Big Will's Picks for 11/1

[bigwillokc]

So this is my first time posting my picks anywhere, but I have done decent this year by doing my research and also reading this board. I'm not going to promise 70% or anything, but I have been posting in other's threads quite a bit and figured why not start my own. This is what I have for this weekend.

I nearly always bet the same amount on each play unless there is one or two plays I feel strongly about, so unless otherwise noted, my plays are always 1 unit.

Started off pretty shitty on my first play of USF, so hopefully that's out of the system.....

YTD 0-1-0


Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8
Louisville -13.5 (2 Units)
Minnesota -7
Washington +46.5 (Haven't played this yet because its moving in my favor. Will jump on it when I see it start to level off)
Michigan +1.5
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5 (2 Units)
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20

Oklahoma 1st Half (Will be eagerly waiting for this line to hit the board and if its 14 or less, this will be a 5 unit play)



BOL to everyone.

 

[Randizzle14]

Best of Luck (From a Fellow Occupant of Sooner Nation)

 

[Greenbacks]

This is what i think......

Now,you bet what you want,just my input like you asked

I see 3 shady lines...

Bowling Green line opened at -8.5 and is now -6 with 63% on BG....2.5 pt. drop

Air Force line was at -10.5 and is now -8 with 70% on AF....2.5 pt. drop

Kansas line was at -11.5 and is now -8.5 with 64% on KU.....3 pt. drop


IMO i would be careful with those 3 plays....I`m not telling you not to wager on those plays,just be leary...Big public plays with the line dropping are sometimes suspect

Good luck with whatever you do :toast:

 

[bigwillokc]

This is what i think......

Now,you bet what you want,just my input like you asked

I see 3 shady lines...

Bowling Green line opened at -8.5 and is now -6 with 63% on BG....2.5 pt. drop

Air Force line was at -10.5 and is now -8 with 70% on AF....2.5 pt. drop

Kansas line was at -11.5 and is now -8.5 with 64% on KU.....3 pt. drop


IMO i would be careful with those 3 plays....I`m not telling you not to wager on those plays,just be leary...Big public plays with the line dropping are sometimes suspect

Good luck with whatever you do :toast:

I know that's a bit scary especially after what happened to USF last night....

Thanks for the input and I've already put all of my plays in when I posted them, so I'm going to be nervous, but I think Kansas and Air Force will pull it off, not so sure about Bowling Green.

 

[Randizzle14]

This is what i think......

Now,you bet what you want,just my input like you asked

I see 3 shady lines...

Bowling Green line opened at -8.5 and is now -6 with 63% on BG....2.5 pt. drop

Air Force line was at -10.5 and is now -8 with 70% on AF....2.5 pt. drop

Kansas line was at -11.5 and is now -8.5 with 64% on KU.....3 pt. drop


IMO i would be careful with those 3 plays....I`m not telling you not to wager on those plays,just be leary...Big public plays with the line dropping are sometimes suspect

Good luck with whatever you do :toast:

BigWill, if you capped these games and are confident that statistically and situationally these are the correct side, then stick with it.

Question: Does money change the outcome of a game?? Simple answer is no.

What you do want to look up on such games as these are key injuries. Sometimes books will receive information that we do not regarding key players and if they will be playing.

Again, money wagered on one side or the other has no bearing on the outcome of the game.

 

[murphy2317]

So this is my first time posting my picks anywhere, but I have done decent this year by doing my research and also reading this board. I'm not going to promise 70% or anything, but I have been posting in other's threads quite a bit and figured why not start my own. This is what I have for this weekend.

I nearly always bet the same amount on each play unless there is one or two plays I feel strongly about, so unless otherwise noted, my plays are always 1 unit.

Started off pretty shitty on my first play of USF, so hopefully that's out of the system.....

YTD 0-1-0


Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8
Louisville -13.5 (2 Units)
Minnesota -7
Washington +46.5 (Haven't played this yet because its moving in my favor. Will jump on it when I see it start to level off)
Michigan +1.5
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5 (2 Units)
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20

Oklahoma 1st Half (Will be eagerly waiting for this line to hit the board and if its 14 or less, this will be a 5 unit play)



BOL to everyone.

