Big East Play-On Games in 2008

[SoonerBS]

Again, I want to reiterate that these write-ups are based on current conditions and speculations. Future unforseen injuries, transfers and suspensions could negate these plays, but right now, these look like some good "situational spots" to play on these teams in certain games. Feel free to agree or disagree.

West Virginia


I know I am liable to get the ire of the West Virginia fans here, but I look at this year as the year to fade West Virginia. Now, don't get me wrong, I recognize the fact that we can see some existing talent on this team despite their losses. Pat White comes back this year and will be a Heisman hopeful based on his past performances. He also has entire offensive line back which is huge considering that they will be breaking in a new RB, AND they are going to have to rely on their offense this year to win most of their games. But, this team is fadeable for these reasons: Rodriguez has left the program he virtually put back on the map. I know Stewart led this team to a bowl win over Oklahoma last season, but one game does not prove a coach -- a season does. I think this team will miss Rodriguez's leadership. Secondly, the defense only brings back 4 starters from last year. WVU has recruited some JUCO players to try and mend some of the holes, but the performance of this squad is going to be down regardless. (Also note that the projected starter at SS, Charles Pugh, has been kicked off the team for the using a stolen credit card.) Probably though, one of the biggest reasons to fade this team is because of the continuing hype surrounding the program. Despite their losses of Slaton and their defense, Preseason Publications are still placing them in the top 10 in the nation. This can't help but inflate the lines on WVU games early in the season and we should be able to cash in on this fact.

-- West Virginia vs. Auburn October 23 -- This is a Thursday Night ESPN game and I always go with the home team no matter the line. Yes, I think it could be likely that WVU will be a home doggie in this one. If WVU is favored, it may end up being a "no play" game for me because I think Auburn wins this one SU. But, there is a chance WVU could have 2 losses by this game which should favor Auburn in the lines. We'll see what the lines bring us. My prediction: Auburn wins 36-30. (It could be too much to ask for a line of +7 here, but this is the only spot I can see worth playing on WVU this year.)

 

[SoonerBS]

South Florida

Here's my vote for the Big East Champion this season. USF comes off a 9-4 season and brings back 10 starters on offense, 7 starters on defense and 62 lettermen!! Whenever you bring back this much experience off a 9-4 team, it's really hard for me to see why publicist don't want to give them THE legitimate shot at conference Champions. Again, I think this is a result of the hype machine surrounding WVU and Pat White. USF's offense put up an average of 34.7 ppg last year. Defensively they only allowed 23.4 ppg and they bring back 5 of their top 6 tacklers from last year! Guys, the only hole that exists on this team is at the cornerback position, but even if they turn out to be mediocre, they should get plenty of help from the rest of the defense to overcome their weaknesses. For some reason the hype of last season is gone. Good for us gamblers.

-- South Florida vs. Kansas September 13 -- Kansas finally grew at least one testicle this year and decided to play at least one game against an opponent ranked in the top 25 in non-conference. Unfortunately for them, it will probably be their first loss of the season. This should be a short line here and USF's experience and homefield advantage will win out. My prediction: USF wins 42-35.

-- South Florida vs. Pittsburgh October 2nd -- This is another Thursday Night ESPN game and I love the coaching mismatch here. Personally, I think the win over WVU last year to end their season was just a fluke. Wanny is not a good game coach and his offensive scheme is outdated. My Prediction: USF wins 49-28.

-- South Florida vs. Rutgers November 15 -- We probably all remember how Rutgers beat then #2 USF last season in another one of those Thursday Night ESPN games where Rutgers was the home team and favored by -1. This loss literally threw USF's season into a downward spiral as they lost the next two games against UCONN and Cincy. There has to be a desire here from this USF team to seek some revenge against Rutgers because they scheduled a bye-week previous to this game this year. USF gets this one at home and is much more talented than "Riceless" Rutgers this year. My prediction: USF wins 35-24.

