Bill Connelly's previews

[rolltide]

he finished each MAC team and here's his breakdown of the conference:
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ball-power-rankings-toledo-wmu-niu-miami-ohio

- links to each team page is on that site. Essentially he has a clear top 4 (Toledo, WMU, Miami OH, No ILL) and a clear bottom 2 (Buff, Kent St)

interesting note is that Toledo has finished either 1st or 2nd in S&P ranking for the MAC and have won ZERO conference titles. This should be the year they win the MAC as they bring back the NCAA's #2 passer, Logan Woodside. 10-2 or 11-1 (will lose at Miami FL) is most likely record for 2017 and if they do upset Miami could play in a NY6 bowl

 

[rolltide]

his preseason 1-130 http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...24/2017-college-football-rankings-projections

1	Alabama	SEC	1	1	1	34
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	2	3	3	26
3	Florida State	ACC	3	2	7	25.7
4	LSU	SEC	5	8	2	23.3
5	Oklahoma	Big 12	11	6	5	22.8
6	Clemson	ACC	13	5	13	22.3
7	USC	Pac-12	7	10	14	22
8	Penn State	Big Ten	18	4	29	21.4
9	Auburn	SEC	9	12	23	20
10	Michigan	Big Ten	4	13	17	19.8
11	Wisconsin	Big Ten	36	11	15	18.6
12	Stanford	Pac-12	16	14	6	18.6
13	Washington	Pac-12	28	9	39	18.1
14	Louisville	ACC	34	7	36	18
15	Florida	SEC	8	15	18	17.8
16	Texas	Big 12	19	16	34	14.8
17	Notre Dame	Indies	10	29	9	14.7
18	Miami	ACC	17	20	37	13.5
19	Texas A&M	SEC	12	34	11	13.4
20	Georgia	SEC	6	41	8	13.4
21	TCU	Big 12	27	21	25	12.9
22	Oklahoma State	Big 12	40	18	16	12.7
23	Oregon	Pac-12	23	43	4	11.7
24	Tennessee	SEC	14	37	26	11.2
25	Virginia Tech	ACC	37	25	33	11
26	Ole Miss	SEC	20	42	20	10.8
27	NC State	ACC	46	17	63	9.5
28	Baylor	Big 12	24	56	10	9.1
29	Boise State	MWC	64	28	19	8.8
30	Mississippi State	SEC	31	48	24	8.6
31	Georgia Tech	ACC	54	27	38	8.6
32	Arkansas	SEC	26	51	21	8.6
33	Pittsburgh	ACC	33	45	43	7.8
34	UCLA	Pac-12	15	70	22	7.5
35	Kansas State	Big 12	68	26	31	7.5
36	South Carolina	SEC	21	64	28	6.8
37	Northwestern	Big Ten	48	31	61	6.6
38	North Carolina	ACC	29	58	42	6.5
39	Indiana	Big Ten	61	23	75	6.5
40	Washington State	Pac-12	51	30	81	6.2
41	Kentucky	SEC	30	44	86	5.9
42	Nebraska	Big Ten	22	72	32	5.6
43	Colorado State	MWC	69	19	97	5.2
44	Michigan State	Big Ten	25	79	12	5.1
45	Utah	Pac-12	35	61	44	5
46	BYU	Indies	55	52	35	4.8
47	Minnesota	Big Ten	52	47	55	4.4
48	Iowa	Big Ten	41	60	48	4.4
49	Houston	AAC	56	46	50	4.3
50	Colorado	Pac-12	47	35	102	4.2
51	Western Kentucky	CUSA	91	24	64	4.1
52	San Diego State	MWC	74	32	62	4
53	Missouri	SEC	50	62	27	3.9
54	Oregon State	Pac-12	43	59	57	3.6
55	California	Pac-12	53	54	51	3.5
56	South Florida	AAC	70	33	79	3.4
57	Iowa State	Big 12	49	50	71	3.4
58	Arizona State	Pac-12	38	75	30	3.3
59	Toledo	MAC	81	40	40	3.3
60	Syracuse	ACC	62	49	60	3
61	Memphis	AAC	65	36	89	3
62	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	112	22	80	2.7
63	Vanderbilt	SEC	59	53	67	2.4
64	Wake Forest	ACC	66	39	94	2.4
65	Duke	ACC	39	69	66	2.4
66	Texas Tech	Big 12	45	67	52	2.2
