BIG GAME - 1st Quarter Over Under question and convince me from taking UNDER 14pts

[BookieKiller9]

My local book just sent out his prop sheets for the big game tomorrow. I been looking at value on some props throughout the week. So far the first one I found was my local has the 1st Quarter OVER / UNDER at 14 points (-120 both ways).

I am seeing 13-13.5 all over but do not see any 14s out there anywhere. Most of the 13.5 I am seeing -130 to -145 on the under. I think UNDER 14 in 1st Q has a lot of value. I know both teams have great offenses but I think the first quarter will be a battle of not making mistakes. Each team will try to execute there first 15 scripted plays. Yeah its possible both teams drive right down the field and score a TD each but I just do not see a very high scoring 1st quarter. With the line at 13-13.5 I still like the under but being that it is 14 on the nose, basically 2 TDs and another score have to happen. I just don't see that happening here.

Looking at the 10 games for each team.
Patriots- 10-0 / 14-3 (against HOU) / 14-0 / 10-0 / 3-3 / 9-0 / 7-0 / 3-0 / 6-3 / 7-6 (so using 14 as the OV/UN- here was record Over 1 time / Under 8 times / Push 1)

Atlanta- 10-0 / 7-0 / 14-10 (against Saints) / 13-0 / 21-0 (against SF) / 7-0 / 10-6 (against KC) / 7-7 / 7-0 / 10-7 (TB) - In ATL games over last 10 went over 14pts - 4 times / Under 5 times / Push 1 time


So out of the last 20 games (10 for each team) the r1st Quarter scores (5 times over 14pts / 13 times under 14pts / 2 Push landed on 14)

So now lets look at the 1st Quarter scores of the last 16 Superbowls since 2000.

2000 season 7-0
2001 3-0
2002 3-3
2003 0-0
2004 3-0
2005 3-0
2006 14-6
2007 3-0
2008 3-0
2009 10-0
2010 14-0
2011 9-0
2012 9-0
2013 8-0
2014 0-0
2015 10-0

Again, looking at the last 16 Superbowl games the first Quarter score was UNDER 14 pts (14 times , OVER 14 pts 1 time and pushed at 14 - 1 time)


Can anyone talk me out of not taking this UNDER 14 points in the 1st Quarter with my local? Any insight would be great.

Thanks. I will be looking into more value on a few others plays as well.

 

[PeePee]

If my book has 14 I would play under
...Maybe wrong but no Pats previous 6 SBs has scored more than 10. And a few were 0-0. BB always game plan to shut you down out of the gate.

 

[X-Files]

If i could get under 14 -110 i'd be all over it for the limit.

One could also play over 13.5 +120 for a free shot, or over 13 +105.

 

[BLAK_MAMBA]

Great research, been looking at this one for a while now, im glad im not the only one thinking about hammering the under 1st qtr. One of the crazy stat too is, of all the superbowl winning yrs of the pats, they didn't score a single pt in the 1st qtr, as in ZERO pts, nada.

 

[BookieKiller9]

Nice points guys. Hoping to hear from some others as well. Good luck to all you guys

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

Have to consider how bad ATL's defense is compared to teams in the past combined with how prolific ATL's offense is even though NE has a great defense.


I'd probably lean under as well if you are getting 14 but this is an unorthodox Super Bowl. Neither of these teams has any history against each other, ATL isn't a historic franchise, you have two powerhouse offenses going against each other but only one great defense. That has to be accounted for no matter how many people want to try and discredit NE.

Both teams can run the football so you have that going for you.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Counting the playoffs, the Falcons have scored an opening-drive touchdown in 8 straight games ... NE defense is nothing great.

Good possibility of 7 quick ones right from the get go ...

 

[BookieKiller9]

Any body else on UNDER 14 1st Q.

 

[X-Files]

There's a decent chance it lands on 13 or 14, so under 14 & over 13 for a free shot is what i'd probably do.

Nobody but a local is going to give you 14, but i lean to the under even at 13.5.

An opening TD drive could easily eat up half the quarter. Then another drive for a FG might use up most of the rest of it, leaving little time for a 3rd score.

 

[chonce]

I am on the first half UNDER 29 but I think taking FH under is wise as well. I rarely take QTR bets, although I have.

 

[BookieKiller9]

Chance - nice call on under 1st half. Played 1st Q BIG and also played 1st half. Thanks for the input for those that replied...


wished continued success to all of you

 

[Willie99]

nice call killer

 

[varkeyboy]

Congrats. Great call! This was definitely way too high for an NFL FIRST QTR.....especially being the SuperBowl.