Big-12 Predictions (record included)

NFLpredictor · Aug 6, 2014

Baylor is certainly here to stay and proved last year that they were no fly by night program. They have one of the best QBs in the country and that alone makes them very dangerous in the conference. Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and the others are going to have to deal with the Baylor Bears in 2014. Best O/U bets according to BOVADA odds: Oklahoma (under), Oklahoma St. (over), Iowa St. (over) and West Virginia (under).

Big 12 Conference	Predicted 2014 Record	2013 Record
Baylor	10-2	11-2
Oklahoma	9-3	11-2
Oklahoma St.	9-3	10-3
Kansas St.	8-4	8-5
Texas	7-5	8-5
TCU	7-5	4-8
Iowa St.	7-5	3-9
Texas Tech	6-6	8-5
Kansas	2-10	3-9
West Virginia	2-10	4-8

GoSooners · Aug 6, 2014

You've probably got Okie Lite too high. OSU won't be as good as last year. This isn't a season where OSU can lose almost all of their starters and simply reload and surprise like they did a few years ago with just 8 returning starters. They won't have a Brandon Weedon/Justin Blackmon to bail them out this time around. One of the dead-giveaways that all is not the same in Stillwater this time is the number of spots Gundy is replacing with JC players because he simply has too much youth that he's dealing with, and not enough experienced talent to go around to fill all of the positions. Bill Snyder is the only coach in the country who can work these kinds of miracles with JC talent. But even he has to go out on the recruiting trail to find blue chip HS recruits to fill out his roster. Gundy doesn't have that kind of experience with JC's. I promise you this year isn't going to be business as usual for the Pokes. As for the rest of the conference, I think you are pretty near the money with your predictions. OU and Baylor can go either way depending on which team stays healthier and maybe catches a couple more lucky breaks. It's pretty close either way. It also wouldn't surprise me if they both shared the Big 12 crown. I think you are right about West Virginia. I don't see them as having quite that bad of a record. But my feeling is they won't exceed 4 wins and Holgersen will be out after this season.

NFLpredictor · Aug 6, 2014

GoSooners said:
You've probably got Okie Lite too high. OSU won't be as good as last year. This isn't a season where OSU can lose almost all of their starters and simply reload and surprise like they did a few years ago with just 8 returning starters. They won't have a Brandon Weedon/Justin Blackmon to bail them out this time around. One of the dead-giveaways that all is not the same in Stillwater this time is the number of spots Gundy is replacing with JC players because he simply has too much youth that he's dealing with, and not enough experienced talent to go around to fill all of the positions. Bill Snyder is the only coach in the country who can work these kinds of miracles with JC talent. But even he has to go out on the recruiting trail to find blue chip HS recruits to fill out his roster. Gundy doesn't have that kind of experience with JC's. I promise you this year isn't going to be business as usual for the Pokes. As for the rest of the conference, I think you are pretty near the money with your predictions. OU and Baylor can go either way depending on which team stays healthier and maybe catches a couple more lucky breaks. It's pretty close either way. It also wouldn't surprise me if they both shared the Big 12 crown. I think you are right about West Virginia. I don't see them as having quite that bad of a record. But my feeling is they won't exceed 4 wins and Holgersen will be out after this season.

Interesting take on Oklahoma St. I won't hold your screen name against you. It should be said that these records come from a formula that has withstood the test of the time. What it does is eliminate many of the outside factors that lead to a misjudgment on teams. Personal bias, fan dome, media reports, hype, etc. are all alleviated from the record predictions. It allows for bold predictions to be made and many times the totally unexpected happens like Auburn's 2013 season. I do like the interesting angle your presented though. It's one for people to think of.

GoSooners · Aug 8, 2014

NFLpredictor said:
Interesting take on Oklahoma St. I won't hold your screen name against you. It should be said that these records come from a formula that has withstood the test of the time. What it does is eliminate many of the outside factors that lead to a misjudgment on teams. Personal bias, fan dome, media reports, hype, etc. are all alleviated from the record predictions. It allows for bold predictions to be made and many times the totally unexpected happens like Auburn's 2013 season. I do like the interesting angle your presented though. It's one for people to think of.

