BIG's Sunday Plays

[bradyisgod]

Skins 1.5
Bucs 1.5
Eagles ML -230 (1.5 units)

Slight lean to the Vikings but the Raiders are pretty good and at home. Not betting as many games but I might have another play tonight. Slowing down with sports and focusing on poker as the season nears playoff time and games get incredibly hard to cap. All plays are a unit. BOL!

 

[JJphilly]

Likem all. Yes. Bol

 

[BovadaKing]

game I'm most confident in this week is the under in the chiefs broncos. Chiefs defense is really coming into form, and you know the broncos D will bounce back from that shredding last week against luck. Take that one to the bank bud. Good luck. On other side of Dallas game. Think Dallas runs the ball all day on that bucs weak front 7.

OL

 

[United]

Good luck today BIG

 

[MileenaWins]

I was leaning Minny myself but Oakland on the upswing at home is a scary thought.

 

[bradyisgod]

game I'm most confident in this week is the under in the chiefs broncos. Chiefs defense is really coming into form, and you know the broncos D will bounce back from that shredding last week against luck. Take that one to the bank bud. Good luck. On other side of Dallas game. Think Dallas runs the ball all day on that bucs weak front 7.

OL

I also like the under there. I'm not much of an over/under guy, just bet the sides. I watched Dallas play last week and from what I can see, I'm not looking to bet them until Romo comes back. Then again, Bucs aren't a slam dunk either when you have to root for Wineston, HA. The play is for a unit but I can see either side winning. I like taking home field if at all possible.

Had 3 PM's about where I play poker. I am in the states so I've been playing 2/4 on Bovada daily for the past few years, although most other professionals I know have since moved out of the states to play mid stakes on Stars as you can play more tables (Bovada max is 4) with a higher hourly and higher stakes games running more frequently. I've been playing for a living since I was 16, I'm 28 now. I've never worked another job in my life except kroger which I quit after two weeks after I found online poker. Betting sports is something of a hobby for me compared to poker which is full time. Really just wanted to see if I can beat sports, so far so good but variance is probably extremely high so it's tough to really know how much I'm winning long term. Who knows.

BOL this weekend guys!

 

[bradyisgod]

Good luck today BIG

Good luck buddy! I will probably be dropping in your thread later to see who you played.

 

[bradyisgod]

I was leaning Minny myself but Oakland on the upswing at home is a scary thought.

Yeah, I passed the game. If I had a gun to my head I guess I take Minny. I can see either team showing up so it's a no play for me. If this was in Minny it would be a bet. Having home field and momentum is huge for this young raiders team in a game where any edge is going to make a big difference.

 

[bradyisgod]

Adding:
Denver ML -210 (+1 unit)
Seattle ML -210 (+1 unit)

I'm not getting greedy on either game here. 3 is a key number and the chance of a push is roughly 10%. I think the chance is relatively high to fall between 1-3 compared to other games on both of these because you have two playoff caliber teams with SEA/ARI and two teams that play close KC/DEN. If I were to take the spread on either game it would probably be Seattle. On the Denver game, 4.5 is a very tricky number to play in the NFL (as is 4-5). I think the line is just right but I do see Denver winning this game coming off of a loss last week. You have to remember that KC had them beat last meeting this year before Manning made that final drive (and some key officiating calls for the Broncos).

I expect the crowd in Seattle to give their already stellar defense that much more of a boost. Seattle is a tough stadium to play in as it is. When games are supposed to be close, money line makes a lot of sense as it's easy to get burnt by the spread as well as having home field advantage. I would guess they win outright but I'm just not sure by how much.

 

[Eccocide]

Gl tonight Brady but what book do you use that SEA is -210? Its -140 at my books. Denver -180 as well.

 

[bradyisgod]

Gl tonight Brady but what book do you use that SEA is -210? Its -140 at my books. Denver -180 as well.

GL tonight buddy!

You're right, I typed that up quick to get my plays out. The price is actually better than what I put for the SEA game. I got -210 on DEN @ Bovada and I'm still shopping for a good line for SEA. But for whoever is following my plays just find the best book/price and run with it. I think we take both of these games, I don't want to say easily because I think they will run close but I feel very good about the sides on these games. Where did you find the -140 on SEA? Or is it from a local bookie? Thanks. I'll re-post the best line I find for the SEA game closer to game time.