 

[SoonerBS]

Pittsburgh

While Pittsburgh allowed only 24.3 ppg to their opponents, this is an offense that only averaged 22.8 ppg. This is probably the big reason why their record was only 5-7. Now, for some reason (maybe the 15 starters and 53 lettermen coming back from last season), preseason publicists have Pittsburgh contending for the Big East title. I just don't see it. While I do think they will likely win enough games to get to a Bowl this season, it may not be more than a game or two more than last year. Wannstedt is a coach who is entering the fourth year with this team and is only 16-19 to show for it. For someone who came in with the hoopla he did to this program, it has to be embarrassing for the entire program. I just don't think he has what it takes to be successful as a head coach on a higher level. When has he ever proved it? He's trying to implement the same offensive scheme he ran while coaching the Dolphins. Well, hell, how well did it work then? Excuse me if I don't get too excited about this Pitt program this year.

-- Pittsburgh vs. Iowa September 20th -- Pitt is lucky enough to play this game after the Iowa State game and before Iowa plays their first conference game against Northwestern the following week. Pitt comes off a bye-week here and should be ready for Iowa. This could be called the "Overhyped Coaches Bowl Game." My prediction: Pittsburgh wins 24-10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Rutgers

Let me start by saying that I think Rutgers will be a really good UNDER team to play on this year. Despite the hype they are getting about possibly being the best passing attack in the Big East this year, I really don't think their offense will be that special. Here's why: Rice is gone. Rice was special. Their offense for the last two seasons has revolved around Rice. Their passing game was successful and productive because Rice was in the backfield. Another element that made Rice and Teel both productive was their offensive linemen. They have to replace 3 on that line this season. Can Teel and his host of receivers do it all themselves? Not likely. At least not in my mind. Defensively though, they shouldn't miss a beat off the 22.5 ppg allowance from last season.

-- Rutgers vs. North Carolina September 11th & Rutgers vs. Louisville December 4th -- The two games I found for "play-on" games with Rutgers are both Thursday Night ESPN home games. Rutgers does real well in these kind of games as last year's game versus USF proves. Both of these opponents should be a notch better this year, but it's hard to go on the road and the home crowd and team love ESPN Thursday night!

 

[SoonerBS]

Louisville

The bad news for Louisville is that they only return 9 starters from last season. The good news for Louisville is that they only return 9 starters from last season. Did you catch that? What a nightmare first season for Kragthorpe. I'm a believer that Kragthorpe is a much better coach than what was proved last season. I don't know if he just made a bad hire on DC (he apparently thought so since he fired him and hired a new one) or if Petrino left the cupboard bare on the defensive side of the ball. For a team that averaged 35 points per game, offense was not the problem for Louisville. We can place the sole responsibility on their defense who allowed 31.4 ppg. Despite the atrocity of the defense, this team still managed to go 6-6. Brohm is gone off last year's offense, but Cantwell is already being touted as a possible NFL QB prospect, so they shouldn't drop too much at QB. Their starting RB is back and the line looks fairly solid. I think where they will show some struggle offensively this year could be at the receiving as they replace all their receivers this year. Still, in an offense where passing is the norm, a lot of experience from the start should produce better results as the year progresses. The only question mark remains then -- will the defense be any better? Again, the hope lies in this -- they replace 6 starters off last season's team and you KNOW the defense will be the emphasis in the offseason. I think they have to be better. Still, there are too many questions surrounding this team for me to recommend any games to play on. I will, however, be watching this team's progress through the season.

