Big Ten Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

I have been researching all the teams in the respective conferences since Spring Practice began. I've decided to put my findings and opinions on teams -- whether good or bad -- in a conference by conference list of "play-on games." This will not only give you an idea of what I think about some of these teams, but it will also give you some games to be looking forward to playing.

Now, understand that this info is still very early and could change according to injuries, transfers, suspensions, and etc. I am also still watching the developments of some teams to see if they get stronger and more harmonized in Fall camp. So, take these thoughts as the way it stands now.

Ohio State

I look at this year's Ohio State team as being similar to the 2005 and 2006 teams where they ended the years with 9-3 and 9-4 ATS wins respectively. In other words, they are definitely a "play-on" team for ATS wins. They bring back 19 starters and 53 lettermen from the 11-2 National Runner-ups of 2007. The only weak spot for this team is that they play in the #4 strongest conference in the nation IMO. However, despite the weakness of the conference and of Ohio State's schedule this season, they do have one game on the schedule that has the possibility of keeping them out of the National Title game this year -- September 13th's meeting at USC.

-- Ohio State vs. Ohio September 6th -- I know that USC is on deck, but this is a MAC team for heaven's sake! Ohio can pick their score here, but the defense will hold Ohio to no more than a TD. My prediction: Ohio State wins 52-7.

-- Ohio State vs. Troy September 20th -- I'm making this a play-on game because I am predicting that USC will beat Ohio State and tOSU will be looking to vent some frustration here at home against the Sun Belt team. If Ohio State beats USC, this could very well become a "sleeper" for Troy. Please be aware of that. But, for now, I am going to predict a USC victory at home. Troy loses some key skill position players last year and should be an easy kill for Ohio State. My prediction: Ohio State wins 48-3.

-- Ohio State vs. Penn State October 25th -- This game will in all likelihood be for the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State has made it their Homecoming game and they have a bye-week on deck. I'm thinking the line will be -10 or less,and, My prediction: Ohio State wins 24-10.

-- Ohio State vs. Michigan November 22nd -- Senior Day and the wrap-up game to determine what BCS game they are likely to go to. I really think Michigan is going to be a fade team this season with their losses, coaching change, and installing a new offensive system. So, my prediction: Ohio State wins 42-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Penn State

Preseason gurus are awful optimistic in placing Penn State as the #2 team in Big Ten. I can certainly understand why: their schedule is weak with no real tough non-conference games and only two tough Big Ten road games (Wisconsin and tOSU), and the fact that they return 18 starters off a 9-4 team from last year. I have no doubt that they will likely have another great record and will most likely make it to a BCS bowl game, but I don't think there will be a great deal of playing on the spread as Penn State will likely be overinflated this year. Think about it, guys, Morelli was not what we would call a GREAT quarterback, and yet he started and played most of the time for the last two seasons. Now, we have a new starting QB who is a senior, but who's experience mainly came in "mop up" duty rolls. Devlin, the Sophomore QB hopeful cannot boast any more than that either, but these two are contending for the starting position and threw 10 times combined last season! I just can't play on a team that will likely have trouble at the beginning of the year producing high point spreads because of an inexperienced QB. Can you say, "Load the box?" (And, by the way, the RB is the other skill position they have to replace.) Also, this team has had a lot of suspensions, players kicked off and injuries in offseason. Be sure to check who is definitely playing before the first game kicks off. I may do more fading of this team than playing on.

-- Penn State vs. Iowa November 8th -- Coming off what should be a loss against Ohio State and a bye-week, PSU should be looking to kick somebody's ass. Even though this game is on the road, the QB should have his noodle waxed by now and a good gameplan going into Iowa. This game is sandwiched between Illinois and Purdue for Iowa. About the only good thing I can see going for Iowa this season is a returning offensive line. Steele has the overated, again, placing them as the 4th best team in the league. Hopefully, we get a short line here as PSU will likely be a road favorite. My prediction: Penn State wins 35-10.

