~More Information From Different Handicappers~ ***COMPLEMENTS FROM ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~*
~More Information From Different Handicappers of Different Games For Week #13~ ***COMPLEMENTS FROM ~Hårr¥THëHÄT~
Joseph D'Amico Dolphins vs Ravens Dolphins +3½
The Miami Dolphins OL has gotten a bit healthier recently, which has played a major factor in the teams current, 6-game SU (5-1 ATS) win streak, while committing just 2 TO's during the victories. Baltimore tops the AFC North (along with Pittsburgh, but beat the Steelers TY) despite averaging a dismal, 19.8 PPG. The Ravens have no ground game to speak of. Miami matches up well here as they possess a Top-10 defense vs. the pass. Speaking of Joe Flacco, the QB is on an 0-8 ATS run as a favorite in the month of December. Baltimore is 5-15 ATS their L20 games played in the month of December while Miami is 4-0 ATS their L4 vs. AFC opponents. Take the Dolphins here.
Tony George Dolphins vs Ravens Dolphins +3½
The Ravens cashed a ticket last week against the hapless Bengals laying 5 points in a game that came down to the wire when Andy Dalton fumbled the game away, meanwhile the Dolphins beat San Fran for their 6th win a row. It is apparent to me that odds makers and sports fans are discounting the job that Adam Gase is doing here in Miami. The Ravens at 6-5 lead their division but their schedule has been weak and they have barely beat lesser teams than Miami.
Miami has a more balanced offensive attack and are running the ball extremely well, taking the heat off their QB and also playing some decent defense. The Ravens have lost to any good team they played this year, beat the Jags by 2 points, beat the Steelers when Big Ben came back to soon and played terrible, and beat the Browns twice. Not a resume that scares me when taking the points, and the KEY in this game, which should be tight, it the hook on the number of 3, which the Ravens are laying 3.5. I think this comes down to the number itself, a 3 point game one way or the other, and having the hook on a fall number is worth taking with a red hot Dolphins team against a beatable opponent on the road.
Remember one thing, you are betting into numbers and not games, and this also may be a strong side in a 2 team 6 point teaser taking the Dolphins to +9.5 and getting through the key numbers of 6 and 7 along the way! The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS with games in December dating back over 2 years, but the tide has changed in Miami and and outright SU win would not surprise me here.
Bryan Leonard Rams vs Patriots -13[ Buy The Hook]
Nobody in the league has been worse in explosive plays over the last month than the Rams, a whopping -9 the past four games. This team just can't put points on the board averaging 12 points per game the last five contests. The Rams have aloso failed to win the turnover battle in 6 of 7 games. When losing the TO battle this season Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS.
New England holds a +35 explosive play advantage over the Rams on the season. With the Pats struggling the past three weeks this team needs to get things right before facing its nemesis Baltimore next Monday night. New England lost the yards per play battle last week against the Jets. In games following a contest where the Pats trailed in that stat this season the team is perfect ATS covering by 10 points per game on average
Brandon Lee Eagles vs Bengals -1½
I'll take the Bengals at home against the Eagles. Cincinnati has been a major disappointment this season and are dealing with some big injuries, but I liked what I saw from this team last week against the Ravens. The Bengals still believe they can get this turned around and fight there way back into the race for the AFC North title. Do to so, this is a game they absolutely have to have. I like their chances against a Eagles team that continues to get a lot of love, despite the fact that they haven't producing on the field, especially on the road. Philadelphia is just 2-6 since their 3-0 start and are just 1-5 on the road. Their loss on Monday Night Football was perceived to be more of the Packers getting things figured out, but I think it was more of how bad the Eagles are playing right now. Give me the Bengals -1.5!
Mike Lundin Broncos vs Jaguars Broncos -3 [ Buy The Hook]
The Denver Broncos are coming off a disappointing 30-27 Sunday night loss to Kansas City. I think the lowly 2-9 Jacksonville Jaguars will pay the price this week. Denver is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a straight up loss and it needs to rack up wins in order to catch the surging Oakland Raiders at the top of the AFC West. Jacksonville has lost six in a row overall and the Jags have an NFL-worst minus-15 in turnover differential this season. Denver's QB Trevor Siemian threw for a personal-best 368 yards and three touchdowns last week but sustained a foot injury and has been limited at practice this week. It's not the Broncos' offense that will win them this game though, but their D. Look for Denver to win and cover the spread at EverBank Field this Sunday.
Ray Monohan Giants vs Steelers New York Giants +6
The Giants catch points on the road against the Steelers and they have some value here. New York is no pushover on either side of the ball. With playmakers like Odell Beckham Jr. and Eli Manning, the Giants offense can strike at any moment with the big play.
As for the defense, they are right up there with the tops in the league. The Giants are averaging just 19.4 points against on the season. Expect them to get plenty of pressure in the Steelers back field and force them into some difficult 3rd down situations, where the Giants really flourish.
Some trends to note. Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
New York has plenty of talent all around. They enter play red hot, winners of 6 in a row as well. Given the momentum they have here, they'll have their chances to steal this one outright here.