67	Temple	AAC	79	38	74	1.7
68	Arizona	Pac-12	42	76	45	1.7
69	West Virginia	Big 12	44	81	47	0.6
70	Virginia	ACC	58	73	69	-0.4
71	Navy	AAC	83	63	54	-1.1
72	Maryland	Big Ten	32	94	77	-1.5
73	Utah State	MWC	109	66	41	-1.7
74	Western Michigan	MAC	73	68	88	-2.1
75	Cincinnati	AAC	67	83	49	-2.3
76	Boston College	ACC	71	78	58	-2.5
77	Tulsa	AAC	87	65	76	-2.5
78	Central Florida	AAC	60	87	70	-2.6
79	Troy	Sun Belt	94	57	104	-3.3
80	Wyoming	MWC	110	55	112	-3.9
81	SMU	AAC	77	80	96	-4.9
82	Louisiana Tech	CUSA	89	90	65	-5.4
83	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	99	82	68	-5.5
84	Southern Miss	CUSA	82	84	92	-5.7
85	Illinois	Big Ten	57	107	73	-6
86	Northern Illinois	MAC	122	88	56	-6.4
87	Purdue	Big Ten	72	96	82	-6.6
88	Miami (OH)	MAC	88	77	116	-6.7
89	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	84	89	101	-6.9
90	Ball State	MAC	96	91	90	-7.1
91	UTSA	CUSA	86	85	110	-7.2
92	Rutgers	Big Ten	63	109	84	-7.3
93	Old Dominion	CUSA	118	74	122	-7.7
94	Tulane	AAC	93	86	119	-8.1
95	Bowling Green	MAC	98	102	59	-8.4
96	Eastern Michigan	MAC	126	71	128	-8.7
97	Central Michigan	MAC	106	93	105	-8.8
98	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	95	113	46	-9
99	Florida Atlantic	CUSA	80	97	107	-9
100	East Carolina	AAC	76	115	72	-9.3
101	Marshall	CUSA	78	118	53	-9.4
102	Army	Indies	103	92	126	-10
103	Ohio	MAC	121	101	91	-10.4
104	Florida International	CUSA	92	98	117	-10.4
105	San Jose State	MWC	100	110	85	-10.8
106	North Texas	CUSA	114	100	106	-11.1
107	Kansas	Big 12	75	114	109	-11.2
108	South Alabama	Sun Belt	111	104	103	-11.3
109	Hawaii	MWC	120	95	121	-11.4
110	New Mexico	MWC	102	103	123	-11.8
111	Massachusetts	Indies	97	99	127	-11.9
112	UL-Lafayette	Sun Belt	116	111	95	-12
113	Georgia State	Sun Belt	113	105	120	-12.4
114	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	130	108	87	-12.5
115	Fresno State	MWC	85	124	78	-12.6
116	Air Force	MWC	115	116	93	-12.7
117	Nevada	MWC	107	121	83	-12.9
118	UNLV	MWC	90	117	114	-13.1
119	Idaho	Sun Belt	125	106	125	-14
120	Rice	CUSA	124	120	100	-14.3
121	UL-Monroe	Sun Belt	108	123	111	-15.3
122	Akron	MAC	129	119	113	-15.6
123	Kent State	MAC	128	122	99	-15.6
124	New Mexico State	Sun Belt	127	112	129	-15.9
125	Connecticut	AAC	104	127	98	-16.5
126	UTEP	CUSA	123	125	118	-16.8
127	Charlotte	CUSA	119	126	130	-20
128	Buffalo	MAC	117	128	108	-20.1
129	Texas State	Sun Belt	101	129	115	-22.3
130	UAB	CUSA	105	130	124	-28.2

 

[rolltide]

His AAC conference predictions are ready ... has Houston falling to 3rd

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...tball-power-rankings-2017-memphis-usf-houston

Uconn will be absolutely horrendous

 

[rolltide]

Here was his MWC setup ... http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...all-power-rankings-colorado-state-boise-state

Bama gets one from each predicted side of the table with both bottom team, Fresno, and top team, Colorado State, coming to Ttown this year

 

[GoSooners]

Kansas State is too low..