-- Penn State vs. Indiana November 15th -- Indiana played a valiant season last year in the memory of their former coach, Hoeppner. I pulled for them all season myself. But, this season will likely prove to be less motivating. The QB, Lewis, has been kicked off the team and may not play. He missed all the Spring training. Almost the entire offensive line will be new. And the defense will have to replace 5 in various positions. This particular game comes in the midst of a tough run on the schedule: Wisconsin, at Penn State, and at Purdue to end the year. My prediction: Penn State wins 42-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wisconsin

Can we say with all confidence that Bret Bielema is a top 25 coach in the nation? He's only amassed a 21-5 record in the two years he's been head coach at Wisconsin. His coaching staff has also been a major part in this record and they remain with him for a 3rd year. Bringing back 17 starters and 48 lettermen off of 2007's 9-4 team. The only real question for this team will be who the next QB will be. However, they will have at least 4 decent QBs to choose from and all these guys competing against each other ought to make them better. It will help that whoever it is they will be working behind an experienced offensive line. No real questions on defense either, so expect another great year from Wisconsin (with them going 4-8 ATS last season, we might get better lines this season as well).

-- Wisconsin vs. Ohio State October 4th -- With Wisconsin starting a new QB this season, let's focus on the play-on spots being mid to late season choices. Wisconsin has a tough stretch in their schedule that starts at Michigan on Sept. 27th then goes, Ohio State, Penn State and at Iowa. Starting with Michigan, Wisconsin will play 9 straight games in a row! But, this being said, they get Ohio State at home and will likely be a good home-doggy to play on. I look for this game to be close. My prediction: Wisconsin loses 31-28.

-- Wisconsin vs. Illinois October 25th -- Last year Illinois handed Wisconsin their first loss 26-31. This season, Wisconsin draws them for homecoming in between two road games at Iowa and Michigan St. While both these games can't be overlooked, the focus should be very good on Illinois. If for some unforseen reason that Illinois beats Missouri and Penn State (which isn't likely), they could be unbeaten coming into this game and ranked in the top ten. Wisconsin should be motivated regardless. My prediction: Wisconsin wins 32-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

I'll try and finish this up tomorrow.

 

[trentmoney]

general rule of thumb for big 10 this season:

do not play against Oh st unless you're getting 18+ points

that's how much better they are than the rest of the conference
-and that's coming from a penn st fan

:toast:

 

[SoonerBS]

general rule of thumb for big 10 this season:

do not play against Oh st unless you're getting 18+ points

that's how much better they are than the rest of the conference
-and that's coming from a penn st fan

:toast:

I'd sure like to know your thoughts on the QB position for Penn St this year.

 

[trentmoney]

I'd sure like to know your thoughts on the QB position for Penn St this year.

i'm actually high on clark this season

2 things-
Morellis was awful, no leadership, no mobility, turnovers, no rythym for the offense
clark will also add a dimension with his running ability and i think a change from the constant criticism of morelli the last 2 years will be refreshing... i heard that two years ago morelli would break the huddle and forget what play was called by the time he got to the line of scrimmage... he either wasn't too sharp or was just too nervous

although it was limited, i saw some video of clark during the spring game and he made a beautiful pass 40 yds for a td that you could have hung laundry on... any questions about his arm strength were answered right there... we'll see but he's also not facing top secondaries like michigan and oh st until game 8 and 9

 

[SoonerBS]

Iowa

Personally, I can't believe some publications are ranking Iowa as high as they are this season in the Big 10. How often does Iowa have to disappoint everyone before we decide that maybe Ferentz just isn't getting it done in Iowa City anymore? Offensively they return 8 starters off a team that ranked 110th in the nation last season offensively. The one glimmer of hope Iowa has for better offensive performance this season is their offensive line. As long as the QB and other skill players don't commit a lot of turnovers (and they were +8 in the TO category last season), then the offense should be better. Defensively they ranked 37th in the nation last year, which is very respectable. The bad news is, they lost 6 starters off that defense and the linebacking corps was gutted. I know the Big Ten is down again this year, but it's really hard to place iowa much better than middle of the conference.

-- Iowa vs. Florida International September 6th -- Yes, I know FIU brings back 18 starters from last year, but that is 18 starters off a 1-11 team with the 119th ranked offense and 106th ranked defense in the nation. I don't know what the line on this game will be, but after Iowa works out the kinks in their home opener against Maine, they should be ready to slice through FIU very easily. My prediction: Iowa wins 35-7.

