Biz bowl thread 2015/16

[Biz 1,470]

I'll post plays, systems, discussion. Anybody want to chime in, be my guest.

Here's one to get started:
Play a favorite of at least 3 points, that lost their previous game by more than 2 TDS (15+). Since 2007:

game type = BG and line <= -3 and p:margin < -14 and season >= 2007
SU: 20-6-0 (12.50, 76.9%) Teaser Records ATS: 19-7-0 (5.48, 73.1%) avg line: -7.0 +6: 19-6-1 (76.0%) -6: 12-13-1 (48.0%) +10: 21-4-1 (84.0%) -10: 8-17-1 (32.0%) O/U: 10-16-0 (-4.25, 38.5%) avg total: 57.3 +6: 5-20-1 (20.0%) -6: 13-13-0 (50.0%) +10: 4-22-0 (15.4%) -10: 14-12-0 (53.8%)

Teams that qualify:
San Jose St -5
Arizona -12
Utah St -7
Marshall -4
UCLA -7
USC -3
Michigan -4

 

[Biz 1,470]

Small sample size but pretty good: 11-2 since 2005

PLAY ON a dog from 3-10 points, previous game favored and lost by more than a FG (4+)

2014: 1-0
2013: 2-0
2012: 1-0
2011: 1-0
2010: 1-0
2009: 0-1
2008: 1-0
2007: 2-0
2006: 0
2005: 2-1

Qualifying Teams:

Georgia Southern +7
Pittsburgh +4

 

[Acebb 2,175]

Biz, teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are on a 20-32 ATS run.

I have to look up who those teams may be this year.

 

[Biz 1,470]

Dog of 2+, Good Defense (<=20.5/gm), Good Net Rush Team (Off 120+, Def <105). Since 2005: 30-9

2014: 2-0
2013: 2-1
2012: 2-1
2011: 3-1
2010: 4-1
2009: 3-2
2008: 3-1
2007: 1-1
2006: 7-1
2005: 3-0

Qualifying Teams:

Wisconsin +3


January Bowl Game, Fav of 3-10, Lost Last Game Did Not Cover By At Least a TD (7.5+): 12-1 since 2005


2014: 1-0
2013: 0-1
2012: 0
2011: 3-0
2010: 1-0
2009: 1-0
2008: 2-0
2007: 2-0
2006: 1-0
2005: 1-0

Qualifying Teams:

Michigan -4

 

[Biz 1,470]

Biz, teams coming off exactly two losses coming into their bowl games are on a 20-32 ATS run.

I have to look up who those teams may be this year.

2 game losing streak??

 

[Acebb 2,175]

Yeah, 2 losses exact. There have been teams that have gotten into bowls off 3 losses in a row.

1st team to fade would be Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl.

Next team to fade would be Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl

Fade Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl

etc

 

[Biz 1,470]

Bowl teams on a 2 game losing streak 27-26 since 2005.

Dogs 19-13
Favs 8-13

Last 5 years dogs a couple games over 50%. Not much here at least according to these numbers.

Where did you find 20-32??

 

[Acebb 2,175]

Biz,
It is something I had in my bowl thread last year, though I'm not sure where I got it from. It went 2-2 last year so what you posted seems more in line. My notes certainly could be incorrect.

 

[Biz 1,470]

I checked the SDQL site and they had similar results.

 

[cloverleaf 0]

KEEP it going men........................

Interesting read.

 

[Biz 1,470]

The only thing I don't like is the limited sample size. There are only so many Bowl games that fit.

 

[METFAN 2,145]

biz

any over/under histories or sites where I might get them

thank you

 

[Biz 1,470]

killersports.com

Enter the sdql language and it will give you the results.

 

[Biz 1,470]

Arizona/New Mexico under

SAN JOSE ST/GEORGIA ST UNDER​

BIZ ST​

OHIO/BIZ ST UNDER​

​

​

ARKANSAS ST/LA TECH UNDER​

UTAH/BYU UNDER​