HOU ML (-200) +1.5 units
DET +8 (-110) + 1 unit
Saw the Houston line at -3.5 today and had a feeling I should just buy the half point and take 3 in fear of this hitting 4. It's been trending up opening at -1.5 when I should have just pulled the trigger. I need to act on my gut instinct because I'm right about most of the line moves in the NFL. I don't trust Houston's offense enough to lay 4 points but I do they think they win outright at home. 4 is a tricky number along with 5, 6, especially for teams with a catastrophe offense that is the Houston Texans. They play really well at home, though. My guess is that we score less points with Osweiler in than a healthy Savage from what I've seen out of the limited Savage games.
I don't have a strong opinion on the SEA DET game. I think Seattle is over-rated by a lot of cappers. With a healthy team this line makes a lot more sense. I think the injuries for SEA is the biggest data point for me. Number two data point is that they just don't light the world on fire with their offense consistently and they have to cover over a touchdown in a playoff scenario. I see a lot of close low scoring games from them and really mediocre teams have played them hard or beat them this year. This is just a small play for me. Public loves SEA at home. I like going with the ugly team here and buying on bad news DET is another small data point that I like. Lions have played SEA within 4 points the past two match-ups (the only recent ones).
DET +8 (-110) + 1 unit
Saw the Houston line at -3.5 today and had a feeling I should just buy the half point and take 3 in fear of this hitting 4. It's been trending up opening at -1.5 when I should have just pulled the trigger. I need to act on my gut instinct because I'm right about most of the line moves in the NFL. I don't trust Houston's offense enough to lay 4 points but I do they think they win outright at home. 4 is a tricky number along with 5, 6, especially for teams with a catastrophe offense that is the Houston Texans. They play really well at home, though. My guess is that we score less points with Osweiler in than a healthy Savage from what I've seen out of the limited Savage games.
I don't have a strong opinion on the SEA DET game. I think Seattle is over-rated by a lot of cappers. With a healthy team this line makes a lot more sense. I think the injuries for SEA is the biggest data point for me. Number two data point is that they just don't light the world on fire with their offense consistently and they have to cover over a touchdown in a playoff scenario. I see a lot of close low scoring games from them and really mediocre teams have played them hard or beat them this year. This is just a small play for me. Public loves SEA at home. I like going with the ugly team here and buying on bad news DET is another small data point that I like. Lions have played SEA within 4 points the past two match-ups (the only recent ones).
