Write up for MNF:
- Vikings 5-1 ATS, Bears 1-6 ATS. Vikings third ATS but tied for first depending on how you look at it. They have played 2 games less than the PATs who are in first at 7-1 ATS and one game less than Dallas at 6-1. The bears are last in the league at 1-6 ATS. Makes me really weary to back the Bears in almost any situation.
- I'd rather have Hoyer in than Cutler. As a Texans fan, I never in a million years dreamed I would say I wanted Hoyer in the game over just about any other quarterback but you have to hand it to him, he threw for an average of 300 yards for 4 games or so and was able to get the team rallied behind him. Cutler is a downgrade in my eyes.
- Cutler against arguably the best secondary in the league. Vikings have a safety out but they should still be able to entice an already pick prone Cutler to continue his ways.
- Vikings DVOA % +20.2%, Bears -6.6%. A little about DVOA. It takes into account basically everything that happens throughout the game from play to play and rates each play based on it's importance. This stat is becoming really, really meaningful because it takes into account the situation. 3-5 points in DVOA differential is a huge deal and here you have a team that is +20% against a team that is negative in DVOA at -6.6%. I can't stress enough how massive of a difference that is.
- Vikings run game has already been abysmal, so don't feel bad about the run game, it's already really bad. Mckinnon is 44th in the league in rushing behind some of the back-ups. Not even top 30. I think it's time to give someone else a shot, it's tough to get much worse when people are writing articles calling your run game the worst in 50 years.
- Vikings playing for their season, bears are not. The bears aren't going anywhere with 6 losses so I expect an already beaten down bears team to just give up as soon as things don't go their way causing a bigger lead for the Vikings (covering the number easier).
- When the Vikings win, they win by an average of 11.2 points. This should be more comforting in covering the spread as if 6-1 ATS didn't already convince us enough.
- Turnover differential: Vikings +1.8 (1st), Bears -0.3 (20th). They say turnovers win games so this is just one big or small factor the Vikings have going for them depending on how much they get to Cutler.
- YPP against: Vikings 4.4 (1st), Bears 5.4 (10th)
- YPP: Vikings 4.7 (31st), Bears 5.8 (10th) - I have to throw this one in there since at first glance it looks like a really big deal. You have to remember that Hoyer has come in and thrown for 300+ yards for 4 games straight before his injury. Nobody expected that and since he is hurt I expect Cutler to perform worse than Hoyer so I think this stat is largely inflated due to those 4 games from Hoyer which seemed like an anomaly. Anyone who watched him on the Texans knows what I'm talking about.
These are just some of the many reasons I like the Vikings tonight to cover 4.
- Vikings 5-1 ATS, Bears 1-6 ATS. Vikings third ATS but tied for first depending on how you look at it. They have played 2 games less than the PATs who are in first at 7-1 ATS and one game less than Dallas at 6-1. The bears are last in the league at 1-6 ATS. Makes me really weary to back the Bears in almost any situation.
- I'd rather have Hoyer in than Cutler. As a Texans fan, I never in a million years dreamed I would say I wanted Hoyer in the game over just about any other quarterback but you have to hand it to him, he threw for an average of 300 yards for 4 games or so and was able to get the team rallied behind him. Cutler is a downgrade in my eyes.
- Cutler against arguably the best secondary in the league. Vikings have a safety out but they should still be able to entice an already pick prone Cutler to continue his ways.
- Vikings DVOA % +20.2%, Bears -6.6%. A little about DVOA. It takes into account basically everything that happens throughout the game from play to play and rates each play based on it's importance. This stat is becoming really, really meaningful because it takes into account the situation. 3-5 points in DVOA differential is a huge deal and here you have a team that is +20% against a team that is negative in DVOA at -6.6%. I can't stress enough how massive of a difference that is.
- Vikings run game has already been abysmal, so don't feel bad about the run game, it's already really bad. Mckinnon is 44th in the league in rushing behind some of the back-ups. Not even top 30. I think it's time to give someone else a shot, it's tough to get much worse when people are writing articles calling your run game the worst in 50 years.
- Vikings playing for their season, bears are not. The bears aren't going anywhere with 6 losses so I expect an already beaten down bears team to just give up as soon as things don't go their way causing a bigger lead for the Vikings (covering the number easier).
- When the Vikings win, they win by an average of 11.2 points. This should be more comforting in covering the spread as if 6-1 ATS didn't already convince us enough.
- Turnover differential: Vikings +1.8 (1st), Bears -0.3 (20th). They say turnovers win games so this is just one big or small factor the Vikings have going for them depending on how much they get to Cutler.
- YPP against: Vikings 4.4 (1st), Bears 5.4 (10th)
- YPP: Vikings 4.7 (31st), Bears 5.8 (10th) - I have to throw this one in there since at first glance it looks like a really big deal. You have to remember that Hoyer has come in and thrown for 300+ yards for 4 games straight before his injury. Nobody expected that and since he is hurt I expect Cutler to perform worse than Hoyer so I think this stat is largely inflated due to those 4 games from Hoyer which seemed like an anomaly. Anyone who watched him on the Texans knows what I'm talking about.
These are just some of the many reasons I like the Vikings tonight to cover 4.
Those were my thoughts as well. I've watched the Bears play a lot this year. When they played the Texans we handed it to them pretty easily. Then the Texans face the vikings and got obliterated. I've bet Chicago another time this year and I didn't cover. I remember thinking to myself after the game why in the world I would take Chicago as the underdog when I knew that they had all sorts of problems including the head coaching and inconsistent quarterback play. Lesson learned.
It's my opinion that the line is largely deflated for the Vikings because of their loss last week against the Eagles 10-21. I think it's an overreaction from the books and the public's perception of the Vikings. The Eagles are really, really good.
I won't be on them again tonight.
It's my opinion that the line is largely deflated for the Vikings because of their loss last week against the Eagles 10-21. I think it's an overreaction from the books and the public's perception of the Vikings. The Eagles are really, really good.
I won't be on them again tonight.
You would rather have brian hoyer instead of jay cutler? Wow. You know brian hoyer did not even win a game right?
All those stats were all after they went 3 and out on their first 5 possessions of the game and was down 14-0 before you could blink. Then he started to get stats playing catch up. Hoyer is a game manager at best. He can't win games though
All those stats were all after they went 3 and out on their first 5 possessions of the game and was down 14-0 before you could blink. Then he started to get stats playing catch up. Hoyer is a game manager at best. He can't win games though
For me, the Vikings have seen Cutler a ton. Although, there is still a small part of me that thinks Cutty can still play, unfortunately I don't think its for CHI. There was a game earlier this season that I remember commenting on (cant remember which one) but I think this is better for MIN since they are coming off a loss. Allows them to refocus, become reengaged on the goals. A win here gives them a 2.5-3 game lead on GB given they won H2H which is a huge lead. half way through. I agree, rushing will be brutal, MIN def is one of the tops in the league, bears are falling apart in different ways every week. Langford is Quest, Royal and Long most likely wont play. had a good weekend so I wont play much on tonight, but leaning strong towards MIN -5, and teasing MIN/Under 46 for 2U. Hard to believe I will back Bradford but pretty simple gameplan, don't turn it over, and I think min wins 23-6 or something along those lines. I just don't know how CHI scores touchdowns.
Lets look at it this way. If game were played in Minny you should add roughly 6 points to the line for home field swap. Line says Minny -12 or -10 at home??? That seems way too high. Bears were just 7.5 point dogs at Green Bay last week. For comparison Green Bay was a 3 point favorite AT MINNY. If anything 4 is about right and 6 was too many, which is why 6 was gone right after the number was posted.
