BIG's TNF and Sunday Picks

bradyisgod · Oct 22, 2015

TNF
Sea -6.5

Sunday
Wash -3
St. Louis -5
NY Jets +8.5

I'll probably have a few other plays for Sunday. Wouldn't have played Seattle but scoped out the injuries for 49ers, it looks like Boldin and Hyde will be playing at half health which is a nice edge for the Seahawks cover. I think it's reasonable for under a touchdown but I'm not going crazy with this game as I don't see a ton of value in this bet (+1 unit) with the way Seattle is playing. It's so close that if this goes over a touchdown I probably don't play it or play 49ers. The line is almost set perfectly. Hope everyone is having a good week and cashes their bets. BOL!

chonce · Oct 22, 2015

I love STL! I am on SEA -5.5 but don't feel great about it (still sticking with it). And I feel the Jets should cover easily too, but I do sort of smell a rat -- I don't know one person who is taking NE. How about the UNDER

DC. · Oct 22, 2015

Me smells a pats blowout to be honest

bradyisgod · Oct 22, 2015

DC. said:
Me smells a pats blowout to be honest

I don't see it. The Jets usually play the Pats close and Brady is facing the second best pass defense in the league. Against mediocre pass defenses, maybe, but I doubt it's going to get out of control vs. Revis and the Jets. I'm all for betting the Pats but if I'm going to pick a team to play it close against them once this year - that team is going to be the Jets (or Packers). With that said, if Brady goes off at home it won't surprise anyone. I don't like betting against Brady at home, but I've watched too many Jets/Pats games to know that they usually play really close. Do not expect the Jets to win outright, just cover. BOL buddy!

indiana · Oct 22, 2015

B/G...........good luck with your weeks action............indy

bradyisgod · Oct 22, 2015

indiana said:
B/G...........good luck with your weeks action............indy

Thanks Indy. BOL to you too!

TomandJerry · Oct 22, 2015

good luck tonight and the rest of tha week.

bradyisgod · Oct 22, 2015

Tom and Jerry said:
good luck tonight and the rest of tha week.

Thanks T&J, you too!

Maybe the Jet's game is just too juicy and I'm a sucker for it. DC can come back in here and say I told you so! Irony, given I find every reason to back the Pats

bradyisgod · Oct 22, 2015

Throwing in a much safer play to go along with the -6.5 line I got Seattle at. I'm just not confident yet in Seattle's ability to cover the spread, let alone close out games. Need to see a big game from them (and wagner) tonight. Getting cold feet on this game. I have two bets for two units total tonight:

SEA -6.5
SEA moneyline (-260)

BOL guys!

HollywoodCG · Oct 23, 2015

nice work brother like usual. impressive records

nbvikes · Oct 23, 2015

nice!

CruzControl · Oct 23, 2015

All 3 of those Sunday plays are on my lean list. I'm hoping Jets go to 10 by game time. If so, it'll be POY type wager for me. I'm pretty sure it will continue to head in that direction.

captn_jay · Oct 23, 2015

Thanks BradyisGod for yesterday's winner. Good luck to you Sunday.

bradyisgod · Oct 23, 2015

Thanks fellas! Good luck to you guys this Sunday.

chonce · Oct 23, 2015

CruzControl said:
All 3 of those Sunday plays are on my lean list. I'm hoping Jets go to 10 by game time. If so, it'll be POY type wager for me. I'm pretty sure it will continue to head in that direction.

Line has moved down. On sites that measure consensus it seems the Jets are getting more than 60 percent of the tickets (don't know about the dollar amount) -- this borders on a reverse line movement play on NE. I liked NYJ and the UNDER when I first saw it, but I am rethinking this very much.

TheComputerGroup · Oct 23, 2015

CruzControl said:
All 3 of those Sunday plays are on my lean list. I'm hoping Jets go to 10 by game time. If so, it'll be POY type wager for me. I'm pretty sure it will continue to head in that direction.

Jets +7.5 from +9.5 at bookmaker......you will NOT see +10 at "reputable books"

bradyisgod · Oct 23, 2015

chonce said:
Line has moved down. On sites that measure consensus it seems the Jets are getting more than 60 percent of the tickets (don't know about the dollar amount) -- this borders on a reverse line movement play on NE. I liked NYJ and the UNDER when I first saw it, but I am rethinking this very much.

I've psyched myself out so much with line movement and who the public is on etc. in the past. I think this is a spot where I'm just going to ignore it all. I've watched these two teams play a lot and I have a feeling this game will be close like it normally is. The Jets have a solid D this year. I'm sticking to the game plan. Jets +8.5, I'll take the points here. I still expect NE to win but a Jets upset wouldn't be impossible.

Capping anything more than a touchdown in the NFL is a nightmare. Great spot IMO.

bradyisgod · Oct 23, 2015

Adding in my only teaser of the year most likely.

NE -1
ARI -0.5

Super square but it just makes sense. Got it at -110 on bookmaker I believe, I'll have to go double check. I see a lot of value here, the lines both seem too low. I see the Jets/Pats game being close with a Pats win, not because I like them, but they usually come out on top against the Jets. I still think +8.5 is too many points given the history of these two teams.

chonce · Oct 23, 2015

chonce said:
Line has moved down. On sites that measure consensus it seems the Jets are getting more than 60 percent of the tickets (don't know about the dollar amount) -- this borders on a reverse line movement play on NE. I liked NYJ and the UNDER when I first saw it, but I am rethinking this very much.

I am an idiot -- the line is moving the way the money is pushing it. Still the book might be in the rare situation of needing the Pats and at least one book is down to 7.5. Maybe the public starts flooding in favor of NE, but it sure doesn't seem even the most square betters are wanting to lay the points. Of course, recent history indicates a close game, so on Xs and Ox I see the argument. Sort of the like the Pats/Colts history. But I have talked myself off the Jets. I might take the FH under if I can find a 24.5.

chonce · Oct 23, 2015

bradyisgod said:
Adding in my only teaser of the year most likely.

NE -1
ARI -0.5

Super square but it just makes sense. Got it at -110 on bookmaker I believe, I'll have to go double check. I see a lot of value here, the lines both seem too low. I see the Jets/Pats game being close with a Pats win, not because I like them, but they usually come out on top against the Jets. I still think +8.5 is too many points given the history of these two teams.

Pats SU home record works for you. Haven't capped ARI/BAL yet.