BIG's Saturday

[bradyisgod]

Jets +3 (+2 units)

I usually don't find too many games that I feel good about on prime time when it's the only game on television because the books have forever and days to get it right. I feel pretty good about this one.

The biggest data point goes without saying, Ryan Tannehil out. Second biggest data point is that warm weather teams usually don't play well in cold weather and bad conditions. Factor in travel time and I think we see a let down from the fins. The Jets are better than they look on paper with a few really bad let down performances causing the public to under value the team in general. One being against the colts where the Jets gave up but people have to understand that Andrew Luck can have games where he's on fire and there's just nothing you can do unless you have a defense capable of it and very few NFL teams CAN deal with those type of games. This is the same Jets that kept it within 5 points against the Patriots, beat the Ravens and only lost to the fins by 4 points, on the road with Tannehill IN. I'll take home field, cold weather and the points. There's a chance that the Jets just suck it up, I'm not ruling that out, it happens. Disregarding the outcome of the game, I think everything points to the Jets here.

Best of luck RX'ers!

 

[Recon792]

BOL with the Jets tonight sir !!!

 

[bradyisgod]

BOL with the Jets tonight sir !!!

Good luck to you Mr.Recon!

 

[chonce]

Also on the Jets. Considered FH + 1, but think I will break my own rule and buy a point, -3(-125).

That is the best price I can find at the moment.

 

[bradyisgod]

Also on the Jets. Considered FH + 1, but think I will break my own rule and buy a point, -3(-125).

That is the best price I can find at the moment.

Sweet! I figured you would be, too. -125 isn't bad if you can find it. I hate buying at -135 or higher. Like you said, there's more EV to be had by just taking our losses when we miss and winning more when we cover. It's one of those situations where I just try to find the middle ground since we know buying points at anything -135 or higher sucks, and not taking them is probably good, so anything at -120 or -125 is probably situational. The sample sizes that people post on the amount we win/lose from buying points is ridiculously small. I'd guess we need sample sizes in the thousands (and higher) to actually figure out what's more profitable. Way too small of a sample to really have a clue. It honestly probably doesn't matter much as long as someones not just carelessly buying the hook (I know you don't like it, I probably do it too much but I'm toning that down). My database just has me winning more overall when I don't take it. Again small sample so it probably doesn't matter. Hope the Jets don't embarrass us! Cheers buddy.

 

[chonce]

Sweet! I figured you would be, too. -125 isn't bad if you can find it. I hate buying at -135 or higher. Like you said, there's more EV to be had by just taking our losses when we miss and winning more when we cover. It's one of those situations where I just try to find the middle ground since we know buying points at anything -135 or higher sucks, and not taking them is probably good, so anything at -120 or -125 is probably situational. It honestly probably doesn't matter much as long as someones not just carelessly buying the hook (I know you don't like it). Hope the Jets don't embarrass us! Cheers buddy.

Yeah, statistically buying points is usually not wise, of on principle taking 2.5 points seem worthless to me. In that case I would either hit ML or buy to a 3 (and yes -125 is not the worst). Getting 2.5 doesn't feel much better than getting half a point, so if I don't buy a point i would find another method (ML, FH, or Team Total).

But I can stomach -125!

Good luck!
Yeah,

 

[zombiestoner]

On the Jets ML at +115. IMO one of the better value bets this week. Agree with limited value at +2.5 and not attractive to buy the 0.5pt.

The Fish struggled against Cards with Moore in the game and if Jets were serious about improving draft position they would have not fought hard and rallied last week.

I also like the under [but close] at 38.5, with a lot of rushing and field goal attempts don't see Petty and Moore lighting it up despite reasonable passing conditions. Main risk to low score is pick 6 returns which are likely. Probably pass I think the Vegas brains trust are close to true value.

BOL

 

[OverThinker]

Yeah, statistically buying points is usually not wise, of on principle taking 2.5 points seem worthless to me. In that case I would either hit ML or buy to a 3 (and yes -125 is not the worst). Getting 2.5 doesn't feel much better than getting half a point, so if I don't buy a point i would find another method (ML, FH, or Team Total).

But I can stomach -125!

Good luck!
Yeah,

i understand it feels that way but the last few years I been torched more times than I can count with the lay the points w fav/play the ml on dog with spreads less than 3 to the point I've changed my philosophy a great deal and this season have started taking points when I like the dog of less than 3.. honestly my favorite thing to do when I like the dog under a fg is a ml/teaser combo as I love teasing those short dogs over a td when I like them to win as they rarely get beat by more than a td..

far as buying, I mostly subscribe to the theory I'm better off not paying the extra juice but situationally I don't have a problem buying half to 3 or 7. I would never buy to avoid a push but to get on a key number I certainly think there worse things..

 

[OverThinker]

On the Jets ML at +115. IMO one of the better value bets this week. Agree with limited value at +2.5 and not attractive to buy the 0.5pt.

The Fish struggled against Cards with Moore in the game and if Jets were serious about improving draft position they would have not fought hard and rallied last week.

I also like the under [but close] at 38.5, with a lot of rushing and field goal attempts don't see Petty and Moore lighting it up despite reasonable passing conditions. Main risk to low score is pick 6 returns which are likely. Probably pass I think the Vegas brains trust are close to true value.

BOL

man I just don't feel like +115 is accurately displaying how often jets win this game. I see no value what's so ever in that play. Luckily for ya'll I'm wrong all the time, lol: no play for me so hope I'm wrong, GL

 

[bradyisgod]

man I just don't feel like +115 is accurately displaying how often jets win this game. I see no value what's so ever in that play. Luckily for ya'll I'm wrong all the time, lol: no play for me so hope I'm wrong, GL

Good call. It probably should have been a pass for me. Me, along with a lot of decent cappers, had the Jets as higher value than they really were. Big mistake. They had played the Pats tough, beat the Ravens, they had the talent on the field but they just couldn't make anything happen. They have a lot of work to do and my opinion on the Jets has really changed after last night.

Hopefully a better Sunday. Cheers

 

[d3nv3r]

I had Miami for 1H and game but Petty looked quite good in the first quarter, he played much better then I expected. Keep an eye one him, he could be a starter next year with some work under his belt.