Picks I like-
-TCU
-Sota
-Mizzou

Picks I'm undecided about-
-Tulsa
-Michigan
-Washington
-Bowling Green
-Air Force

Picks I HATE-
- KU -8.5, KU is not very good this year, and I would not be surprised at all if KSU won straight up.

 

[bigwillokc]

BigWill, if you capped these games and are confident that statistically and situationally these are the correct side, then stick with it.

Question: Does money change the outcome of a game?? Simple answer is no.

What you do want to look up on such games as these are key injuries. Sometimes books will receive information that we do not regarding key players and if they will be playing.

Again, money wagered on one side or the other has no bearing on the outcome of the game.

I agree, but sometimes even that is hard to do....look at last night. Everyone on this board was saying Pike and Anderson were both out and I was hoping I picked up some good ammo to throw down some money on USF......

Then Pike comes out and shreds USF...

I have made all the plays already, with the exception of Washington, so I'm married to them. We'll see how it plays out.

I am still going to play Washington, but that number just keeps getting higher, so I'm holding off until I can get the largest number possible before I play it. Would be great to see it hit 49, but don't know if that will happen.

 

[bigwillokc]

ADDING OKLAHOMA -12 1/2 First Half for my biggest single play of the week. 5 units

 

[bigwillokc]

adding oklahoma -21 now thats it moved to that number

 

[bigwillokc]

adding FLORIDA -6.5

 

[GoSooners]

Good luck Big...I think that OU -12.5 first half is a good play.

 

[bigwillokc]

Adding two more games to finalize my saturday card..

Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8
Louisville -13.5 (2 Units)
Minnesota -7
Washington +46.5
Michigan +1.5
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5 (2 Units)
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20
Oklahoma -12.5 first half
Oklahoma -21
Florida -6.5
Utah -7 (Bought Hook)
Utah over 43.5 (3 Units)


May have one more play on Texas/Texas Tech, other than that, this is it for me tomorrow......BOL to Everyone

 

[thesandman1]

BigWill. I wish you luck and hope you prove me wrong but the juice is going to kill you when you play that many games. You have 15 plays. If you look in some of the threads from guys with winning records, you will see most of them play anywhere from 3 to 6 games on a Saturday. They can win going 3-2, you are going to have to go 9-6 to win. See how you would have done if you only played the four or five games where you are playing for more than a unit compared to how you do playing all 15 games.

If I were you and I like all 15 picks, I would play your best 5 and then play one ten team progressive parley with the other 10 games. That way you have the action you want on all your picks, but can only lose one time no matter how the 10 teams in the parley do. I know there are guys here who think Parleys are sucker bets but I've done very good playing Progressive Parleys where I can lose some and still win.

For example, at sportsbook.com a 10 team Progressive Parley pays 250 -1 if you get all 10 right. Nine out of 10 pays 25-1, 8 out of 10 pays 3-1 and you can miss three and still win 1-1. I hit 11 out of 12 a few weeks ago, which paid 40-1 or $4,000 for a hundred dollar bet. What ever you decide, hope you are a winner.

 

[bigwillokc]

Thanks for the advice I appreciate it. I may have to look for a new book because mine doesn't do progressive parlays. Thats a good idea. Thanks!

 

[bigwillokc]

What book do you suggest that does progressive parlays?

 

[bigwillokc]

Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8 WIN
Louisville -13.5
Minnesota -7
Washington +46.5
Michigan +1.5
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5 (2 Units)
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20
Oklahoma -12.5 first half
Oklahoma -21
Florida -6.5
Utah -7
Utah over 43.5

 

[bigwillokc]

Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8 WIN
Louisville -13.5
Minnesota -7 LOSS
Washington +46.5
Michigan +1.5
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5 (2 Units)
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20
Oklahoma -12.5 first half
Oklahoma -21
Florida -6.5
Utah -7
Utah over 43.5

 

[bigwillokc]

Bowling Green -6.5
Air Force -8 WIN
Louisville -13.5
Minnesota -7 LOSS
Washington +46.5
Michigan +1.5 LOSS
TCU -14
Kansas -8.5
Tulsa -7
Missouri -20
Oklahoma -12.5 first half
Oklahoma -21
Florida -6.5
Utah -7
Utah over 43.5

 

[machinegunkelly]

GL big willyl lets cash in big!

 

[bigwillokc]

Best games are all coming....lets roll