The points are the safe way to go.
Bill Biles Bucs vs Chargers Bucs +3 1/2
Winners of 3 straight the Bucs are playing great football. The defense has really turned it around as they completely shut down the Seahawks last week. Bucs have the offensive weapons to go into San Diego and compete and keep the game close and even win.
Pick= Bucs + 3 1/2
Brandon Powell 49ers vs Bears 49ers -1 I am backing the San Francisco 49ers Money line -125 Colin Kaepernick has played very well since taking over for the 49ers and his play has steadily improved as well. I think that the Bears got their one good game out of Matt Barkley, I expect him to put up 14-20 points today. Both these teams are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. Look for the 49ers to take this game by at least 1 touchdown. Take San Francisco ML -125
Teddy Covers Panthers vs Seahawks Take Seattle - Carolina Under 44
Great quarterbacks can only play like great quarterbacks when they have some semblance of an offensive line to protect them. When these two teams met twice last year, both offensive lines were in good shape.
Russell Wilson and Cam Newton had a running game that balanced their downfield passing attack. Seattle scored 23 and 24 points in those two games, but they lost them both in SU fashion, cashing a pair of Over tickets in the process.
That was then. This is now. The Seahawks offensive line is in complete disarray right now. Three rookies started on that OL last week. They’ll be starting their fifth different combo of offensive linemen this week. Offensive coordinator Darrel Bevell, talking about the struggles of his OL:“We are just trying to find the best five guys. If it changes every week, then it changes every week.”
Russell Wilson got sacked six times last week, but it was far worse than that – Wilson was running for his life, quite literally, on just about every snap. That game marked the THIRD time this year in which the Seahawks offense didn’t reach the end zone even once. Expecting an offensive explosion from the Seahawks this week is an exercise in optimism!
But the Panthers offensive line is in even worse shape than the Seahawks OL! Four of their five starters have been officially ruled ‘Out’ for Sunday Night’s affair. Michael Oher didn’t make the trip out West. Ryan Kalil and Gino Gradkowski got hurt last week against the Raiders. The Panthers were forced to make a signing from the Cleveland Browns practice squad just to have enough healthy bodies here. I don’t care how you spin it -- you don’t want to be bringing guys in from the Browns practice squad in Week 13 at Seattle!
Ron Rivera knows what’s coming; talking about his offensive line woes: “It’s about as catastrophe as you can get. I mean, when you look at the losses we’ve had this year. But our coaches will coach up the guys that are available to us.” Against the Seahawks elite stop unit, playing in front of that 12th man crowd, expect Carolina, like Seattle, to struggle to score touchdowns. Take The Under.
Rob Vinciletti Broncos vs Jaguars Broncos -3 [ Buy The Hook If You Have Too]
The NFL comp play is on Denver at 1:00 eastern. Denver will have Paxton Lynch playing today and will respond big off the home loss to KC. The Broncos have covered 9 straight as a road favorite after a game where they controlled the ball for 34 or more minutes. Defending champs that are not laying more than have cashed 22 of 25 times off a favored loss vs a team off a spread win like the Jags. Denver has covered 3 of 4 as a road favorite in this range and Jacksonville has failed to cover 5 of 7 as a home dog in this range. Look for Denver to bounce back particularly on defense off the tough OT Division loss to KC. Play on Denver.
Dave Price Eagles vs Bengals Philadelphia Eagles +1 1/2
The Key: The Cincinnati Bengals should not be favored here. They are in a bad place mentally right now after their 14-19 loss at Baltimore last week essentially sealed their fate. They sit at just 3-7-1 on the season and have no shot of making the playoffs. That's especially the case since they are without their two best playmakers on offense in AJ Green and Giovani Bernard due to season-ending injuries. I don't expect them to show up at all Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles still have a shot at making the playoffs. They are 5-6 on the season and just 1.5 games back of the Redskins for the final wild card spot. They will show up this weekend because of it. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS in all games this season. Take Philadelphia +1 1/2
Scott Rickenbach Redskins vs Cardinals Game total Over 48 1/2 This total has dropped from as high as a 50.5 to as low as a 48 as of early Sunday morning and this has opened up great value on the over. Washington has gone over in 9 of their 11 games this season and they come into this game with extra rest. The Redskins have had a few extra days off since the played at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day and the Skins had over 500 yards of offense against the Cowboys. Their offense ranks as one of the best in the league this season but the Washington defense continues to be an issue and I am expecting big things from the Cardinals offense today as they return to Arizona after a dismal 19-point effort at Atlanta last week. We are getting some extra line value here because the Cardinals are 6-0 to the under in home games this season but I see that streak coming to an end. The Cards offense will respond against the subpar defense of the Redskins (ranked near bottom of the league) but Arizona's D will not be able to stop Kirk Cousins and Company as they are not only one of the hottest but also one of the overall best-performing offenses in the NFL with 426.7 yards per game. Also, the Cardinals are 5-0 to the over when they are at home and off of a game where they allowed more than 35 points. After giving up 38 at Atlanta last week, look for a shootout with Washington this week.
