In Election 2000, the difference in the votes cast for George W. Bush and Al Gore was less than one percent in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, New Mexico, Oregon and Wisconsin -- all of which are considered battleground or “swing” states for the 2004 election.
Most experts agree that in the 2004 election Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Missouri join the list. Together these ten states account for 117 of the electoral-college votes -- with 270 votes needed to win the presidency.
If the election turns out to be as tight as it appears today, two states may prove to be the most critical: Ohio and Florida.
In both states Bush is under fire. If he loses either Florida or Ohio in a close race, he will likely lose the election.
Here's a round up of the key swing states:
OREGON (7 electoral votes): Leaning to Kerry.
Democrats have been victorious in the last three presidential elections in Oregon, but Republicans won nine of the 10 elections from 1948 to 1984 -- with the exception of the 1964 victory for Lyndon Johnson.
Oregon voters have a liberal social record that includes support for same-sex marriage, medicinal marijuana and physician-assisted suicide.
In 2000, former Vice President Al Gore beat Bush by less than 7,000 votes in the state. Rasmussen Reports indicate Kerry ahead of Bush, 50 percent to 42 percent. The Rasmussen poll matches the nonpartisan American Research Group of Manchester, N.H., which also shows Kerry with 50 percent to 42 percent for Bush.
NEW MEXICO (5 electoral votes): Leans to Kerry.
New Mexico has supported every winning president since 1912 except once in 1976. Gore won the state by just 366 votes in 2000 – a narrower margin than was the case in the Bush Florida victory.
With lots of Hispanic voters at stake, Bush is pushing his “guest worker” immigration initiative, and Kerry is touting his alternative of “earned citizenship.”
John Kerry leads George W. Bush among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. According to the American Research Group, a total of 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42 percent say they would vote for Bush. A total of 3 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6 percent of likely voters are undecided.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 electoral votes): Leans to Kerry.
Republicans outnumber Democrats 36.7 percent to 25.6 percent in the Granite State. The state has predictably voted for the Republican candidate in six of the past eight presidential elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole by an almost 10-point margin.
In 2000 Bush edged by Gore by over 7000 votes. Kerry has been appealing to the strong tech sector with a promise to add 1.2 million jobs.
Kerry’s plan would stimulate economic growth by cutting taxes on small businesses and research. John Kerry leads George W. Bush among likely voters in New Hampshire, according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the Presidential election were being held today and 42 percent say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2 percent of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 7 percent of likely voters are undecided.
OHIO (20 electoral votes): Leans to Bush.
No Republican presidential candidate from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush has won a presidential election without carrying Ohio.
Ohioans are most concerned about the loss of manufacturing jobs and high unemployment -- with 265,000 jobs have been lost in the state since 2000.
The latest Rasmussen survey shows President Bush with 46 percent of the vote and Senator Kerry with 42 percent (5 percent to other; 9 percent undecided). That four point edge matches Bush's margin of victory in the state four years ago. In Election 2000, it was Bush 50 percent, Gore 46 percent.
WEST VIRGINIA (5 electoral votes): Leans to Bush.
Until the 2000 presidential election when the voters rejected Al Gore, West Virginia had voted Republican in only three of the last 18 presidential elections: 1956, 1972, and 1984 -- all elections that featured Republican incumbents.
West Virginians worry about the future of the coal industry, and the state has the nation’s fifth-highest percentage of veterans. In West Virginia, Rasmussen shows President Bush leads John Kerry by five percentage points, 46 percent to 41 percent. Four years ago, Bush won the state by six points over Al Gore, 52 percent to 46 percent.
PENNSYLVANIA (21 electoral votes): Leans to Kerry.
In the past three presidential elections, Democrats won this state, and registered Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans by almost half a million.
However, Republican presidential candidates carried Pennsylvania three times in the 1980s.
Although Bush’s decision to remove tariffs on steel imports proved unpopular in steel-producing regions of the state, the state’s many older voters support the administration’s prescription-drug legislation.
This is also home turf for Teresa Heinz Kerry, widow of the former Pennsylvania senator John Heinz and now Kerry’s wife. In Pennsylvania, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Bush with 45 percent of the vote and Kerry with 44 percent. Four years ago, Bush lost Pennsylvania to Al Gore by five percentage points.
FLORIDA (27 electoral votes): Dead Heat.
The extremely close vote and controversial recounts in 2000, when former Vice President Al Gore came within less than 1,000 votes of winning the state spotlight the effect that a single state can have on the election’s outcome.
In a state brimming with seniors, many analysts predicted Bush and the GOP would get a big boost from adding a prescription drug benefit to Medicare last year.
It hasn't panned out. Florida voters are evenly divided on whether the legislation was a positive step toward reining in the costs of prescription drugs for seniors.
Both candidates are addressing the significant immigrant population of Florida with Bush promoting a “guest-worker” plan while Kerry is promoting “earned citizenship” -- legalization and citizenship reform for undocumented immigrants.
The latest Rasmussen Reports Florida survey finds Kerry with 48 percent of the vote to Bush's 43 percent. By comparison, in May the candidates were tied in Florida -- with both Bush and Kerry attracting 46 percent of the vote.
MISSOURI (11 electoral votes): Leans to Bush.
In every presidential election of the 20th century except 1956, the successful presidential candidate has won this state.
Although Missouri has a significant Catholic population, 32 percent of Missouri voters identify themselves as members of the Religious Right. The state legislature’s opposition to same-sex marriage reflects the conservative voter base.
In Missouri, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Bush with 50 percent of the vote and Kerry with 46 percent. Four years ago, Bush won the state of Missouri by a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent margin.
WISCONSIN (10 electoral votes): Leans to Kerry
Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic candidate in four of the last six presidential elections -- crossing over to support Ronald Reagan in his two wins 1980 and 1984. Gore won this state narrowly in 2000. Wisconsin has suffered from 75,000 manufacturing job losses since the last presidential election. About 12 percent of Wisconsin’s voters are veterans, so the war in Iraq, defense issues and veteran benefits lead the list of issues important to voters.
Kerry holds an eight-point lead over Bush in Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found Kerry earning 50 percent of the vote to Bush's 42 percent. Interestingly, however, when Ralph Nader is mentioned as an alternative, Kerry's lead is cut in half -- 45 percent to 41 percent --with Nader taking 8 percent of the vote.
IOWA (7 electoral votes): Leans to Bush.
Iowa has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984, but David Roederer, chairman of the Bush-Cheney 2004 Iowa Leadership Team, likes to point out, “Iowa was one of seven states where the difference was less than a percentage point. We only lost by 4,100 votes last time.”
Four years ago, Al Gore narrowly carried Iowa by a 49 percent to 48 percent margin. Democrats are focusing on jobs, the economy, health care, insurance, education and opposition to free trade. Prime voter country – the farming areas outside of Des Moines where John Edwards proved popular in the caucuses.
In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports polling data shows Senator John Kerry with 48 percent of the vote and President George W. Bush with 45 percent. A month ago, Kerry had a four-point lead. The month before that Kerry was leading by eight percentage points, 49 percent to 41 percent.
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