BIZ Buckets 2015/16 PLAYOFFS Thread

[Biz]

All plays will be in this thread. 333-275 (54.7%) was the final regular season record. Plus 30.5 Units at a -110 line, Plus 44.25 Units at a -105 line. All plays will be system plays, my personal opinions and handicapping will have little to do with the plays. I am similar to Falcon, the plays are the plays.

Plays will be listed by Units. If a game has multiple systems that are triggered, then I will assign 1U for every system that applies. A side may have 2 systems trigger, it will be 2U for example.

Since 2010, going back 5 years, there has been an average of 211 units wagered per year. Historically the win percentage from a unit perspective is 72.3%. Low was 69.2% in 2010 and 69.4% last year. Over that time the lowest units won is 70.

Nothing lasts forever, so I am very curious to see if the systems I've developed continue to perform at this level. I've had very successful post seasons using them and hope to see similar results this year. Over time line makers catch up to things, but I'm confident we will have another winning post season. My regular season results were based entirely on system plays. The post season will too.

Thats it, any questions ask. I'll post Saturday plays shortly.

 

[Biz]

Saturday, April 16

Atlanta -5
Boston/Atlanta OVER 204
Dallas +12
Dallas/Oklahoma City UNDER 209
Houston/Golden St OVER 225

 

[Biz]

Saturday, April 16

Atlanta -5
Boston/Atlanta OVER 204
Dallas +12
Dallas/Oklahoma City UNDER 209
Houston/Golden St OVER 225

1-4

I should have cancelled out a couple plays after seeing the ref assignments, and made OKC under 2 units. Went to the Dubs game, had several drinks in the club afterwards. Was in no condition to find the thread and make adjustments. But it is what it is. Rough start but will get better.

Go Dubs.

 

[boss415]

Lucky bastard ! Lol I bet Oracle was rocking , blowout from the get go.

 

[Biz]

Lucky bastard ! Lol I bet Oracle was rocking , blowout from the get go.

It was a good time.

Sunday, April 17

Miami -4 (2U)
Charlotte/Miami UNDER 200
Cleveland -11 (2U)
Memphia/San Antonio OVER 189.5 (2U)
Portland/Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 209

 

[Biz]

Sunday, April 17

Miami -4 (2U)
Charlotte/Miami UNDER 200
Cleveland -11 (2U)
Memphia/San Antonio OVER 189.5 (2U)
Portland/Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 209

What a ridiculous beat with that under 209. Hope you guys got the 210/210.5 that was out there.

2-8 (-7.5 UNITS)

 

[Biz]

Ok, a pretty awful start to the playoffs. A few things......

With a smaller sample size for playoff systems, the results can be a bit more volatile. I like to use the last 5 years as a frame of reference. The regular season systems stand up very well going back even farther than that, but the playoffs are different. There just isn't the sample size to make them as reliable as regular season systems. Several system plays have flipped over the last 5 years. For example since 2010 a system may trend towards Over, but prior to 2010 it may have trended to the Under. Same with sides. I'm not going to freak out over a couple bad days, but I did mention that I was very interested to see if they continue with their post 2010 trends. So if following, I would reduce my unit size. I have dropped my unit size for the playoffs. I will also include a writeup on each game, explaining the system,and that may help you decide if you want to play/pass/fade.

For today, we have the following plays:

Indiana +7.5 (1U)
Indiana/Toronto UNDER 195 (2U)

- Playing against and UNDER a team that just lost as a fav committing a lot of turnovers. Since 2010 the side is 3-13 and the Under is 11-5. 2003-2009 the numbers are 11-7 side and 12-6 Under. So for the side the numbers have flipped from playing ON to playing AGAINST. The UNDER seems like the best play, as it has been an UNDER play the entire time: 11-5 since 2010, 12-6 prior for a combined 23-11 UNDER since 2003. The UNDER would appear to be the best play from these.

Dallas +13.5 (2U)
Dallas/Oklahoma City UNDER 201.5

- After that putrid performance, its tough to take Dallas. But as is often the case, teams often bounce back after games like that. Its long been one of my favorite situations in any sport. Dallas fits the following: Road Dog, Early series game, just lost as a Road Dog and has lost the last 2 HTH matchups. 27-11 since 2010. Now here is the interesting part: From 2003 -2009 it was the opposite, going 15-33 with a 34-15 Over trend. Total has been neutral since 2010. So we have a Fade prior to 2010, and a Play On since 2010. I'm going with the recent trends and taking Dallas to give a much better performance.

We also have a trend Fading OKC. Fade a Game 2 HF that just won as a HF. 34-15 playing against since 2010. Prior to that: 44-29 playing ON the HF. So again, we have a situation that has completely flipped. I'll take the recent trend and take Dallas. So 2 systems on Dallas since 2010.

The under is a referee play, Dan Crawford is a under ref in the playoffs.

Houston +13.5 (2U)
Houston/Golden St OVER 218 (Only if Curry plays)
- Houston fits the same systems as Dallas. And Dubs fit the same fade system as OKC.

As for the total, I have conflicting information. I have a couple solid OVER systems, going 24-8 since 2010 and around 50% prior. It has to do with a HF that just won scoring quite a bit lower than expected. I also have a nice game 2 system that is 26-7 since 2004/05. The problem is John Goble doing the game at a 8-2 clip to the under during the playoffs. Its not a huge sample size, but he's 3-1 last year, 3-0 the year before that. I'm going to ignore the small sample size of the ref, and go with the 2 systems that have a bigger sample size. So a play on the OVER.

Let's hope we can get back on track. These small sample size systems can be streaky, and are not as reliable as season long systems with a much larger sample size. Good Luck with your action.

 

[Biz]

Dubs OVER Curry or no Curry.

 

[blackchina]

Houston yes but Dallas has no one to help dirk

 

[Biz]

5-1 units so far.

Loved that Dallas play, classic game where the public - once again- puts too much emphasis on a shitty last game. Black china, your comment illustrates that perfectly.

 

[Biz]

5-1 (+6.95)

Overall 7-9 (-.55)

 

[PatsFanatic]

nice bounce back dude

 

[Biz]

TY sir.
That's quite a compliment, coming from a Pats fan to an Oakland fan. cheersgif

 

[PatsFanatic]

haha....I'm a fan of making money the most.

GL

 

[Biz]

Ok a nice bounce back last night. Just 2 games but several systems qualify.

Boston +6 (2U)
- Boston fits the same 2 systems that covered yesterday with Dallas and Houston.

Memphis +18
- Memphis also fits the same 2 systems.

Memphis/San Antonio OVER 187.5
- 30-10 OVER system since 2010. Has to do with a low total, and the lower seeded team turned it over a lot last game.

 

[thesharp09]

So, shouldn't Memphis be a 2U play also? Just want to make sure I am not missing anything. Thanks and let me know.

 

[Biz]

You're right. Thx sharp. Memphis is 2U, thanks for catching that.

 

[r.a.]

Avery Bradley out for Celtics ... concerning for your system? Probably their best defensive player and played more minutes than any other Boston player.

 

[Biz]

The line accounts for any player missing.

Many teams cover during the season missing players. Dallas wasn't at full strength last night, they won as a 13+ dog

 

[TheGiems2k]

Olynyk is out too