 

[rolltide]

Kansas State is too low..

well, you will be able to read his preview on them very soon. He just started in B12 team previews...


Baylor: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo.../baylor-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster


Iowa St: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...a-state-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster


Tex Tech: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...as-tech-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster


Kansas: http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo.../kansas-football-2017-preview-schedule-roster

 

[Conan]

Or. St. and Cal are side by side (54)
They should be ranked at least 20 apart.

Gary Anderson has been making big strides with the Beavers
and Justin Forsett has replaced Sonny Dykes at Cal and has
inherited an empty cupboard particularly on defense where
there is no talent thanks to Dykes'

 

[Conan]

Oops... the name is Justin Wilcox -- a former Duck

 

[cloverleaf]

I disagree with UAB being the 130 rated team.

Even though UAB didn't play any games last year, they still practiced and played scrimmage games. Better players than most expect and a very good coaching staff.

Having the likes of Texas State, Charlotte, UConn, Buffalo and a few more ahead of UAB doesn't make sense to me.

 

[DeadLast]

I disagree with UAB being the 130 rated team.

Even though UAB didn't play any games last year, they still practiced and played scrimmage games. Better players than most expect and a very good coaching staff.

Having the likes of Texas State, Charlotte, UConn, Buffalo and a few more ahead of UAB doesn't make sense to me.

I don't know much about UAB but someone who does is not very optimistic about their chances this year. In his opinion, more than 2 wins will be a successful season.

They have a very favorable schedule. They open with a bad SWAC team (Bama A&M).

They also play 6 horrible Div 1 teams - N Texas, Charlotte, Rice, UTSA, UTEP and Coastal Carolina.

Hard to believe they won't win a few of those even if they are ranked 130th.

 

[rolltide]

I disagree with UAB being the 130 rated team.

Even though UAB didn't play any games last year, they still practiced and played scrimmage games. Better players than most expect and a very good coaching staff.

Having the likes of Texas State, Charlotte, UConn, Buffalo and a few more ahead of UAB doesn't make sense to me.

we'll be pretty damn bad. Our two serious standout recruits are never going to see the field. Greg Bryant (former ND) was shot and killed last year and DJ Hall just flunked out. So right now looking at a walk-on as our starting RB. QB a huge question mark with Erdely likely to start but he's a Mid Tenn reject so can't expect anything big out of the offense which fumbled 7 times in the spring game. And, considering we were a run-first team under Clark and now our weakest position is probably RB I'm not expecting much out of the season.


we absolutely have one of the best coaching staffs in the conference so should be able to sneak a few wins. Alabama a&m is a must win just to get things rolling, especially since it might be the only win of the year. Coastal is no joke and our next two home games (MTSU, LaTech) are basically unwinnable. So either need to snag road wins, which is very tough, or beat Rice at home in November for that 2nd or 3rd win.


considering we are ranked 130 by BC and we get to play #126 and #127 (on road) and #115 and #120 (Coastal and Rice) at home we have a chance at a few wins. Most likely it is Alabama A&M, Coastal, and Rice for a 3-9 with, max, 4-8...but I think better shot at 1-11 than 4-8.


crazy to think what could have been in 2015 and 2016 .... had a really good team, great coaching staff, incredible RB (howard now on bears), great qb (briscoe - 2016 FCS top offensive player), and conference's best defensive player (Ganus - transferred to UGA and was their team MVP). oh well

 

[Shua12]

Good read.

 

[doglover]

I've just been reading Connelly's book: Study Hall - College Football, Its Stats And Its Stories. Even though it's a couple years old (2013) he has some great insights, and a unique perspective on useful advanced statistical applications for college football. I try to read as much as I can in the off-season, and this one is a "must read".