first of all, this play is as strong as my last weeks' mnf play when i won with minnesota (they won outright as road dogs). that doesn't mean that you have to bet your house on it. i'm stil around 50% in the nfl with all of my selections compared to cfb where i have won every week. so far the nfl has been up and down for me winning consistently only with the best systems like atlanta and jacksonville this week that won outright as underdogs. those who have access to my best weekly systems know that these have been hitting at an extremely high winning % in both cfb and nfl so far this season. but the goal is to win with all plays and not only best ones. so, it is a 1 unit play just like any other plays, but it is one of my two best plays when it comes to my confidence in a bet.
CLE +9 vs NYG
the giants are the superbowl champions and they are playing like it right now. looking at their stats, we can not really find a soft spot, as they are ranked #1 in total offense and #3 in total defense.
but this is a VERY dangerous game for them right here. their opponents in last three weeks (cincy, st.louis and seattle) have a combined ytd record of 2-14 su and 4-12 ats. they have played three home games (out of 4 games played) so far this season, and they had a bye in week 4, as well as a semi-bye week as they had 9 days or rest in between their first and second game of the season. their main divisional rivals, dallas and washington both lost this week, and with their 4-0 record (4-0 teams favored by 7-14 pts are only 3-14 ats in last 17), the giants are very confortable in the first place in their division. they are on the road against the 1-3 cleveland browns (and they are 12-0 on the road in last 12 games) and next week they are at home again, against the 2-4 sf 49ers. they are probably feeling very confident that they will bring a 6-0 record with them when they go to pittsburgh on october 26th. it might happen, but if they don't take this cleveland team seriously, that dream could come to an end tonight. and not taking bad teams seriously has been a major concern for this giants team. last week they destroyed a bad seattle team, but it was probably up until this week that many people (including myself) considered this seattle team good enough to bounce back after a bad start. in week 3 they barely edged the winless bengals in overtime, in week 2 they killed st.louis but stil had only a 7 pts lead up until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, and in week 1 they started furious against supposedly bad washington team only to score 0 pts in the second half in a try to protect the 9 pts halftime lead. the giants are 3-10 ats in last 13 games as 6.5+ pts favorites vs teams not better than 2 games under .500 (0-3 since last year), including the overtime win and no cover against cincy this season, the non cover against miami and outright loss to minnesota last season. their closest game this season came against cincinnati and that was their first and only non conference game so far this season, and this one is the second one, vs cleveland, a team that got its first win of the season against that same cincinnati team. the teams that played the giants relatively close this season, washington and cincinnati, have one thing in common, and thats a solid pass defense, as they are ranked #13 and #5 in that category. cleveland is ranked #10 in that same category and #7 in defensive qb rating. their defense is getting healthier and with the rest, they should be strong tonight. in their last three games, the browns have not allowed any pts in the first quarter and a total of 20 pts combined in the first half of all three games. the problem was in the fact that the browns could not keep the ball offensively to rest their defense and that defense simply collapsed in the second half. they are rested now and should be able to keep the browns in this game until the end. this team could have been 3-1 instead of 1-3 if their offense was just a little bit more productive. that's how strong their defense has been.
in a battle of two good defensive teams allowing less than 20 ppg, the road faves of -1.5/-11.5 pts are 17-44 ats in weeks 2-14 after scoring 33+pts. and if the line is -5.5/-11.5 they are 0-13 ats.
the giants had a big rushing game in a big win last week, but in weeks 4-8, the road favorites of -2.5 pts or more are are only 0-13 ats and 1-12 straight up after a 19+ pts win and 180+ rushing yards.
cleveland played their last two games on the road, and winally won one game to keep their playoffs hopes alive before their bye week. i explained last week how powerfull this angle is when you have a 1-3 team getting the points in their 5th game of the season, and this is especially true for these browns as their future schedule gives them no 'second chance'. they have to win this game if they want to keep on dreaming. with a loss, they are pretty much done for the season with road trips to washington and jacksonville in the next two weeks as well as games vs denver, baltimore, buffalo, indiana, tennesse, philladelphia and pittsburgh after that. there is no marge of error for them, and as a home dog, after a road dog win (another strong angle explained in my atlanta vs chicago writeup), they just have to deliver.
