Big Ten

[RunLeeRun]

Since nobody ever runs a thread (probably due to wanting to avoid embarrassment, boredom, etc) about a half-ass conference, I'll run a half-ass thread on it..... this might get buried pretty quick, just like conference national title hopes... (insert laugh-track).

First thing on the agenda is conference realignment. We thankfully get rid of the awful division names in favor of geographical ones. East and West.

East: Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Penn St, Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers.
West: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue.

My knee-jerk reaction to this was hello Big 12 North Division! That was something Pelini could actually win. And, apologies to Northwestern and Iowa, but I really think it's a two horse race "most" years between two programs that have a lot in common. Nebraska-Wisconsin is the rival that seemed to make the most sense to me from day one. Glad to finally see it a yearly contest. The East is your Big 12 South. Ohio St a la Oklahoma and Michigan is Texas (you know, the team that should be good, but usually underachieves and gets stomped by its rival). Penn State will eventually get back to good and throw in Michigan State the emerging Okie light. It could get pretty brutal in the east.

What say ye?

 

[RunLeeRun]

Really, the inspiration for this thread was to toot my horn (again) a bit about how I called Michigan last summer. In summary, I called Al Borges a bad OC. He got Fired. Check. I thought Gardner was still far too green for all the hype he was getting. He started strong, but you could tell he regressed later on. Check. Though it didn't help that he really was a bad fit for that offense, imo. A good WR, great TE and two NFL linemen couldn't overcome those two major deficits. How the hell couldn't they run the ball! I'm going against the grain once again (or at least I think so, I've not yet seen much here about Michigan, is everyone still buying Wolverine stock?) and saying that Michigan will have another sub-par season. Hoke has done well at home, somewhere in the area of 18-2(?) with the two losses being the tail end. That and the year one anomaly where they had an astronomical positive turnover ratio has carried him in a rather ho-hum tenure so far. For 2014, this article just about sums it up.

A new OC and a inexperienced Oline, imo opinion, reek of an 8-4 regular season, that's if the D can continue to carry the torch (and I think they can and will, Mattison is a good DC). Is Hoke on the hot seat? I think so. When does Phil Steele drop the guillotine?

 

[ToothedTeddy]

on paper, Iowa's schedule is the easiest that I can remember. that alone makes them contenders. their toughest games (Neb and Wisc) are both at home and late in the season, typically when Ferentz' teams peak. toughest road game is Pitt. NW and ISU are always a thorn in their side but again, both are at home.

who knows what to expect from Nebraska but I don't see them ever being that great with Little Bo Peep at the helm. Wisky of course always solid but my Badger friends are saying to expect a bit of a regression from last year. West seems wide open so a soft schedule becomes magnified in my opinion.

East is more obvious - Ohio St and Mich St again. haven't researched enough to predict a sleeper team.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Since you brought up Nebraska..... its pretty common to hear the sentiments that Nebraska wont do much with Pelini. But people forget that this is Pelini's first headcoach job. The guy's learning on the fly and in a fisbowl of all fishbowls. We're no longer in a patient era where guys are given time to win and he's on the clock for sure. I'm not sure what his ceiling is, but I know the guy can coach. For all the one game eggs, his teams have never laid down for long and they could have last year with all the injuries and drama. This will be a big year for him. He's finally got a defense with some teeth again, that after letting the cupboards get a little bare. When he arrived, NU had D talent. His first 3 recruiting classes were bad and his team regressed. I talked before how recruiting has improved drastically starting with the 2012 class to today where they sit at #7 on rivals. I could go on, but I dont want this to be a Nebraska thread. Ive all summer to talk them up.

Serious question. How is it that Ferentz gets a pass? Its been a long time since he put two good seasons together?

 

[ToothedTeddy]

I agree that Pelini unfairly gets a bad rep as a coach and that expectations have been unrealistic - and when you break it down to just wins and losses the guy has done a pretty superb job given the circumstances. but obviously there's more to it than that, and Ferentz is a perfect example of this. he gets a longer leash because he's a likable guy with a pretty good track record at Iowa. the two situations are apples and oranges and maybe Pelini will prove the naysayers wrong... you have to admit that there is a sense of entitlement at Nebraska that most other programs don't have. heavy is the crown so to speak.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Entitlement? To what having a winning program, probably. But the commitment level is also near the top and when you win more games than any other program over the last 50 years... well, you probably do become narcissistic and begin to expect some things. I think that would happen just about anywhere.

 

[ToothedTeddy]

to expect a team to perform a certain way based on past performances - over the last 50 years as you mentioned - is unrealistic and only sets fans up for disappointment. not every coach is Tom Osborne, Bear Bryant, Woody Hayes, etc. look at the traditional blue bloods of college football and they all have their fair share of down years. hell it wasn't even 10 yrs ago that Bama was only winning 3-6 games a season. for some reason a good chunk of Nebraska fans think they're exempt from this. that's what I mean by entitlement. a winning program is a rather broad term.

