BIG's TNF and Sunday Picks 11.05.15

[bradyisgod]

TNF
Bengals -11.5

Sunday
Falcons -6.5 (+2 units, took half point -125)
Denver -4.5
Rams +2
Carolina +3 (bought half point)
NO -7 (took half point -125)

Updating on my phone. Brief write ups later. Feel like anyone who takes the Browns is throwing up a Hail Mary because the line is DD. I don't bet DD games often and I'd only go a unit here or less, but I like this spot. BOL!

 

[chonce]

With you on ATL (though I got it pre Blaine at -4.5) and STL. On the other side with GB and Cinci. GB was humiliated last week and I expect a bounce back. I like the Panthers but saw some pretty major playcalling gaffes that cost them a cover (and my UNDER) last game.

GL on NO and Denver. I don't think I am betting the Denver game but as a Pats fan I can't lose -- either the Broncos lose and help the Pat's seeding, or Indy continues its rapid descent.

 

[HollywoodCG]

good luck bro im on the brownies tonight... not smart going against u tho... I just feel Bengals have to stop covering soon

 

[indiana]

B/G.........good looking card..........good luck with all your action this week end............indy

 

[Baldy8]

Good luck. I'm all in on NO this week.

 

[bradyisgod]

good luck bro im on the brownies tonight... not smart going against u tho... I just feel Bengals have to stop covering soon

Hey, you're getting 12 points so it's never bad. There are a lot of sharps who just find lines 10+ and lay money on the dog regardless of any other factor. This game can easily be covered by the browns if Manziel shows up. It's anyone's guess if Cinci tries to blow them out or just win and not cover. My guess is the former but it's just a prediction. BOL CG!!

 

[bradyisgod]

With you on ATL (though I got it pre Blaine at -4.5) and STL. On the other side with GB and Cinci. GB was humiliated last week and I expect a bounce back. I like the Panthers but saw some pretty major playcalling gaffes that cost them a cover (and my UNDER) last game.

GL on NO and Denver. I don't think I am betting the Denver game but as a Pats fan I can't lose -- either the Broncos lose and help the Pat's seeding, or Indy continues its rapid descent.

Sweet! I had Green Bay penciled in and I ended up buying out my previous card (thanks to a poster on RX). He made some good points about Carolina having an eerily similar defense and you're getting points + home field vs a GB team who does not like the road/does not play well vs. good D lines. Made me discount double check my thought process. It's a game I was thinking of passing on, went from a slight lean GB to a slight lean Car. Not going over a unit and don't see the bet being hugely +EV on either side. From the models I've run it has Car being a slight favorite to win straight up. I can see a case to be made for betting both sides.

Good luck this weekend buddy!

 

[justanobserver]

Always good to be on the same side, gl!

 

[United]

Good luck Big.

 

[bradyisgod]

Thanks JOA, United, Baldy8 and Indy.

I have been getting a little unlucky with the PITT/CAR plays last week. Cover both if Bell doesn't get hurt early (most likely) and Cam Newton decides to not drop the ball on the goal line. But that's football - coulda, woulda, shoulda. I'll be on both sides of that so it evens out. Tonight's a toss up with the line as high as it is and don't advise going big on this game, no more than a unit. Testing my ability to cap some higher lines tonight. Good luck to both sides.

 

[JJphilly]

I always check out your weekly plays and I hate seeing this week that u like carolina..I took the packers and made it my biggest bet to date..I may have to buy some back now..anyway bol buddy

 

[bradyisgod]

I always check out your weekly plays and I hate seeing this week that u like carolina..I took the packers and made it my biggest bet to date..I may have to buy some back now..anyway bol buddy

Thanks, I'm flattered. I like your plays.

On Packers - I wouldn't buy much back. My original bet was the Packers and a lot of good cappers are on them. Go with your gut. I'm only on the game for a unit to test myself with two good teams playing (I don't bet the playoffs). If I weren't experimenting this game would be a pass. It's really close. Stick with packers, it's anyone's guess as to if they have the same problems on the road against good D lines or they come back strong off a blow-out. Both theories make sense.

 

[chonce]

Not sure where all these 13.5 and 14s are coming from. I haven't see a price better than 13 -110. Do people forget to include the (-130) after their numbers?

http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=47050&sport=NFL

 

[bradyisgod]

Not sure where all these 13.5 and 14s are coming from. I haven't see a price better than 13 -110. Do people forget to include the (-130) after their numbers?

http://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=47050&sport=NFL

I was just thinking about how people were getting anything over 13 without buying points. Guess it didn't matter anyways.

 

[Greenbacks]

Good job brady.....Love those Rams on Sunday.

Good luck!

 

[Dexter03]

damn bro.. u are killing it. great job

 

[bradyisgod]

Thanks GB2 and Dexter.

My play of the week is out of all things, a teaser. Teasers are widely regarded as sucker bets but there's a time and place for them. Not that it matters but I'm 1-0 in them, this may be my last. I know as much or more about this New England team than most and teasers with New England + Add any team here that most likely covers, has been a very profitable form of betting for a lot of cappers this year given how dominant NE has been.

Bet of the week:
NE -7, ATL PK -105 (+2 units)

Been waiting for the line to get right and to get NE at a touchdown and ATL at a PK makes this the right time to buy. I don't like calling plays a lock in the NFL because anything can happen but this is as close to one as you'll find. I got this play at bookmaker.

As far as the GB game is concerned - throwing caution to the wind for anyone reading this on the fence. Do not go big on this game. Keep it to a unit if you HAVE to bet it. The word is out that GB has some injuries and this is the reason for their sloppy performance against Denver (not knocking Denver's D). If the Packers were healthy this game doesn't look so one sided. I have a SLIGHT lean to CAR and if you are not sure just pass the game. This is an incredibly hard game to cap and the line is set perfectly. Nobody wants to bet against Rodgers to lose two games (off a blowout loss) nor do they want to bet against the red hot Panthers with home field. I don't see a lot of value in this game, do not go crazy on this one. I am on the Panthers for one unit to test my ability to cap the playoffs as I currently do not see value in most playoff games when the line is set pretty spot on as opposed to the bigger line differences and higher line movement that the season offers.

Hope everyone has a great weekend!

 

[bradyisgod]

And that's it for me (hard to pass up NE, Dallas, TB). No more bets this week, although, if the line comes to under two TD's for NE I'll put one unit on it. Bet too many games last week (with some bad luck). That's not bad but betting less games + more units is a much better way to go instead of getting cocky and trying to cap them all.

 

[bradyisgod]

Cleaning this thread up with my total picks in one post:

TNF
Bengals -11.5

Sunday
Falcons -6.5 (+2 units, took half point -125)
Denver -4.5
Rams +2
Carolina +3 (bought half point)
NO -7 (took half point -125)
Bet of the week:
NE -7, ATL PK -105 (+2 units) - 7 pt teaser

Adding:
NE -13.5 -115 (bought half point) - Line was only -115 on book maker to get it under a TD. I don't like buying points if the juice is over -125, I'll occasionally buy at -130 if I have a strong feeling but after that buying becomes less attractive given risk to reward ratio.

Buying a lot of half points this week. It's been really working for me this year so far and I see no reason to stop when you can get it between 115-125. You don't win quite as much but it solidifies your bets when teams play close or you are unsure of the game. Just one of those weeks that buying the half point on 4 games looked attractive (high lines/close games). BOL this weekend!

 

[varkeyboy]

Great call on Cincy! Ass whoopin. Always nice to see a win like that....and icing on the cake cuz i have Eifert on my fantasy team! =)