1-3 dogs of 2-9 pts against non conference teams with at least 1 win are 42-15 ats if they did not win by 17+ pts the previous week.
home dogs after a road dog win are 31-9 ats against non divisional opponents after a home favorite win.
nfc favorites of 7+ pts are 8-18-2 ats on the road against afc.
my ratings show the giants 20 places better and at that, along with a huge support for the over puts them in the similar situation as denver when they lost at kc and san diego when they lost in miami. and when you have a huge, even overwhelming majority of bets on the over, in a game where the teams involved are not supposed to play a close game according to the line, expect the unexpected. the over has a major support of over 70% in a game where we have a rather big public favorite of 9 pts. this doesn't happen all that often, but when it does, watch out ! the unpublic teams usually cover in great way. the most recent games that fit this system have been: cincinnati going to overtime against the giants this season as huge underdogs, cincinnati almost beating dallas last week again as huge underdogs, the jets as huge public underdogs got killed in san diego, seattle as huge public underdogs got killed in a playoff game at green bay last year, philladelphia almost beat new england as 21 pts underdogs last year, 0-8 st.louis got their first win as huge underdogs at new orleans last year, seattle losing as huge public favorites against the pathetic carolina panthers late last season and so on.
the giants have had just one game this season with the overwhelming support for the over and it was their game vs cincinatti and they almost lost it. the browns had two games with a big support for the over (none as big as this one) and they covered the spread in both of them, at home vs pittsburgh and on the road against cincinnati.
the giants are also in a 0-11 ats group of teams this season and that group includes some of the biggest upsets we have seen ytd.
the list includes:
buffalo vs oakland (barely won, not even close to cover the line)
ny giants vs cincinatti (won in ot, not even close to cover)
new orleans vs minnesota (lost at home on mnf as favorite)
san diego @ miami (losing outright as big favorite)
chicago @ atlanta (losing this week as favorite)
and also
arizona losing in washington
denver not covering vs new orleans
green bay losing big to dallas
atlanta losing and not covering in carolina
buffalo losing big in arizona
new england losing vs miami.
don't underestimate the desperation of 1-3 teams. don't underestimate the home dogs after a road dog win. and don't underestimate the 'trap game'factor. the players and the coaches always say how they know when they face a trap game and that they are ready for the challenge. but in reality, the letdown happens very often in this spot.
my prediction: 21-17 someone.
Play: Cleveland +9
CLE +9 vs NYG
the giants are the superbowl champions and they are playing like it right now. looking at their stats, we can not really find a soft spot, as they are ranked #1 in total offense and #3 in total defense.
but this is a VERY dangerous game for them right here. their opponents in last three weeks (cincy, st.louis and seattle) have a combined ytd record of 2-14 su and 4-12 ats. they have played three home games (out of 4 games played) so far this season, and they had a bye in week 4, as well as a semi-bye week as they had 9 days or rest in between their first and second game of the season. their main divisional rivals, dallas and washington both lost this week, and with their 4-0 record (4-0 teams favored by 7-14 pts are only 3-14 ats in last 17), the giants are very confortable in the first place in their division. they are on the road against the 1-3 cleveland browns (and they are 12-0 on the road in last 12 games) and next week they are at home again, against the 2-4 sf 49ers. they are probably feeling very confident that they will bring a 6-0 record with them when they go to pittsburgh on october 26th. it might happen, but if they don't take this cleveland team seriously, that dream could come to an end tonight. and not taking bad teams seriously has been a major concern for this giants team. last week they destroyed a bad seattle team, but it was probably up until this week that many people (including myself) considered this seattle team good enough to bounce back after a bad start. in week 3 they barely edged the winless bengals in overtime, in week 2 they killed st.louis but stil had only a 7 pts lead up until 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter, and in week 1 they started furious against supposedly bad washington team only to score 0 pts in the second half in a try to protect the 9 pts halftime lead. the giants are 3-10 ats in last 13 games as 6.5+ pts favorites vs teams not better than 2 games under .500 (0-3 since last year), including the overtime win and no cover against cincy this season, the non cover against miami and outright loss to minnesota last season. their closest game this season came against cincinnati and that was their first and only non conference game so far this season, and this one is the second one, vs cleveland, a team that got its first win of the season against that same cincinnati team. the teams that played the giants relatively close this season, washington and cincinnati, have one thing in common, and thats a solid pass defense, as they are ranked #13 and #5 in that category. cleveland is ranked #10 in that same category and #7 in defensive qb rating. their defense is getting healthier and with the rest, they should be strong tonight. in their last three games, the browns have not allowed any pts in the first quarter and a total of 20 pts combined in the first half of all three games. the problem was in the fact that the browns could not keep the ball offensively to rest their defense and that defense simply collapsed in the second half. they are rested now and should be able to keep the browns in this game until the end. this team could have been 3-1 instead of 1-3 if their offense was just a little bit more productive. that's how strong their defense has been.