This really isn't that interesting of a take. The fact is OSU is hurting this year. They have only 38 lettermen returning. That's probably the lowest number in the country other than Ohio State. But OSU is no Ohio State. The worst part is they lose almost all of their 5 year seniors that have been winners and the backbone of this team for years.. People are going to find out hard and fast at the betting windows that this isn't the same OSU team that simply and surprisingly reloads under Gundy. They will be better in the second half of the season when and if they come together as a team. They better, they have KSU, Texas, Baylor and OU as their last 4 games. With 3 out of 4 of those games on the road. Plus FSU. Still think they can win 9 games?

rolltide · Aug 8, 2014

furthering GS's thoughts on OSU, especially with the inexperience factor. from steele...

With that in mind, here are my 2014 experience rankings for the Big 12:

1. Oklahoma Sooners (national rank: No. 29)A major reason for the Sooners' high expectations this season is their 14 returning starters and the fact that they get 74 percent of their lettermen back (No. 29 in the country). The OU offense returns quarterback Trevor Knight, but it does lose the top two rushers and three of the top four receivers from a year ago. While the Sooners rank just No. 88 in offensive yards returning (52 percent), they make up for it with 107 career starts on the offensive line (No. 15).The defense returns nine starters, including its top three tacklers and eight of its top 10, good for No. 21 in the country with 78 percent of its total tackles back. The Sooners' experience coupled with an advantageous schedule (they will be favored in all 12 games) makes them one of my four picks for the first College Football Playoff.

2. TCU Horned Frogs (No. 37)After a misleading 4-8 season (four losses by three points or fewer), the Horned Frogs are my No. 1 most improved team this year thanks to the return of 16 starters (the most since their undefeated 2010 season). The offense does lose quarterback Casey Pachall, but returns its top two rushers, including dual threat Trevone Boykin and its top two receivers.The defense returns eight of its top nine tacklers and ranks No. 22 in the country with 78 percent of its tackles back. Keep in mind, suspended defensive end Devonte Fields missed most of last season (only four tackles), so losing him does not affect that total. Thanks to the experience of the Horned Frogs, I have them as an underdog in only three games (Oklahoma, at Baylor and at Texas), and they should at least double last year's four wins.

3. Kansas Jayhawks (No. 41)Kansas did show some improvement last year, going from one win to three and snapping a 27-game Big 12 losing streak. This year the Jayhawks return 17 starters, which is the most at KU in more than 20 years. At the time my magazine went to press in late May, they had 70 percent of their offensive yards coming back, which ranked No. 51 in the country. Now with the loss of quarterbackJake Heaps, running back Darrian Miller and wide receiver Andrew Turzilli, they drop to just 34 percent (No. 116). It should be noted that none of these players was a projected starter coming into 2014.The offense also welcomes in Miami (Ohio) transfer Nick Harwell, who has 3,166 career receiving yards, and the defense returns nine of its top 10 tacklers, led by two-time All-Big 12 linebacker Ben Heeney. Overall, the Jayhawks have 13 senior starters (tied for most in the Big 12), and on paper, this looks like head coach Charlie Weis' best team yet.

4. Texas Longhorns (No. 46)Similar to Kansas, the Longhorns have suffered some losses since my magazine went to press. However, only one of the five players dismissed was a projected starter (wide receiver Kendall Sanders), and it is unknown how long the suspensions will be for wide receiver Daje Johnson, offensive tackleDesmond Harrison and safety Josh Turner. Despite these losses, Texas still returns quarterback David Ash, its top two rushers and wide receiver Jaxon Shipley.The defense also returns six of its top eight tacklers, led by All-American defensive endCedric Reed, and the Longhorns still have my No. 2 linebacker corps. Overall, the dismissals and suspensions will hurt Texas' depth, especially at running back, but I still give UT a solid shot at topping last year's eight wins.

5. Iowa State Cyclones (No. 50)After making three bowls in four seasons, the Cyclones had just nine returning starters last year (No. 115 in experience) and slid back to 3-9. This year they are in much better shape in terms of experience as they return 10 starters on the offensive side of the ball, including 82 percent of their offensive yards (No. 18). The O-line also has 87 career starts, second most in the Big 12.The Cyclones did suffer some key losses on defense, including their top two tacklers, as their 43 percent total tackles returning ranks No. 123. Head coach Paul Rhoads usually gets the most out of his teams, but ISU will be challenged by my No. 6 toughest schedule.