 

[Eccocide]

GL tonight buddy!

You're right, I typed that up quick to get my plays out. The price is actually better than what I put for the SEA game. I got -210 on DEN @ Bovada and I'm still shopping for a good line for SEA. But for whoever is following my plays just find the best book/price and run with it. I think we take both of these games, I don't want to say easily because I think they will run close but I feel very good about the sides on these games. Where did you find the -140 on SEA? Or is it from a local bookie? Thanks. I'll re-post the best line I find for the SEA game closer to game time.

Oh I see. Makes more sense now lol. Im on Pinny and 5dimes. Both have -140.

 

[bradyisgod]

Oh I see. Makes more sense now lol. Im on Pinny and 5dimes. Both have -140.

Yeah, I'm going with 5dimes here @ -140. I usually check all my books but I was out on my phone with the bovada app up and being lazy. I'll put another unit for both on 5dimes since the line is so much better, thanks. Denver and Seattle are going to win both of these games based on the models I have.

 

[thesandman1]

Do you ever think about parleying the two Money Line plays just to get away from the juice. I just played them that way at +153 at bookmaker.

 

[bradyisgod]

Adding:

NE -7 (+1 unit)

Was waiting until the last second on this one to see if I could get a better price but it looks like 7 is the best I can do. Gonna tail Mr.Stewie's bet here. Pats have been my lean all week since their numbers covering ATS is ridiculous. BOL!

 

[bradyisgod]

Do you ever think about parleying the two Money Line plays just to get away from the juice. I just played them that way at +153 at bookmaker.

I really try my best to stay away from parlays and just bet the side. Having both teams win to cash a bet seems like you better be really sure of who you're playing. I wouldn't dream of playing a 3 team parlay because it's just too big of a stretch to hit them all.

Although, to get off the juice of the two money line bets for betting the parlay does seem nice. I am sure of the games but not so sure that I would bet both teams to cash one bet. Especially with how good ARI is this year and how underwhelming Seattle has been playing (especially with Lynch hurt/questionable). For those reasons I think I like betting both individually for money line. That's a really good price and I still like the parlay, I think I just like betting them individually a little better unless I'm extremely sure of the outcome. I am trying my best to not get greedy off the price or over-estimate my ability to cap playoff type games so that's just one more reason I like going ML.

 

[bradyisgod]

We should have went 3-0 on main plays today but having Bradford get injured and having Sanchez come in spelled disaster for Eagles guys. Money line was the right play, wrong outcome. I think without Sanchez coming in throwing picks instead of TD's in the in-zone, we get this done with Bradford most of the time. Tough loss. Fade Sanchez!

2-1 today.

 

[bradyisgod]

Ended the day 2-3. No NE cover and Peyton Manning looked like a different QB today. Never expected that kind of performance. I still have a lot of confidence in tonight's bet on Seattle. They really do need this game and Pete Carrol has a great record on prime time games. Must win for SEA tonight. I'll go with the home field advantage.

Looks like the best I can hope for is to go even for the week and come back strong on MNF. I've definitely cooled off and I'm losing a lot of really close games by 1 point or so to cover the spread, injuries, and just good players having bad games. That's football.

Adding:
Seattle ML (+1 unit) - So 2 units total.

Definitely not a game I want to try to get back to even on, just getting the feeling if I'm going ML I should add a unit to the play. BOL to both sides!

 

[rekt]

Cinni tonight?

 

[bradyisgod]

Cinni tonight?

I'm really not sure. I don't think this is a slam dunk bet on Texans because they had a bye week to prepare and you get 11 points. I'm really going to research this game. Sharps are on Texans from what I've heard. This is the worst Texans team I've ever seen and I've been following them closer than most here since they first arrived in Houston. The Falcons torched us at home 40-0 before they put their backups in earlier this season and cinci > falcons. Houston has a ton of issues on every single front. No quarterback and no running game. Terrible against the pass which is what Dalton likes to do. On top of all this we don't even have home field. The Texans team when we beat the Dalton in 2011 was completely different than the Texans team we have right now. I'll have a play up before the game tonight.

On a side note I might just pass this game, take the over and call it a day. I've been losing more games than I should and it's because I keep betting games I should pass on (and this might be one of them). Should have passed on Seattle last night. BOL!