards, #1 1st downs, 10th in rushing. They are elite offensively. Road/Home, Grass/Turf they are consistent regardless of where they play or what surface they play on.
Defensively they struggled early in the season but have gotten much better. Nobody makes better in game adjustments than the Patriots, and last week’s game vs Jacksonville the latest example.
| Date | Opponent | Line | OU | Score | SU | ATS | OU | Yds | RYPA | Yds | PYPA | Yds | RYPA | Yds | PYPA |
| 1-21-18 | vs JACKSONVILLE | -7.5 | 46 | 24-20 | W | L | U | 46 | 2.4 | 298 | 7.6 | 101 | 3.2 | 273 | 7.6 |
| 1-13-18 | vs TENNESSEE | -13.5 | 48 | 35-14 | W | W | O | 101 | 3.7 | 337 | 6.4 | 65 | 4.1 | 202 | 5.5 |
| 12-31-17 | vs NY JETS | -16 | 43.5 | 26-6 | W | W | U | 147 | 3.9 | 183 | 4.6 | 40 | 2.1 | 207 | 5.8 |
| 12-24-17 | vs BUFFALO | -11 | 47.5 | 37-16 | W | W | O | 193 | 5.1 | 218 | 7.8 | 84 | 3.5 | 242 | 6.4 |
| 12-17-17 | at PITTSBURGH | -2.5 | 52.5 | 27-24 | W | W | U | 77 | 4.1 | 283 | 12.9 | 143 | 4.6 | 270 | 12.3 |
| 12-11-17 | at MIAMI | -10 | 48 | 20-27 | L | L | U | 25 | 2.5 | 223 | 9.3 | 120 | 4.0 | 242 | 9.7 |
| 12-3-17 | at BUFFALO | -7.5 | 49 | 23-3 | W | W | U | 191 | 5.5 | 244 | 11.6 | 183 | 7.0 | 85 | 5.7 |
| 11-26-17 | vs MIAMI | -16.5 | 48.5 | 35-17 | W | W | O | 196 | 5.2 | 221 | 7.9 | 67 | 3.5 | 154 | 4.5 |
| 11-19-17 | at OAKLAND | -7 | 54.5 | 33-8 | W | W | U | 89 | 4.5 | 331 | 11.0 | 109 | 5.2 | 235 | 8.4 |
| 11-12-17 | at DENVER | -7 | 44.5 | 41-16 | W | W | O | 99 | 3.4 | 297 | 10.6 | 118 | 4.2 | 221 | 12.3 |
| 10-29-17 | vs LA CHARGERS | -6.5 | 49 | 21-13 | W | W | U | 97 | 3.0 | 317 | 6.7 | 157 | 7.5 | 192 | 6.4 |
| 10-22-17 | vs ATLANTA | -2.5 | 56.5 | 23-7 | W | W | U | 162 | 4.5 | 241 | 8.3 | 120 | 5.5 | 223 | 6.8 |
| 10-15-17 | at NY JETS | -9 | 48.5 | 24-17 | W | L | U | 118 | 4.7 | 257 | 12.9 | 74 | 3.1 | 334 | 10.8 |
| 10-5-17 | at TAMPA BAY | -3.5 | 55 | 19-14 | W | W | U | 113 | 4.9 | 289 | 9.6 | 90 | 4.5 | 319 | 12.3 |
| 10-1-17 | vs CAROLINA | -9 | 48 | 30-33 | L | L | O | 80 | 4.2 | 293 | 6.5 | 140 | 4.8 | 304 | 10.5 |
| 9-24-17 | vs HOUSTON | -13 | 44.5 | 36-33 | W | L | O | 59 | 3.0 | 337 | 9.6 | 125 | 3.9 | 292 | 8.8 |
| 9-17-17 | at NEW ORLEANS | -5.5 | 55 | 36-20 | W | W | O | 119 | 3.8 | 436 | 14.5 | 81 | 4.8 | 348 | 12.9 |
| 9-7-17 | vs KANSAS CITY | -8 | 47.5 | 27-42 | L | L | O | 124 | 3.5 | 247 | 6.9 | 185 | 6.9 | 352 | 10.1 |
Take out the first 4 games, and you will see that the defense was much improved. Take out those games and including the playoffs they have allowed 15.1 points per game. Yes, some teams were also offensively challenged just like the Philly opponents. The difference is that NE was good home AND road while the Eagles defense, at least statistically, had a noticeable drop away from home.
Defensively they rank average at best in several categories, Philadelphia has much best rankings. NE also had very good success against some solid offenses. TB scored 14 in TB, Atlanta 7, Chargers 13. Miami did score 27 in that MNF look ahead game vs Pittsburgh when they clearly were not 100% focused. Pittsburgh 24 an elite offense on the road in Pittsburgh. I am concerned about the 4.6/att that they allow vs the run. They have been much better the 2nd half of the year with YPRA. Look to the far right of each game, I have highlighted those numbers. Those 4 teams (TB, Atl, LAC, Pitt) are Top 10 in total offense.
This line has dropped like a rock from the open of 6. Everyone sees the last Philly game, Foles throwing it all over the place against an elite defense. The defense allowing 7 points. Minnesota moved the ball, but turnovers killed them and when the game got out of hand the offensive game plan goes out the window. We see media reports of $1M bets on Philadelphia, and the World Series guy that is taking his profits and putting it on Philadelphia. The Eagles have become a very public dog, and that is never a good thing if you like taking the dog. NE was lucky and the refs always help them, etc..
New England should have lost to Jacksonville, and as a guy holding a 8/1 AFC and 18/1 SB ticket on the Jaguars it was a very painful loss to watch. Being an Oakland fan, my hatred for New England runs deep. Again, the public puts far too much emphasis on what they just saw.
I initially liked Philadelphia for reasons I mentioned at the top of the page. But after looking deeper into this game, I like New England and I feel this line creeps back up as game day approaches. We have the far better offense, a defense that has its issues but is stingy allowing points. The other team with defensive issues away from home, with a backup QB that has been solid but far from spectacular.
I think there will be points scored in this game, no weather issues and a fast track. It may start slow, but by games end there will be points on the board.
New England 30
Philadelphia 23
New England -4 (1U)
OVER 48 (1U)
I hope everyone enjoys the game and has a great time.
Biz