6. West Virginia Mountaineers (No. 54)Last year the Mountaineers ranked last in the Big 12 in returning experience (No. 124 in the country) as they suffered their worst season since 2001 (4-8). This year they return 13 starters and 78 percent of their lettermen (No. 11 in the country). The offense returns its top two quarterbacks and its top three receivers, while the defense returns eight of its top 11 tacklers.While this is clearly a much better and more experienced team than 2013's version, the Mountaineers do play my fourth-toughest schedule and could be an underdog in as many as nine games.

7. Kansas State Wildcats (No. 58)After a tough 2-4 start to last season, the Wildcats won six of their last seven games, highlighted by a 31-14 thumping of Michigan in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. While this year's team returns just 11 starters, most of them are key players, including quarterback Jake Waters and All-Americans Tyler Lockett at wide receiver and Ryan Mueller at defensive end.Overall, the Wildcats return just 60 percent of their lettermen (No. 119), but no head coach in the country replaces talent via the junior college route (see: DT Terrell Clinkscales and MLB D'Vonta Derricott) better than Bill Snyder.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (No. 63)The Red Raiders had a topsy-turvy 2013 season that saw them start 7-0 before suffering five straight losses. They got redemption in the Holiday Bowl upset over Arizona State, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury has 13 returning starters to work with in 2014, including nine on offense, led by quarterbackDavis Webb. The offense also returns its top two rushers, and while the top two receivers are gone, six of the top eight return.The defense does lose three of its top four tacklers, which helps explain its No. 108 ranking in tackle percentage returning, but overall, the Red Raiders look well-positioned to make their 14th bowl in the past 15 years.

9. Baylor Bears (No. 81)Last year Baylor had one of its best seasons in school history, notching 11 wins and a Big 12 championship. But this year the Bears return just 10 starters. Fortunately one of them is quarterback Bryce Petty, who had 4,409 total yards last year. The offense also returns running back Shock Linwood(881 rush yards) and leading receiver Antwan Goodley (1,339 receiving yards), and BU's 79 percent of returning offensive yards ranks No. 27.The defense does lose its top two tacklers and returns just 50 percent of its total tackles (No. 112). However, head coach Art Briles continues to exceed my preseason expectations, and the Bears are poised for their third double-digit win season in the past four years.

10. Oklahoma State Cowboys (No. 128)Head coach Mike Gundy has done a tremendous job getting the Cowboys to double-digit wins in three of the past four years, but they face a daunting challenge this year. Overall, OSU has just eight returning starters and lost 32 lettermen from last year's team (most in the country). The offense does return its leading rusher in Desmond Roland, but loses its quarterback and top two receivers.The defense was hit even harder with the loss of eight of its top nine tacklers and returns just 35 percent of its total tackles (No. 127 out of 128). On the bright side, OSU ranked dead last in returning experience in 2010 and still managed an 11-2 record.

GoSooners · Aug 8, 2014

I don't see OSU going 9-3. But I also don't think they will be the 5-7 train wreck that ESPN thinks they will. They have too good of a coaching staff to let things get away from them. I look for around a 7-5 season. The player to watch is QB JW Walsh. He is a high percentage completion QB, but doesn't have a big arm. And he also loses almost all of his receivers from last year. So OSU in all likelihood isn't going to be a big play team. Part of their problem last year. If Walsh starts struggling, Gundy has a tendency to start tinkering with his QB's. If he pulls him, I think the Pokes could be in for a long and very erratic season.

onetwo2313 · Aug 8, 2014

GoSooners said:
I don't see OSU going 9-3. But I also don't think they will be the 5-7 train wreck that ESPN thinks they will. They have too good of a coaching staff to let things get away from them. I look for around a 7-5 season. The player to watch is QB JW Walsh. He is a high percentage completion QB, but doesn't have a big arm. And he also loses almost all of his receivers from last year. So OSU in all likelihood isn't going to be a big play team. Part of their problem last year. If Walsh starts struggling, Gundy has a tendency to start tinkering with his QB's. If he pulls him, I think the Pokes could be in for a long and very erratic season.

Good stuff. Look forward to fading Okie st (grew up in the midwest, so OSU for me will always be Ohio State) this year.