BIGs MNF

[bradyisgod]

Cinci -11

Sticking with my gut, going against the touts that my knowledge of the Texans is better than theirs. I follow Texans really closely and we have big problems vs teams who pass the ball well. Falcons torched us 40-0 before we put backups in and that game stands out in my mind because I feel Cinci > Falcons. The Falcons are an average team and overrated in my eyes.

Houston has no running game, no passing game and the best thing we have going for us is our receiver Hopkins this year. JJ Watt is not having a career year and it seems that teams are finally figuring out to just double team him and it makes him way less of a factor. Our defense is underperforming this year. On top of all that we are playing away and do not have home field.

For these reasons the play is Cinci, but it's small at just a unit. Wouldn't go crazy on the game 11 is a lot to cover. I also like the over here but I don't play over under. BOL to both sides.

 

[rekt]

BOL brady!

 

[PsychedelicPicks]

BOL Brady

 

[texansfan]

I'm leaning that way but still undecided. I stated in another thread how bad the Texans secondary is. They don't stop the run, and they can't tackle. They don't run the ball, at least not so far with much success.

As far as Watt, except for his TD's and balls deflected, his numbers are better than all of last year at this point. It's hard to play defense with just one person.

My only concern is the back door. Teams get a lead and then play prevent in the 4th. Believe it or not, Cin is 6th in offense while Hou is 9. Cin is 12th in defense while Hou is 14th. Cin is 8-0, but the teams they've played are 2-6.

11 points is a lot to give up though.

 

[NegroGrande]

Best of luck, amigo - I'm about to take a look at this game now.

 

[awnp]

I'm leaning that way but still undecided. I stated in another thread how bad the Texans secondary is. They don't stop the run, and they can't tackle. They don't run the ball, at least not so far with much success.

As far as Watt, except for his TD's and balls deflected, his numbers are better than all of last year at this point. It's hard to play defense with just one person.

My only concern is the back door. Teams get a lead and then play prevent in the 4th. Believe it or not, Cin is 6th in offense while Hou is 9. Cin is 12th in defense while Hou is 14th. Cin is 8-0, but the teams they've played are 2-6.

11 points is a lot to give up though.

That's what worries me a little. Think the Dolphins were in a similar situation. Bringing the thunder early, backups come in and Texans make it interesting. Fins still held the cover but it demonstrates what you're saying.

Appreciate the insight BIG. Think ultimately the Bengals are the play and will tail.

 

[CptDegenerate]

I think its convenient that it got leaked that Bill O'Brien is showing strong interest in the Maryland job today. Something is amiss in Houston

 

[texansfan]

One more thing is turnovers, who is going to get them?

 

[captn_jay]

Good Luck my friend. I have small action the other way. Don't like this game but I am a degenerate. Good luck with your action

 

[texansfan]

I think its convenient that it got leaked that Bill O'Brien is showing strong interest in the Maryland job today. Something is amiss in Houston

I thought about that earlier today. Hou just really a train wreck right now. Until they fire Rick Smith and Crennel they won't be good.

 

[texansfan]

It's funny, I took Cin -10 against Cle a few weeks ago because I felt strongly Cin would easily cover. Why am I hesitating on taking Cin -11 tonight? It's not like Hou has done anything to even consider taking them.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Yes sir......nothing but money!!!

 

[bradyisgod]

I actually agree with everyone that's posted so far. I can see reasons to play Texans, 11 points is a lot to cover in the NFL. This game is a no bet or a small bet either way. I don't see a lot of value in hammering either side. If you pick Texans I get it, if you go Cinci, I get that too. Houston is an absolute mess and I'm looking to fade them which is probably one reason for my play. In all honesty, it's anyone's guess as to if HOU shows up tonight, next week or later on in the season. Nobody really knows and everyone is just taking a guess at it since the spread is so high. There is no overwhelming evidence telling me HOU is going to show up today over say next week. If I had to take a guess on when they show up it would have been when Foster came back a few weeks ago and that didn't happen. Now that he's gone, our offense is one dimensional if you can even call it that - because our QB's/passing game isn't great either. Hopkins carrying us on whatever points we do score.

Both plays make sense - don't go huge. Go off what you've seen which is what I'm doing now. Been looking to bet against Texans and I'll pick Cinci to light them up at home. By the way - the backdoor cover does worry me and scare me. Another reason I'm going small on this game. You guess is as good as mine is but I'll stay square here vs. a struggling Texans squad. BOL cinci and texans backers.

 

[texansfan]

I'm only picking a side because of my contest. I can just see Cin scoring quickly and easily to go up big early, but then again I can see Hou coming back in the 4th to cover. I've got to use 11 either way, still undecided.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Brady, go light tonight, & unload on the real Brady next Monday......its gonna be blowout city next Monday!

 

[bradyisgod]

I'm only picking a side because of my contest. I can just see Cin scoring quickly and easily to go up big early, but then again I can see Hou coming back in the 4th to cover. I've got to use 11 either way, still undecided.

Awesome stuff. Like you, I'm not only playing this game for the sole reason of making money. I've had a great season so I figure that I should start capping tougher games to test myself, as well as games like this with a high point spread. My general rule is when it's 10 or more I lay off unless I'm taking the underdog. If I were only playing to make money and not improve as a capper, I would pass this game. Just a word for anyone out there who is blindly tailing. This is probably the main reason I've been dropping off on most of my bets lately. I've been capping games like SEA/ARI, GB/CAR when I normally just pass games with two good teams where the oddsmakers nail the spread dead on. Not making excuses for my losses as of late, I could have capped the games better. Just stating that I'm betting a lot of games that I normally don't and I think in the long run it will help me improve as a capper even if it's dropping my overall profit for now or wins/losses ratio.

BOL Texansfan!

 

[bradyisgod]

Brady, go light tonight, & unload on the real Brady next Monday......its gonna be blowout city next Monday!

For sure, I'm only in this game for a half a unit! I've been eyeing the pats for next game and I like it. Public will be devaluing Pats now that NYG played them close and the Edelman injury. Blunt is still really good!

 

[Incubus]

It's funny, I took Cin -10 against Cle a few weeks ago because I felt strongly Cin would easily cover. Why am I hesitating on taking Cin -11 tonight? It's not like Hou has done anything to even consider taking them.

Perhaps it's because there's some serious REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT? !/Public money is on Cincy. Looks like sharps pounding Houston.

 

[bradyisgod]

Perhaps it's because there's some serious REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT? !/Public money is on Cincy. Looks like sharps pounding Houston.

Good point Incubus. Reverse line movement is always something to consider, I agree with that. Sharps generally like dogs with a spread of 10 or more so this was very predictable line movement (I think I said that in my original post this afternoon). I know a lot of sharps who do not even consider any other factor and just bet the dog at 10+ and they seem to do quite well. 10+ is a nightmare to cap. This is just a test for me, I haven't been nailing playoff caliber games, but I've been doing quite well calling the higher spread games which is the exact opposite of how I thought I would perform. Probably will not be betting the playoffs this year because of that.

Maybe my luck can turn around tonight. For me it's been a mix of bad capping/unlucky/random injuries. If I lose this game maybe I'll learn something, take a note and move on to Thursday. BOL dude!

 

[texansfan]

Screw it, Hou +11. Game might be out of reach by HT, but maybe Hou can finally show up in a game.