 

[SoonerBS]

Cincinnati

I loved what Brian Kelly did at Central Michigan and I loved what he did last year at Cincy. One thing you know is going to be true about a Kelly team -- they are going to play defense, and they are going to play it well! This team allowed only 18.8 ppg to their opponents last season and the team in general went 10-3. Losing 10 starters off last year's team, there are going to be a lot of people fading Cincy and not giving them a chance. Although I do not think they will have as successful a season this year as last year, I'm not ready to fade them ATS. Brian Kelly teams are 29-16-2 ATS in last 4 seasons! Cincy picks up Notre Dame transfer, Demetrius Jones to replace Mauk at QB and although I expect some rookie struggles, he's talented enough to improve as the season goes along (he actually started one game at Notre Dame before transferring.) The RB is being replaced but all the receivers are back. Although the offensive line replaces 3, they will all be experienced linemen. So, offensively, I look for Cincy to continue to be productive and improve as the season goes on. Defensively they will be solid again. The defensive end position will be watched carefully as two new starters start here as well as at the safety positions. However, there was depth on this side of the ball the last two years and there is depth there this year as well.

-- Cincinnati vs. Miami, OH September 20th -- This game is billed as a rivalry and usually has a reasonable line on it as a result of this fact. Last season, Cincy was a -7 favorite and won the game on the road 47-10. Miami, OH will be a notch better this year, but a notch better in the MAC is still below BCS team standards by quite a lot. My prediction: Cincy wins 34-14.

-- Cincinnati vs. South Florida October 30th -- This is a Thursday Night home game on ESPN. Cincy will likely be a home doggie in this game as USF may be undefeated coming into this one. This is also kind of a bad spot if it were not for being an ESPN Thursday night game for Cincy as they play UCONN on the road previous to this game and West Virginia on the road following this game. If Cincy wins this game or plays very close as I am predicting, we need to fade them the next week against West Virginia. My prediction: USF wins 31-28.

-- Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh November 22nd -- I think this is a really bad spot for Pittsburgh as they will obviously be looking forward to the next week's Friday night game against West Virginia. By this time, Cincy should be clicking on all cylinders. My prediction: Cincinnati wins 24-14.

 

[rolltide]

I really love Pitt taking out Rutgers as their big "play on" game. It's the lone home game in a streak of 5 weeks and Pitt still feels hard done by the refs from last year after outplaying RU on the road.

The play against game for Pitt is Thur night at USF. They should be 4-0 after beating Syracuse and will be probably in the top 20 at that point. It will come apart in Tampa

As far as WVU/Barn it's definitely worth noting that The Barn's new Defensive Coordinator is the guy that put together the plan for Pitt to hold unbeaten WVU to 9 points at home. (paul rhoads)

 

[SoonerBS]

Connecticut

Now, we get to the "Rodney Dangerfield" team of the Big East -- Connecticut. What does UCONN have to do to gain some respect nationally? They went from a 4-8 season in 2006 to a 9-4 season last year. This year, they return 17 starters from that team! And with all this, Steele ranks them next to last in his conference standings. I obviously don't agree. I know that the schedule is not as favorable for them this season as last season. I know they profited from a +14 TO margin last season. And, I know they ended the year 1-3 last season. BUT, does this warrant them being dropped in the cellar? Is the Big East so tough that UCONN's best team ever will not even get a smell at repeating as co-Champions? All I really know is that the 8-4 ATS record they accumulated last season could be repeated this year with no more respect a team this good is getting.

-- UCONN vs. Virginia September 13th -- So, do we call this game the game between the "Teams of Fortune" according to last year? I know that Virginia loses a lot off last year's team and UCONN does not. This year's game is being played at Storrs and I think UCONN rolls them big. My prediction: UCONN wins 38-10.

-- UCONN vs. Baylor September 19th -- This will be the first meeting between these two teams and while I look for Baylor to be a bit improved from last season, it's asking a lot for them to go all the way to Storrs for a Friday night game and cover the spread against an experienced team. My prediction: UCONN wins 45-24.

-- UCONN vs. West Virginia November 1st -- Last year, UCONN was +20 dogs to WVU and lost the game 66-21 to close out their regular season. The game shifts to Storrs this season, UCONN will be better and WVU a little worse, and they will likely be home doggies. This is a sandwich game for WVU between Auburn and Cincy. Good spot for UCONN. My prediction: UCONN wins 35-31.