-- Iowa vs. Iowa State September 13th -- Iowa State sucked last year and still beat Iowa. But, that was at Ames. The game moves to Iowa City this year and Iowa State is pitiful on the road. I think Iowa wins the game SU and covers what should be a shorter line this year. My Prediction: Iowa wins 37-20.

-- Iowa vs. Wisconsin October 18th -- Iowa catches Wisconsin in a bad spot here as this game is sandwiched between Penn State and Illinois. Iowa plays Indiana the week before this game and has a bye-week following it. Even though this game is being played in Iowa City, I expect Wisconsin to come in here a small road favorite. My prediction: Iowa wins 21-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

Michigan

We all know what happened to this team last season and the losses they sustained this year. They have lost their QB, Henne, RB, Hart, WR, Manningham, and OL, Long. And, even though I like the head coaching change from Carr to Rodriguez, we all recognize the fact that it will likely take a couple of years to see drastic positive results. Let me say this though, it is not automatic for me anymore to fade a team based solely on coaching changes and scheme changes. I used to, but Rice, Air Force and Tulsa changed that bad habit. The key though is that you have to have seniors and smart players to go from one scheme to a completely different without missing a beat. That's not the case here with this Michigan team this season. With so many ingredients missing and so many variables unanswered, it's hard to find too many games to play on with Michigan.

-- Michigan vs. Toledo October 11th -- Michigan could be 1-4 by the time this game rolls around. Rodriguez doesn't mind running the score up on another opponent and the players should be ready for a "scorefest" by the time this game comes, even though they have Penn State on deck. My prediction: Michigan wins 52-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Illinois

Zookie finally cashed in a big season last year going 9-4 and taking the Illini to the Rose Bowl -- even though they got kicked by USC. I don't expect to see the Illini in another Rose Bowl this season, but I certainly don't think it is out of the question for them to go 8-5 or even 9-4 again. It will be hard to do without their powerful runner, Mendenhall. But, with returning QB, Juice Williams and DB, Vontae Davis, there is still some power under this hood. One of the things we do not want to forget is that Zookie has recruited well the last 3 years. With 13 returning starters and 44 lettermen, I expect the holes to be filled and the Illini to be competitive again this season. As far as play-on games are concerned, the Illini do not really catch any teams in bad spots with their schedule. But we'll point out a couple of games they should hammer.

-- Illinois vs. Minnesota October 11th -- This game comes after a game at Michigan (which I think Illinois has a good chance of winning) and is scheduled as the homecoming game for the Illini. Minnesota, though a little better this year, is still likely to struggle. I expect this to be a high scoring fiasco for Illinois. My prediction: Illinois wins 49-12.

-- Illinois vs. Indiana October 18th -- Even though Illinois will have a road game against Wisky on deck, I think they continue with what they likely started the week before with Minnesota and take advantage of an Indiana team that will be considerably down this year. My prediction: Illinois wins 44-7.

 

[SoonerBS]

Michigan State

I said this at the start of last season, "I love Mark Dantonio as a head coach." Nothing was done last season to erase that thought from my mind. Many did not believe Michigan State would end with a winning record last season, let alone go to a bowl game. Even though they had to change offensive and defensive schemes, this team under Dantonio went 7-6 SU and 8-4-1 ATS! With only 13 returning starters, and some of those significant, one would wonder, "should we fade them this year?" You do what you want, but in Dantonio I will trust.

-- Michigan State vs. Eastern Michigan September 6th -- It is very likely that MSU will come home to this game after a good ass-kicking by California on the road the week before. There's two rules to remember this year as last year, fade the MAC and Big Ten out of conference but when the Big Ten play the MAC out of conference, fade the MAC. Look for MSU to alleviate some frustration here in this game. My prediction: MSU wins 48-3.

-- Michigan State vs. Iowa October 4th -- This game falls between a road trip to Indiana and Northwestern. It is also the MSU homecoming game. Even though many publication have Iowa ranked above MSU in the Big Ten, I think the results at the end of the season will show different. My prediction: MSU wins 32-14.

