Hey thanks for all the positive comments guys. Jayjay and rock. The past few weeks I've been getting killed. That's football, no way around it!
3-1 today and back to 60% overall. I expected to end the season 55-60% so I'm right on track, on the high side but I'll take it! PITT is my best bet today, game's almost on. I'll have another play tonight Pats vs. Broncos. BOL guys!
Nice 3-1 day! I agm on the Hawks TT UNDER 25 so while we don't have the same bet exactly, we both want to see the Hawks pffense struggle. I am still conflicted on a NE side. I love the UNDER which I got at 44. But I originally liked DEN +3 when I heard about Amendola. News of snow got my feet cold so I bought NE at -2. Still mulling ...
Hey! Thanks man. Been having a few rough weeks as of late. Record for me was lower than what I had posted, thanks to Hot Rocks. Haven't been logging in as much to update things, but everything now is up to date. I'm still looking at the NE game. Having Amendola out is tough. It makes for a difficult game to cap, not sure which side I will be on as of yet. BOL!
Great day Brady......now we need your expertise in the most f**led up spread of the day, your Patriots -2.5?
Adding: DEN +3
Been looking for a spot to bet against the Patriots, this is it. Just 1 unit though, you don't make money betting against the Patriots to not cover the spread. Not much need for a write-up as it's obvious that the Patriots just have too many injuries at this point and that's one of the main reasons for betting them. Throwing to Gronk 50 times in a game is predictable - they will have him covered. Pats are an average running team, their scheme is built for the pass. I expect them to run the ball too much. Osweiler played well last game and I have him as a slight upgrade to Manning based on how he played. Albeit slight and too early to tell how he will perform long term, so take that with a grain of salt.
They say you don't get rich betting against the patriots but if there was a spot this year, this looks like one. Mile high is a really tough stadium to play in so I think the smart move is to fade the public, take the points and home field and cross your fingers that Osweiler holds true to form. I see reasons for both sides of this game, but more attractive reasons for taking Denver here. BOL to both sides!
61% of votes are on the patriots right now. Makes me feel pretty good about this game. I got the line -3 on bovie but it won't surprise me if sharps start betting DEN last second.
Source: http://www.wunderdog.com/public-consensus.html
I hear you. Expected it to be a close divisional game as they usually are. If pats weren't completely banged up it would have been a nice spot, instead it seemed like a spot with very small edges - tough to say which side had the edge after watching the game. Nasty conditions, a banged up pats team and a rookie qb made for too many unknowns to bet the game for more than a unit if that. I wouldn't be surprised if the EV was near 0 for picking either side on that game. I came out on the right side, but lately I'm just always on the wrong side of it. I ended up 4-2 today. It feels good but I'm grateful to end up on the right side of the pats game. Tom Brady just never stops fighting. He's the best QB in my generation, for sure. Seems like the debate is settled with him vs. Manning, not to take anything away from Manning. I was shocked that he could still lead that team with so many injuries. I never thought the game would be that tough to win. Like you, everything pointed to the Denver side tonight for me from what I studied. After watching the game play out, the guy who gives the patriots all the credit in the world (me), still didn't give them enough credit. I can't get over how well that team played on the road with so many injuries in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. Even Osweiler said he didn't win the game, his team did.
For Monday, I'm really liking the Browns. I'm going to shop for the best line and take them if possible. My models show that taking them is +EV for anything less than a TD, although I'd prefer under 5. BOL tomorrow!
I laid off that Denver play, but nice hit man......tonight its the Browns for me.