-- UCONN vs. Pittsburgh December 6th -- This game will follow Pitt's big game at WVU while UCONN will have a bye-week. Senior Day for several of the UCONN players including QB, Tyler Lorenzen. I expect an all-out effort here by UCONN to end the season. My prediction: UCONN wins 28-21.

 

[SoonerBS]

I really love Pitt taking out Rutgers as their big "play on" game. It's the lone home game in a streak of 5 weeks and Pitt still feels hard done by the refs from last year after outplaying RU on the road.

The play against game for Pitt is Thur night at USF. They should be 4-0 after beating Syracuse and will be probably in the top 20 at that point. It will come apart in Tampa

As far as WVU/Barn it's definitely worth noting that The Barn's new Defensive Coordinator is the guy that put together the plan for Pitt to hold unbeaten WVU to 9 points at home. (paul rhoads)

Thanks for the input. It's always great to hear what guys are thinking that follow teams closely in their respective conference.

:toast:

 

[SoonerBS]

Syracuse

This is the TRUE cellar team of the Big East. The Orange went 2-10 last season prompting Syracuse athletic director Daryl Gross to tell Robinson he'll be gone unless significant improvement is shown. Well, goodbye Coach Robinson. Even though Cuse brings back 14 starters off last year's team, it's 14 starters off a badly losing team. And, it gets worse, WR, Mike Williams was kicked off the team. He was the only true playmaker Syracuse had returning. Syracuse only averaged 16.4 ppg last season and allowed their opponents 34.8 ppg. Use to, you could find some "play-on" games with Cuse at home in their dome. But, with the way this program is now, I can't even find any games to play on at home. Syracuse is best faded.

 

[ToujoursPret]

Sooner, the Big East is loaded with "Bully" coaches - guys who cover the spread vs non-BCS teams the first month of the season since '03 (unless noted). They are: Edsall (UConn .714), Schiano (Rutgers .714), Robinson (Syr .750, '05), and Kelly @ Cincy showed real potential in his first year going 3-0 ATS. No other conference does better. And Wanny @ Pitt is 2-1 since '05. All stats are based on Don Best closing lines.

 

[rolltide]

btw, sooner, i think your preview of pitt is way way off. Of course there is nothing too exciting about Wannstache but the fact is he has now had 4 years of recruiting under his belt, so this is the true test. It is impossible to have a solid running system with Walt Harris' players as the styles were so different.
As far as last year Pitt had the 3rd most games lost to injured starters of any team in the nation. And they were huge losses like starting QB, starting WR (one of 3 best in conference), best defensive tackle, and several Olineman. The only real question mark this year is how well can they replace Otah and McGlynn on the Oline...and they have the talent to do it.
They really are loaded at WR, TE, and RB and have a great defensive line (best in conference) and terrific LB's. The secondary is decent and special teams is as good, or better, than any Big East team.

Their schedule is ok and unless they get beat on the road by Navy or Notre Dame they will win 7-9 games before the bowl. I would not be surprised to see them win the conference as USF may be a tad overrated and WVU is not as good as last year, but I still think both of them are a step above Pitt.

 

[GoSooners]

btw, sooner, i think your preview of pitt is way way off. Of course there is nothing too exciting about Wannstache but the fact is he has now had 4 years of recruiting under his belt, so this is the true test. It is impossible to have a solid running system with Walt Harris' players as the styles were so different.
As far as last year Pitt had the 3rd most games lost to injured starters of any team in the nation. And they were huge losses like starting QB, starting WR (one of 3 best in conference), best defensive tackle, and several Olineman. The only real question mark this year is how well can they replace Otah and McGlynn on the Oline...and they have the talent to do it.
They really are loaded at WR, TE, and RB and have a great defensive line (best in conference) and terrific LB's. The secondary is decent and special teams is as good, or better, than any Big East team.

Their schedule is ok and unless they get beat on the road by Navy or Notre Dame they will win 7-9 games before the bowl. I would not be surprised to see them win the conference as USF may be a tad overrated and WVU is not as good as last year, but I still think both of them are a step above Pitt.