-- Michigan State vs. Ohio State October 18th -- Last year, at Columbus, MSU played the Buckeyes to within a TD. They caught Ohio State looking ahead to Penn State in last season's game and guess who Ohio State is playing after MSU this year? The difference is that MSU plays Ohio State at home in this game which gives them an extra edge. MSU will be the home doggy in this one. My prediction: Ohio State wins 28-25.

 

[SoonerBS]

Northwestern

Northwestern had a surprising 6-6 record last season and I think they top that this season and make it to a bowl. Now, their defense is nothing special, but they return 8 starters there. They rely on their offense to win them games and that should happen again this season. The only question area, and the factor holding me back from making them a play-on team every game, is their offensive line where they have to replace 3 starters. If the line gels quickly, Northwestern will be a definite play-on team!

-- Northwestern vs. Syracuse August 30th -- Let's play on an opener here, shall we? In order for lowly Syracuse to win this game, they have to score more points than Northwestern. That's not likely to happen for a Syracuse team that only averaged 16.5 ppg last season but allowed nearly 35 ppg from their opponents. Syracuse, as we all know, is nothing special, but they are even less special away from the dome and on the road. Syracuse is going to a new style of offense this year that emphasizes the run game. It just so happens that Northwestern strongest feature defensively this year will be the defensive line. Last season they defended the run game better than the passing game. So, Syracuse looks to play into the strengths of Northwestern both offensively and defensively. My prediction: Northwestern wins 35-17.

-- Northwestern vs. Ohio September 20th -- Again, the rule of thumb will be to fade the MAC in non-conference - especially the teams that will likely be dropping back a notch or two from last season's performance such as Ohio. This will be Northwestern's 4th game of the season and the offensive line should be gelling well by this game. My prediction: Northwestern wins 38-6.

-- Northwestern vs. Michigan State October 11th -- Last year this game went into overtime and Northwestern won by a TD. You might think MSU will remember that, and they probably will, but this game will be played at Evanston and Northwestern catches Michigan St sandwiched between Iowa and Ohio State. I don't expect Northwestern to be +16 dogs this year, but I do expect to see a short line whether they are dogs or favorites. My prediction: Northwestern wins 35-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Purdue

I have to confess that Purdue had a much better season last year than I gave them credit for. They ended up 8-5 on the year. From that team they bring back 6 starters on offense, 6 starters on defense and 41 lettermen. Purdue's non-conference schedule is much tougher this year, so I don't expect to see them do nearly as well. However, this is Joe Tiller's last season, so it could be a year where the players play with the motivation of sending him off with a winning season. Because of the tougher non-conference schedule and finding no real bad spots with which they will be playing their opponents, I do not have any "play-on" games for Purdue. However, they WILL be a team to play OVERS on in TOTALS. They return their star QB, Curtis Painter for his senior season, they have a lot of talent at WR, they return their RB corps, and they should be solid on the offensive line. In other words, you can expect them to score points, which they have proven they can already do.

 

[SoonerBS]

Minnesota

I thought Minnesota would surprise some teams last year and would do well ATS even though they had a new coach and a fairly young team. Well, neither of those things happened. They went 1-11 SU & 4-7 ATS. Yeah, I lost some money on them. But, I'm thinking maybe I was a year off in my prediction. Brewster came in last year promising discipline and a better conditioned team. Now, in his second year, I'm ready to back him up again and say this team will be better than their 1-11 record of last season. They return 8 on offense, 7 on defense, and 42 lettermen. The defense last year sucked. They have to get better speed and depth if they want to be more successful this season. To do that, Brewster has recruited a couple of JUCOs that will likely start at Safety and Corner Back. The result was that the defense looked better in the Spring Game than the offense did. That is a surprising change from last Fall. Offensively the ingredients are there to be successful, but even though they have on year under their belts, the offense is still young.

-- Minnesota vs. Indiana October 4th -- Notice a trend with these Indiana games? lol This game is sandwiched between Ohio State and Illinois for Minnesota, but bad teams look for games that they can win and dominate, so I don't look for them to overlook a good opportunity here with Indiana. My prediction: Minnesota wins 28-7.