Jimmy Boyd Chiefs vs Falcons Chiefs + 4 1/2 or + 5
I’ll take the points with Kansas City on the road against the Falcons. The Chiefs are tied for the 4th best record in the league, yet no one wants to give them any respect. Which is a little bit surprising given KC is now 18-3 in their last 21 regular season games.
I know the Falcons have an elite offense, but the Chiefs are trending up on the defensive side of the ball. A big part of that is the return of star outside linebacker Justin Houston. He was dominant against Denver and that dynamic pass rush is something they have been lacking.
Keep in mind the Chiefs were missing two key players on defense last week. One being outside linebacker Dee Ford, who is T-2nd in the NFL with 10 sacks. He's expected to be back in action this week. These two are going to live in Atlanta's backfield and really make life miserable for Matt Ryan, who likes to throw the ball down the field.
I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to completely shut down the Falcons, but they can keep them from going off. That should be all the offense needs to keep this game close and potentially win outright. While KC’s offense is limited, this Atlanta defense is one they can have success against. The Falcons rank 27th in total defense (381.0 ypg) and 29th in scoring defense (27.5 ppg).
Keep in mind this is also an Atlanta defense that has recently loss two of their top defensive players. Shutdown corner Desmond Trufant is likely out the rest of the year. He’s by far their best cover guy. They will also be without defensive end Adrian Clayborn for an extended period. A big loss, as he’s second on the team with 4.5 sacks. It’s also worth pointing out the Chiefs have been road covering machines under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 16-6 ATS on the road after the 1st month of the season under Reid. KC is also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams allowing 24.0 or more ppg. On the flip side of this, Atlanta has struggled to cover as a favorite under Dan Quinn. They are just 3-11 ATS as a favorite since he took over as head coach. Take Kansas City + 4 1/2 or + 5
Jack Jones Panthers vs Seahawks Seahawks/Panthers OVER 44 I think this is going to be a high-scoring affair Sunday night. Most have expected defensive battles when these teams have gotten together recently, but that hasn’t been the case at all. In fact, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 48, 50 and 55 points. All three meetings have come since the 2015 playoffs, so they are pretty recent.
They combined for 48 points in that playoff game in 2015. They combined for 50 points in a 27-23 Carolina victory in Seattle last season. And they combined for 55 points in a 31-24 home victory for the Panthers in the NFC Championship Game last year. And both defenses were better in those three games than they are right now.
Injuries have decimated both of these defenses. The Panthers are without Luke Kuechly, their best player, and just gave up 35 points to the Raiders last week in their first game without him. They have one of the worst secondary’s in the NFL as this unit is young and inexperienced and has been torched all season. The Seahawks have some serious injuries of their own on defense. Both Michael Bennett and Earl Thomas are questionable to play this week after missing last week’s game against the Bucs. Bennett is their best player along the defensive line, while Thomas is one of the most feared safety’s in the NFL.
This Carolina secondary is giving up 67.1% completions, 272 passing yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt this season. Russell Wilson will get right back on track in this one and have a big day through the air. Seattle hasn’t been as strong as normal in the secondary this year, allowing 62.8% completions and 235 yards per game. I think Cam Newton will have some success, too.
The Seahawks have been at their best at home offensively as they are putting up 26.4 points, 364 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. Carolina still boasts an elite offense that is scoring 25.1 points per game on the season, including 27.2 points per game on the road this year. But their defense has surrendered 25.0 points per game overall and 31.0 points per game on the road.
Scott Spreitzer Texans vs Packers Texans +6 1/2 We're recommending a play on the Houston Texans plus the points on Sunday. This number jumped virtually as soon as Green Bay disposed of Philadelphia on Monday night. The Packers were as low as a 4-point favorite, but climbed to as high as 6 1/2 and even 7, by Tuesday. Once again, Green Bay didn't run well in their win over the Eagles, gaining just 74 yards on 28 carries, but Aaron Rodgers had a big night through the air. Houston's strength is their pass defense, where they rank 5th in the league, allowing just 209.2 yards passing per game. The Packer pass defense can be permissive and let's not forget they allowed 42, 47, 31, & 33 points in their four games before beating Philly. Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota recently combined for 670 yards passing, 7 TDs and no INTs, over a 2-week stretch against the Packers. Brock Osweiler has his troubles passing downfield, there's no denying his weaknesses, but he shouldn't be overwhelmed by the defense he'll face in this one. The Pack have covered just one of their last five when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night appearance. And finally, the Texans have bounced back well off a bad game, currently on a 6-0 ATS run following a game where they scored no more than 14 points, including 3-0 SU & ATS this season. We're recommending a play on the Texans plus the points.
Marc Lawrence Dolphins vs Ravens Dolphins +3 1/2 Edges - Dolphins 5-1 ATS last 6 games in Baltimore; and 14-8 ATS away during December since 2004. Ravens: Flacco 3-13 ATS last 16 starts in December, including 0-8 ATS as a favorite. With the Ravens 0-5 ATS in their 2nd to last home game the last five years, we recommend a play on Miami