 

[RunLeeRun]

Taking a quick look at the West

Illinois: RB Josh Ferguson is a beast. They may have to lean heavily on him while they break in a new QB. Transfer Wes Lunt didn't look too good in the spring game and it was kind of a given (from the outside anyway) that he'd take the reigns in 2014. Senior Reilly O'Toole looked the best. Defense was pretty bad ranking 116th in the run. They will have to fix that if they want to stay competitive. Road Schedule is brutal.

Returners; O - 7, D - 8

@ Home: Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa, Penn State
the Road: Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern

Iowa: QB Jake Rudock is still young, but a returning starter with significant experience now. Just a few seasons ago, iirc, they didn't have any healthy scholarship RB's. I think I read where they have like 9 now. O-line is said to have lots of potential and a star in OT Brandon Scherff. The question won't be running, but it's been a long time since the Hawkeyes could stretch the field in the passing game. They have to replace 3 very good linebackers...it was the best starting group in the Big Ten. The schedule sets up nicely and puts them as a division favorite.

Returners: O - 6, D - 5

@ Home: Indiana, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska
The Road: Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota, Illinios

Minnesota: Mitch Leidner now the unquestioned starter with Philip Nelson transferring. David Cobb and Donnell Kirkwood at RB have the position looking strong. The spring game was a major letdown for the offense as they struggled to score against a depleted defense. No more Ra'Shede Hegeman at DT. Defense is said to have more depth now, though. Schedule not in their favor for any kind of 2013 repeat.

Returners: O - 8, D - 7

@ Home: Northwestern, Purdue, Iowa, Ohio State
the Road: Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Wisconsin

Northwestern: 2014 should see a stable QB situation for NW. Trevor Siemian is the guy with the graduation of Colter. Fitzgerald is a highly respected coach and he's done very good at times. But I wonder, if after 8 years and he's still 10 games under 500, is his value a little overrated? Lots of returning starters, another 1-7 conference record would be a major letdown.

Returners: O - 9, D - 9

@ Home: Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Illinois
the Road: Penn State, Minnesota, Iowa, Purdue


Purdue: Spring game wasn't pretty. Not a lot of optimism even though Danny Etling will be an experience returning starter. Two good RB's in Hunt and Mostert. Most of the tough games are at home, but Purdue gets invaded easily by good fanbases.

Returners: O - 10, D - 8

@ Home: Iowa, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Northwestern
the Road: Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana

Wisconsin: QB Stave has been injured much of the spring opening the way for Sophomore Tanner McEvoy to show his stuff. He didn't impress, but part of that has to be that he was playing DB in 2013. That was a major gaffe, imo, (a la Devin Gardner) and makes QB depth very interesting. Wisconsin usually reloads at Oline, by the time Big Ten play begins they usually have their chemistry. Melvin Gordon is a Heisman candidate, but now he will be the primary guy, probably more runs from the HB spot as opposed to that jet sweep. Abbrederis will be very difficult to replace. Defense loses a lot of starters, but, iirc, they did rotate a lot in 2013, so guys won't be brand new and NG Warren Herring will be integral in the 3-4 scheme. Schedule probably makes them the odds on favorite to win the division.

Returners: O - 6, D - 3

@ Home: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota
the Road: Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, Iowa

Nebraska: After last year, Pelini was forced to loosen up and has even opened practice to the media again. Most likely Pelini's most talented team across the board. A legit AA at RB, Ameer Abdullah, and probably the best and deepest group of skill position players in the Big Ten. Offensive line is brimming with potential and depth, but they have to prove it and Tackle depth is still a question. The technically have 1 returning Oline starter, but the injuries were so many in 2013, that most of the youth exptected to make an impact played in some very meaningful games. The left side looks solid. QB returns though he'll have to make more strides (7-1 as a starter not too bad for a freshman). The offense should be angled more to his skill-set this year than in years past. On defense, DE Gregory is already a projected top 5 NFL pick, but I think the best potential superstar is sitting in DT in Malik Collins. He wasn't highly rated in HS (financial reasons) since he didn't attend many camps. He was a steal. His a 300 lbs-er that can play multiple position on the Dline. Is athletic enough to play rush end and has been in spring ball. Overall, LB's and DB's look pretty good. CB is a little thin on experience and when Pelini has an elite defense, it has always been with a very strong secondary. Special Teams were horrible. They lost games because of that last year. That will have to change as will the turnover bug. Spring ball was very clean turnover-wise. There seems to be a lot of momentum this off-season (recruiting is up there with the best.... for now), which is pretty surprising considering that coaches, players and fans all thought the staff was gone win or lose vs Iowa. Schedule is tougher than Wisconsin and Iowa, but with more overall talent than Iowa, I like think they are sitting at least in tie with Iowa for division odds.

Returners: O - 5, D - 6

@ Home: Illinois, Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota
the Road: Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Iowa