-- Minnesota vs. Northwestern November 1st -- Last year Minnesota couldn't stop a Northwestern rally to allow them a win in 2OT. I look for Minnesota to pencil this game in on their lockeroom chalkboard for a revenge situation. Also, this is Minnesota's homecoming while Northwestern has Ohio State on deck. My prediction: Minnesota wins 31-21.

 

[SoonerBS]

Indiana

I was on Indiana's bandwagon last year before Coach Hop died prior to the season. They just had a team put together that seemed to give them a chance to do as they did -- have a winning season and go to a bowl game. There is no doubt that the motivation provided by Hop's death helped this team tremendously. Unfortunately, not only should that be quelled this year, but they don't have the pieces fitting together either. They return only 13 starters back from that team and 50 lettermen. Kellen Lewis the QB has been suspended and there is no word as to whether he will play or not. Obviously this is a big decider as to whether we play any games with Indiana or not. Until we find out, I will opt to leave Indiana alone except to fade them because of the inexperience at WR, offensive line, and corner back positions.

 

[silver7]

If You`re Looking For A "Play On" Game

Look no farther than 9/6, Mn @ BG. I pray that the GG are impressive 8/30 vs NIU. So we can get a decent line here. BG SU!! Mn will be lucky to go 4/8, 5/7 IMO. And that`s giving them 3 non conf. W`s! A loss to FAU is also possible. Hope I`m wrong. Think Brewster can recruit, not too sure he`s that sharp on game day! We`ll see soon, only 66 days till KO!!! )

 

[SoonerBS]

Look no farther than 9/6, Mn @ BG. I pray that the GG are impressive 8/30 vs NIU. So we can get a decent line here. BG SU!! Mn will be lucky to go 4/8, 5/7 IMO. And that`s giving them 3 non conf. W`s! A loss to FAU is also possible. Hope I`m wrong. Think Brewster can recruit, not too sure he`s that sharp on game day! We`ll see soon, only 66 days till KO!!! )

I looked at that game whenever I was researching the Big Ten and made a note to make it a "play on" game for Bowling Green whenever I do the MAC . . . . . . I'm glad you agree . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

I'm going to try and get the Big 12 write-ups up tonight on my place and then I'll transfer them over here, guys.

 

[ToujoursPret]

I have been researching all the teams in the respective conferences since Spring Practice began. I've decided to put my findings and opinions on teams -- whether good or bad -- in a conference by conference list of "play-on games." This will not only give you an idea of what I think about some of these teams, but it will also give you some games to be looking forward to playing.

Now, understand that this info is still very early and could change according to injuries, transfers, suspensions, and etc. I am also still watching the developments of some teams to see if they get stronger and more harmonized in Fall camp. So, take these thoughts as the way it stands now.

Ohio State

I look at this year's Ohio State team as being similar to the 2005 and 2006 teams where they ended the years with 9-3 and 9-4 ATS wins respectively. In other words, they are definitely a "play-on" team for ATS wins. They bring back 19 starters and 53 lettermen from the 11-2 National Runner-ups of 2007. The only weak spot for this team is that they play in the #4 strongest conference in the nation IMO. However, despite the weakness of the conference and of Ohio State's schedule this season, they do have one game on the schedule that has the possibility of keeping them out of the National Title game this year -- September 13th's meeting at USC.

-- Ohio State vs. Ohio September 6th -- I know that USC is on deck, but this is a MAC team for heaven's sake! Ohio can pick their score here, but the defense will hold Ohio to no more than a TD. My prediction: Ohio State wins 52-7.

Before OSU played Texas in '05 & '06 they played MAC teams (Mia,Oh, '05; NoIll, '06) and the Bugeyes covered the spread - something Tressel does not usually do vs non-BCS'ers in the first month of the season. Since '93 he's 3-5 ATS (.375) in this situation. Less those 2 wins, he's 1-5 ATS but he needs to get his boys ready for the big non-conf game and national recognition. Look out Bobcats!!!

 

[silver7]

OSU This Tm Is Sooo Loaded

IMO they`re lucky to be playing Trojans early, before they (SC) gets their QB situation settled. After that they`re scarry! I like OSU by a FG in that one. Gators are waiting!!! Where are you Coach LT?