CAR ML (-190) 2 units
Under 23 first half (-130) 1 unit
Most first downs - Carolina (-150) 1 unit
CAR ML - I think my favorite play was taking CAR -3.5 on line open and possibly buying down, but I fell asleep at the wheel and saw only 5's and up. Before we get into a small game breakdown, right off the bat we have a nice stat of 33-15 for favorites to outright win the superbowl. I think Carolina is the better overall team and I think they win the game outright. There is no way to to accurately predict this score because I feel there are way too many unknowns in both Carolina's ability to perform in the SB slash Manning's ability to pass the ball efficiently. He has been wildly inconsistent all year and I'm just not sure which Manning shows up. I predict the game to be pretty tight given both defenses are very good. I think there's a small/small-medium chance of a Carolina blow-out, although I think Denver D keeps this close. I think Denver has the edge on defense, but Carolina also has a very good defense. I feel like Denver will struggle to put up points, especially early on. I think getting -190 ML for a spread of 6 points is insane if you like Carolina to win the game. You just don't see that very often in the regular season.
Under 23 first half - I love this play as a general big game trend. Based on my experiences, teams in most sports tend to start off very slow to feel each other out early and make the least mistakes. Both head coaches know that the team that makes the least mistakes usually wins a football game. Carolina has been very aggressive in the first half, that is true. But I feel it can be very costly against the best defense in the NFL. I know that Rivera knows this and has probably told his team time and time again to not turn the ball over/throw big picks. I predict Carolina will grind Denver out in the first half via running game. The same goes for Manning who knows he is up against a good Carolina secondary and is prone to throw picks. I think he is smart enough to favor running the ball (he has said this in interviews). I think having two stellar defenses is just one more reason to go under 23 first half. This is my favorite play and I will probably put another unit on it.
Most first downs - Carolina - If all of the above comes true, I think picking Carolina to have the most first downs makes a lot of sense given the strength of their running game/running QB. Teams that win the game will have the most first downs the majority of the time. Small play on this prop.
*Side note - I am very tempted to take Denver +6, but I will hold off to see if it hits 7 on Bovada. If it does hit 7, I will most likely make a play at Denver +7. I think there isn't much risk in waiting because the world is on Carolina, and the public will be placing a lot of bets close to game time, they usually play the favorite.
Best of luck to both sides - it's been a fun season. I am going to try to bet less games next season as it has cost me quite a few bets this year. I should have posted a much better record if it weren't for playing thursday/mnf just for the sake of betting the game. Rookie mistake, lesson learned. Hope everyone has a great superbowl!
Under 23 first half (-130) 1 unit
Most first downs - Carolina (-150) 1 unit
CAR ML - I think my favorite play was taking CAR -3.5 on line open and possibly buying down, but I fell asleep at the wheel and saw only 5's and up. Before we get into a small game breakdown, right off the bat we have a nice stat of 33-15 for favorites to outright win the superbowl. I think Carolina is the better overall team and I think they win the game outright. There is no way to to accurately predict this score because I feel there are way too many unknowns in both Carolina's ability to perform in the SB slash Manning's ability to pass the ball efficiently. He has been wildly inconsistent all year and I'm just not sure which Manning shows up. I predict the game to be pretty tight given both defenses are very good. I think there's a small/small-medium chance of a Carolina blow-out, although I think Denver D keeps this close. I think Denver has the edge on defense, but Carolina also has a very good defense. I feel like Denver will struggle to put up points, especially early on. I think getting -190 ML for a spread of 6 points is insane if you like Carolina to win the game. You just don't see that very often in the regular season.
Under 23 first half - I love this play as a general big game trend. Based on my experiences, teams in most sports tend to start off very slow to feel each other out early and make the least mistakes. Both head coaches know that the team that makes the least mistakes usually wins a football game. Carolina has been very aggressive in the first half, that is true. But I feel it can be very costly against the best defense in the NFL. I know that Rivera knows this and has probably told his team time and time again to not turn the ball over/throw big picks. I predict Carolina will grind Denver out in the first half via running game. The same goes for Manning who knows he is up against a good Carolina secondary and is prone to throw picks. I think he is smart enough to favor running the ball (he has said this in interviews). I think having two stellar defenses is just one more reason to go under 23 first half. This is my favorite play and I will probably put another unit on it.
Most first downs - Carolina - If all of the above comes true, I think picking Carolina to have the most first downs makes a lot of sense given the strength of their running game/running QB. Teams that win the game will have the most first downs the majority of the time. Small play on this prop.
*Side note - I am very tempted to take Denver +6, but I will hold off to see if it hits 7 on Bovada. If it does hit 7, I will most likely make a play at Denver +7. I think there isn't much risk in waiting because the world is on Carolina, and the public will be placing a lot of bets close to game time, they usually play the favorite.
Best of luck to both sides - it's been a fun season. I am going to try to bet less games next season as it has cost me quite a few bets this year. I should have posted a much better record if it weren't for playing thursday/mnf just for the sake of betting the game. Rookie mistake, lesson learned. Hope everyone has a great superbowl!