Many people are hesitant to pick Pittsburg high because of their head coach..They just don't trust Wannstadt. You would think with his creditionals both in the college and the pro ranks that he would be an excellent coach..But up to now he hasn't showed it..If it was like you said and strictly the injuries that held this team back last season, then I would tend to agree with you..But I think another thing that is holding this team back is their OC Matt Cavanaugh..I just don't think this dude was a good hire. His previous coaching position was OC for the Baltimore Ravens..One of the least producive offensive teams in the NFL. I do expect Pitt to remain strong defensively. So again, we could be getting alot of unders this season. With WV possibly being down a bit, and with a fairly favorable schedule, this could be Pitt's year..The question is, can they do it with just defense. And how much do you trust Wanny? If Pitt can go 4-0 before facing USF on the road, then I think they have a chance..If they beat USF, then they're in the catbirds seat to win the BE. But I'm just one of those people who has to see it happen first before I become a believer.

 

[rolltide]

you're spot on with the Cavanaugh comment. It was Wannstache hiring a buddy who had proven nothing in the NFL other than all of his offenses were awful. On the positive it helps with recruiting because both DW and MC are known more for their NFL coaching careers and kids love to go somewhere they feel will get them to the league. And, MC has his Pitt title ring to prove that this program used to be pretty damn good.

as a Pitt season ticket holder I guess I need to see it happen before I become a believer too. But I recognize the pieces are in place and, assuming they don't get every key player injured again this year, I can't see them winning less than 8. I don't see another BE team this loaded at the skill positions so this season probably rides on how Stull performs at QB and how quickly the new 3rd down QB threat, Cross, can get involved in the offense. I have no concerns about the defense, RB's, WR's, TE's...and really don't have a concern about Stull. If the O-Line does well they'll be in a big bowl...if not, then they'll be playing in Toronto against Central Michigan

 

[jayrocker26]

My VERY Early Take on Rutgers in 2008

After taking the world by storm with an 11-2 mark in 2006, Rutgers took a step back in 2007. With the exception of Maryland, an extremely easy out-of-conference schedule aided the Scarlet Knights to an 8-5 record. Give Rutgers credit for knocking off then #2 and 6-0 South Florida as well as beating the living piss out of every inferior team on their schedule. It wasn't a lack of effort that led to the Scarlet Knights' disappointing 3-4 conference record, but simply the loss of the 'element of surprise' they had on teams in 2006, the loss of the underdog role they were given with each week, all mixed with flat out bad luck and injuries.

QB Mike Teel's thumb was injured in Week 3 and clearly hampered his play throughout most of the season, culminating with his forced withdrawal from the Pittsburgh game during the 2nd and 3rd Quarters, a game that under no circumstance Rutgers could lose. After struggling to even gain a yard under backup QB Jabu Lovelace, Teel was reinserted and completed a huge pass to Tiquan Underwood to set up the Field Goal that ended up winning Rutgers the game (put the Knights up 20-16, forcing Pittsburgh to throw on 4th down inside the Rutgers 10 instead of kicking a FG with only seconds to play). A few weeks off awaiting the January bowl game against Ball State finally gave Teel the time necessary to heal his injured thumb, and the fireworks that went on display in Rutgers' 52-30 'score-looked-closer-than-it-really-was' blowout showed what Teel could do when healthy. I don't care how bad the Ball State defense was, if you watch that game again it wouldn't of matter if it was Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams playing CB, Teel was flat out on fire. That hot streak has since continued and was evident in the 2008 Rutgers Spring Game. Although a flawless spring game against limited blitzes and vanilla defenses should be about the norm for an about-to-be 3 1/2 year starting QB, Teel looked completely in control, and WR's Tiquan Underwood and Kenny Britt looked as good as ever.

