Thanks for the one-ups. I'm flattered. Here are my thoughts going into the game (copy pasted from an inbox message) if it will help sway someone on the fence about the game.
Anyone who follows Houston closely (me) knows that the fins only dismantled us because we are probably the worst team in the NFL and then some. We are bad on every single front. Atlanta blew us out 40-0 until they put their back-ups in. Something is really wrong with us. So the public and the books saw this, hence the low Miami line compared to everyone thinking they were poor in the beginning (or Jets; read below).
My guess is that it will probably be a blow out. With the line set like it is, they are basically saying the dolphins are better than the Jets (got the line @ +8.5 JETS) because they dismantled Houston and had a good game before that. I'm not buying it. I think the Jets are a much better team on almost every front. I think the pats run off with this one. A touchdown is a lot of value. I got the line @ -7.5, bought it down to 7 because I like to buy at 3 mostly, but occasionally 7. Chances of a push @ 3 are 10% and @ 7 6% so for that reason I favor 3 more than 7. It's not profitable to buy off any other numbers.
I bought this one down to be safe but I probably didn't need to. The dolphins are playing great and beat the pats last year in the opening game, then lost to them the second game by blow-out. New head coach for Dolphins is a big unknown. Is he good or is he just running hot? Who knows. For those reasons I bought it down.
I don't think we will see 7 but if we do I'll double up. I think it's only going up from here. Even though I think the Pats should blow them out, what they should do and might do are two different things so it's just my best guess. Medium-large chance of blow out, small-small/med chance they keep it close, rare that they upset. BOL!