in a battle of two good defensive teams allowing less than 20 ppg, the road faves of -1.5/-11.5 pts are 17-44 ats in weeks 2-14 after scoring 33+pts. and if the line is -5.5/-11.5 they are 0-13 ats.
the giants had a big rushing game in a big win last week, but in weeks 4-8, the road favorites of -2.5 pts or more are are only 0-13 ats and 1-12 straight up after a 19+ pts win and 180+ rushing yards.
cleveland played their last two games on the road, and winally won one game to keep their playoffs hopes alive before their bye week. i explained last week how powerfull this angle is when you have a 1-3 team getting the points in their 5th game of the season, and this is especially true for these browns as their future schedule gives them no 'second chance'. they have to win this game if they want to keep on dreaming. with a loss, they are pretty much done for the season with road trips to washington and jacksonville in the next two weeks as well as games vs denver, baltimore, buffalo, indiana, tennesse, philladelphia and pittsburgh after that. there is no marge of error for them, and as a home dog, after a road dog win (another strong angle explained in my atlanta vs chicago writeup), they just have to deliver.
1-3 dogs of 2-9 pts against non conference teams with at least 1 win are 42-15 ats if they did not win by 17+ pts the previous week.
home dogs after a road dog win are 31-9 ats against non divisional opponents after a home favorite win.
nfc favorites of 7+ pts are 8-18-2 ats on the road against afc.
my ratings show the giants 20 places better and at that, along with a huge support for the over puts them in the similar situation as denver when they lost at kc and san diego when they lost in miami. and when you have a huge, even overwhelming majority of bets on the over, in a game where the teams involved are not supposed to play a close game according to the line, expect the unexpected. the over has a major support of over 70% in a game where we have a rather big public favorite of 9 pts. this doesn't happen all that often, but when it does, watch out ! the unpublic teams usually cover in great way. the most recent games that fit this system have been: cincinnati going to overtime against the giants this season as huge underdogs, cincinnati almost beating dallas last week again as huge underdogs, the jets as huge public underdogs got killed in san diego, seattle as huge public underdogs got killed in a playoff game at green bay last year, philladelphia almost beat new england as 21 pts underdogs last year, 0-8 st.louis got their first win as huge underdogs at new orleans last year, seattle losing as huge public favorites against the pathetic carolina panthers late last season and so on.
the giants have had just one game this season with the overwhelming support for the over and it was their game vs cincinatti and they almost lost it. the browns had two games with a big support for the over (none as big as this one) and they covered the spread in both of them, at home vs pittsburgh and on the road against cincinnati.
the giants are also in a 0-11 ats group of teams this season and that group includes some of the biggest upsets we have seen ytd.
the list includes:
buffalo vs oakland (barely won, not even close to cover the line)
ny giants vs cincinatti (won in ot, not even close to cover)
new orleans vs minnesota (lost at home on mnf as favorite)
san diego @ miami (losing outright as big favorite)
chicago @ atlanta (losing this week as favorite)
and also
arizona losing in washington
denver not covering vs new orleans
green bay losing big to dallas
atlanta losing and not covering in carolina
buffalo losing big in arizona
new england losing vs miami.
don't underestimate the desperation of 1-3 teams. don't underestimate the home dogs after a road dog win. and don't underestimate the 'trap game'factor. the players and the coaches always say how they know when they face a trap game and that they are ready for the challenge. but in reality, the letdown happens very often in this spot.
my prediction: 21-17 someone.
Play: Cleveland +9
But I'm with you! GET EMMMMMMMM.
