...on Saturday night's UFC PPV. PRIDE open weight GP champion Mirko "Cro Cop" Fillipovic is making his UFC debut against Eddie Sanchez. Basically, this is supposed to be a showcase for Cro Cop and Sanchez is being brought in to lose and make Mirko look good. The problem is that MMA ain't pro wrestling, and they can't script these things. There's no shortage of similar "showcase" bouts that end up going the wrong way--off the top of my head I can think of Heath Herring--another PRIDE vet--who lost badly by decision last week to Jake O'Brian in his UFC debut. At UFC 63 Jens Pulver was brought in for a similar showcase fight--the UFC had big plans for Pulver, as they had penciled him in as one of the "trainers" on the Ultimate Fighter reality show. His opponent, lightly regarded Joe Lauzon didn't get the memo and TKO'd Pulver in under a minute as a +600 or therabouts dog. Upsets abound in MMA--for example, Frank Mir--now famous for nothing more than being the pudgiest guy in MMA--submitted reigning UFC heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia in under a minute at UFC 43(IIRC).
Mirko is legit one of the top MMA heavyweights in the world, but there's a few "intangibles" that make the dog worth a look in this matchup. First, he hasn't competed since winning the PRIDE OWGP by beating two of the top MMA fighters in the sport in Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on the same night. Not to diminish his accomplishments, but Silva put on 20 pounds to fight Mirko and just couldn't handle his power. He "officially" won the final against Barnett by TKO, but his punches did less damage than an inadvertant eye poke. In any case, there's a real possibility for a "letdown" as he faces an uninspiring opponent that he's supposed to beat with ease.
Also, as I noted above this is his UFC debut but also his first fight in the USA *and* his first fight in the UFC octagon (as opposed to the more traditional pro wrestling/boxing style ring they use in the Japanese promotions K-1 and PRIDE). Some of the MMA hardcores I know suggest that this could pose a problem for Mirko--the octagon doesn't have as much spring as the ring he's used to fighting in and its been suggested that he'll have trouble getting as much elevation on his devestating high left kick.
He's used to fighting in front of the knowledable and respectful Japanese MMA fans, and who knows how he'll react in front of the bloodthirsty drunks in attendence at the Mandalay Bay. Finally, Sanchez is something of a question mark too--he won his UFC debut at UFC 63 by a dominating TKO over Mario Netto and has won all 6 of his pro MMA fights by stoppage (5 TKO, 1 submission). He's a tough Mexican American who definitely won't be intimidated. Based on my experience handicapping MMA its difficult to get a handle on fighters who've done well in lower profile organizations before making the jump to the bigtime. Also keep in mind the insane disparity in what the fighters are making--for example, when Jeff Monson fought Tim Sylvia a few months back Sylvia got well over a 100 g's for his night's work, while Monson got just over 10. Based on what Mirko can draw in Japan, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar disparity here meaning that Sanchez knows he can change his entire financial future with the upset.
There's a decent chance that this goes according to script and Mirko tears Sanchez's head off with his powerful striking. But at +1000 (5 Dimes) I'm willing to take a small speculative position on Sanchez....it ain't the lock of the century by a long shot but at 10/1 it doesn't have to be....
Mirko is legit one of the top MMA heavyweights in the world, but there's a few "intangibles" that make the dog worth a look in this matchup. First, he hasn't competed since winning the PRIDE OWGP by beating two of the top MMA fighters in the sport in Wanderlei Silva and Josh Barnett on the same night. Not to diminish his accomplishments, but Silva put on 20 pounds to fight Mirko and just couldn't handle his power. He "officially" won the final against Barnett by TKO, but his punches did less damage than an inadvertant eye poke. In any case, there's a real possibility for a "letdown" as he faces an uninspiring opponent that he's supposed to beat with ease.
Also, as I noted above this is his UFC debut but also his first fight in the USA *and* his first fight in the UFC octagon (as opposed to the more traditional pro wrestling/boxing style ring they use in the Japanese promotions K-1 and PRIDE). Some of the MMA hardcores I know suggest that this could pose a problem for Mirko--the octagon doesn't have as much spring as the ring he's used to fighting in and its been suggested that he'll have trouble getting as much elevation on his devestating high left kick.
He's used to fighting in front of the knowledable and respectful Japanese MMA fans, and who knows how he'll react in front of the bloodthirsty drunks in attendence at the Mandalay Bay. Finally, Sanchez is something of a question mark too--he won his UFC debut at UFC 63 by a dominating TKO over Mario Netto and has won all 6 of his pro MMA fights by stoppage (5 TKO, 1 submission). He's a tough Mexican American who definitely won't be intimidated. Based on my experience handicapping MMA its difficult to get a handle on fighters who've done well in lower profile organizations before making the jump to the bigtime. Also keep in mind the insane disparity in what the fighters are making--for example, when Jeff Monson fought Tim Sylvia a few months back Sylvia got well over a 100 g's for his night's work, while Monson got just over 10. Based on what Mirko can draw in Japan, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a similar disparity here meaning that Sanchez knows he can change his entire financial future with the upset.
There's a decent chance that this goes according to script and Mirko tears Sanchez's head off with his powerful striking. But at +1000 (5 Dimes) I'm willing to take a small speculative position on Sanchez....it ain't the lock of the century by a long shot but at 10/1 it doesn't have to be....