Along the OL, Rutgers will have only 2 new starters in some sense as projected starters LT Anthony Davis (Freshman All-Freshman at OG last year), LG Kevin Haslam, and C Ryan Blaszcyzk all have starting experience. RG Caleb Ruch was highly touted out of high school, and RT Mike Gilmartin is a 5th year senior. Thus, it appears that the OL should be fine barring any injuries. Also look for True Freshman OT Art Forst, one of the Top 5 players from NJ this year to work his way into the mix.

The main question everyone has for Rutgers this year is how to replace departed RB Ray Rice. Nobody can replace Ray Rice, but RB's Mason Robinson, Kordell Young, and Jourdan Brooks together should be able to shoulder the load. Robinson is a sprinter that has added strength and more size in off-season, and has the lead in the race. Young, who in his limited action in 2006 and 2007 looked like a RB that could start for over half of the country, was lost in Week 3 last season to a knee injury and hasn't seen the field since. He'll be back in August. Brooks is a converted LB and FB, and is in the Brandon Jacobs mold.

In short, I feel offensively it will be the pass setting up the run, and Rutgers should put up a ton of points on a lot of people. They have playmakers all over the field on offense, and in the upcoming years we will begin to see some of the great recruits Schiano has brought in over the past 2 years begin to see the field.

I don't think the offense will hold them back, barring any significant injuries at QB or along the OL.

My questions remain about the defense. With starting twin CB's Jason and Devin McCourty both returning, as well as NFL-bound FS Courtney Greene, the Scarlet Knights will have a combined 9 years of starting experience making up 3/4 of their secondary once the season rolls around. Add to the mix Senior SS Glen Lee and hard-hitting highly-touted Sophomore SS Joe Lefeged, and the secondary should hold its own back there.

The questions remain for an undersized DL and an often injured LB corps. Don't let the numbers fool you, it was the Rutgers defense that held this team back last year. 3 out of the 5 losses in 2007 can be blamed on the defense alone (they blew a 35-17 lead in the 4th Quarter at Louisville for crying out loud). Although they did win the Pittsburgh game by themselves, the 2007 Rutgers defense left a lot to be desired. They played big in big spots as seen in the Pittsburgh and South Florida games, but were also trampled by Maryland, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Louisville. It will be the defense, not the offense that will be the guiding force as to whether Rutgers has another 7-6 type season, or an 11-2 one.

Mixed with that is a brutal schedule when compared to last year's that includes games against up-and-comers Fresno State and North Carolina to start off the year. Road games at West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida, and Pittsburgh will be tough, and Rutgers will have earned it if they are able to escape 2008 with a 9-4 record.

The unbelievable recruiting commitments over the past year and a half will not be evident in 2008, but it will only be a few more years down the road until Rutgers cracks the Top 10 with a vengeance once again.

 

[groundhog11]

sooners.....i agree with your thread on wvu......i look for them to beat aub at home.....lose to colo on the road.....

wvu will have to outscore opp to win this year until the defense catches up.....although it says only 4 starters return on D, 3 of them were going to start last year except they got into trouble.....Linebackers will be better but the secondary looks to be the trouble spot.....charles pugh would have most likely been 2nd string as he cant give up getting personal fouls.....

one game i do like is taking e carolina + the points against wvu.....away game, heat, and they seem to struggle or play bad every time they go down there....plus rival marshall is on deck as they may go vanilla as to not show anything with a tweaked offense.....

as of now it looks like it will be the wvu/sfla winner to the bcs.....it will be a cold night in morgantown when they meet Dec.6....

 

[SoonerBS]

Thanks for all the input, guys, this really helps me a lot and hopefully it does others as well . . . . .

 

[SoonerBS]

Bumping for guys that are starting to wake up and realize that football season is nearly here and they haven't capped a lick yet . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

BS...You are the Phil Steele of the RX...When does your new magazine come out? :nohead:

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...You are the Phil Steele of the RX...When does your new magazine come out? :nohead:

It's amazing how smart you can look before the season starts and no games have been played yet . . . . .