Big 12 Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

Big 12 South

Oklahoma

Despite losing some key defensive players and Malcolm Kelly on offense, Oklahoma actually looks like they could be better this year than last. The offense is solid with everyone returning on the offensive line nearly two deep. Bradford returns at QB after a stellar freshman year in which he set records at this position. If the "sophomore jinx" doesn't set in, he could actually contend for the Heisman Trophy this season. His two "throw to" players will be the TE, Gresham and WR, Iglesias. The RB corps is great with DeMarco Murray starting and Chris Brown alternating at the position. Defensively, look for Ryan Reynolds to have a great year at LB and probably leading the team in tackles. The DT position has been deep for the past several years and will be again this year with Granger and McCoy leading the starting rotation (Venerables loves to rotate defensive players to keep them fresh). If Auston English is, and stays, 100% healthy this season, he could grab a lot of national attention this year. Without a doubt he will be making the opposing QBs very nervous. For me, the real questionable area of the team this season will be the defensive backfield. They lose three starters at this position, and even though they will be plugging in some experienced players, I'm still going to be holding my breath everytime the opposing team throws a pass downfield. I concur with the preseason publications in placing Oklahoma in the top 5 of the nation with a chance for another National Championship. In order to make it happen though, Stoops is going to have to relearn how to win BCS games.

-- Oklahoma vs. Cincinnati September 6th -- Cincinnati has been a very respectable team the last two years and I have won money on them playing the ATS line and the UNDER. However, this looks to be a rebuilding year as they lose their QB, RB, and several offensive linemen. Even though they lose 5 starters off their defense from last season, they still look to be pretty solid this year. I love fading QBs in their first road start of the season. I'm not real sure who the starting QB will be for Cincy, but I'd venture to say he has not seen anything like the aggressive defense OU will likely throw at him at Norman. My prediction: Oklahoma wins 45-10.

-- Oklahoma vs. TCU September September 27th -- There are still players, coaches and a horde of Sooner fans that remember what TCU did 3 years ago on their last visit to Norman. TCU upset the then #7 Sooners with a good spanking and made them like it. TCU should have another fairly solid defense this season, but I was not at all impressed with their offense last year and it doesn't change much this year. The week before this game, TCU will have a tough road test against SMU. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has a bye-week to get ready for this revenge spot. My prediction: Oklahoma wins this one 38-7.

-- Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech November 22nd -- Last year Bradford got his bell rung and Oklahoma looked lost for 3 quarters. They started making a comeback toward the end, but it was too late. Oklahoma usually dominates Tech in Norman. With the added revenge factor in this game, I look for Oklahoma to win going away. I expect a little better gameplan this season with Oklahoma having a bye-week prior to this spot. My prediction: Oklahoma wins 49-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Texas Tech

With Texas Tech bringing back 18 starters and 61 lettermen back off a team that went 9-4 last year, this looks to be Leach's best team in several years -- and he's had some good ones. Tech was 47th in the nation defensively and 2nd in nation offensively in 2007. That's impressive. Tech is a "play-on" team because Leach loves to score as many points as he can. If there is a weak spot on this team it is most likely the defensive backfield. But it will not be so weak to be a concern.

-- Texas Tech vs. Nebraska October 11th -- Not only is this Tech's homecoming game, it is also the 1st road game for the new starting Nebraska QB, Ganz. Tech fans can be brutal to opposing teams and this is a tough road game for Nebraska following a game with Missouri the week before. My prediction: Tech wins 63-14.

-- Texas Tech vs. Texas November 1st -- Tech hasn't beat Texas in 6 years. This looks to be the best chance Tech has had in all this time. Tech is usually a strong finisher in the later part of their seasons. I think Tech will get it done this year in Lubbock. My prediction: Tech wins 49-35.

-- Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State November 8th -- Oklahoma state almost always has trouble with Leach's offenses whether they play on the road or at home. OSU has been very fortunate to win their last 3 home games against Tech, but they haven't beat Tech in Lubbock since 1944. I expect Oklahoma State to have had some good success by the time this game rolls around so expect the line to be less than a TD. My prediction: Tech wins 45-35.

-- Texas Tech vs. Baylor November 29th -- Last game of the regular season at home. Tech has won the last 12 straight in this series by an average of 30 points. After coming off what I expect to be a loss to Oklahoma before this game, Tech should be looking to vent some frustration. My prediction: Tech wins 63-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Texas

It's interesting to see the early publications leave Texas out of their top 10. Texas lost a good RB, some WRs, and 8 defensive starters. So, this warrants dropping Texas into the next ten? Does anybody realize what Texas has recruited and can recruit every year? Do people think they have nothing to plug into what has left? Texas never rebuilds, they always reload. The only reason behind dropping Texas a bit is because some of the other teams in the Big 12 South have got better and more competitive. Texas went 10-3 last season and I can't wait to see the O/U number on their total wins because I think they will actually have a BETTER record this year. Texas is going to be 5-0 going into the Oklahoma game and that game can always go either way. Then they get Missouri and Oklahoma State at home before they play Tech at Lubbock. They then go to Kansas before finishing with Texas A&M. I think Texas will beat Missouri and Kansas which only leaves them with what I think will be two possible losses in regular season -- Oklahoma and Texas Tech. I think publications are fading Texas this year based on McCoy's performance last season. Listen to me: McCoy's performance was due to having the best offensive line in the nation during the 2006 season and dropping off drastically in 2007. I expect the offensive line to be much better this year which will not only make McCoy more productive, but it will be a big plus to whoever they plug in at RB. As far as the defense is concerned, again, they are plugging in some talented players to the positions lost. Also, with the addition of Muschamp as the DC, I expect them to be much better this year.

-- Texas vs. Arkansas September 13th -- This will be the 3rd game in Texas' schedule. They will have both a home game and a road game under their belts. Things ought to start coming together and meshing by this game and it will stand to be a rude awakening for a sorry Arkansas team's first road test of the season. My prediction: Texas wins 35-10.

-- Texas vs. Rice September 20th -- This one is easy - Texas just loves kicking the hell out of little sister! They have won the last 5 by an average of 39 ppg. Coming off what should an easy victory against Arkansas and looking at a bye-week on deck, Texas should unload. My prediction: Texas wins 52-14.

-- Texas vs. Texas A&M November 27th -- This could be the best "play-on" game in the Big 12 this season! Texas has embarassingly lost the last two years to A&M which is a huge sore spot to Longhorn players, coaches and fans. This season Texas A&M looks to have one of their worse teams in years. Texas gets this season ending game at home and will unload 3 years worth of frustration here. My prediction: Texas wins 49-7.

 

[SoonerBS]

Oklahoma State

Mike Gundy is in his 4th year as head coach and is maybe looking at his best team ever. One of the things I have always respected about Gundy is that he is not afraid to get rid of the trouble elements off his team, and he is not afraid to play his best players. This has resulted in a more stable team and a sounder system. Gundy also takes care of his assistant coaches as they are among some of the highest paid in the Big 12 (it also helps to have Boone Pickens shoveling millions of dollars into the athletic program.) OSU sustained some losses last year with the star RB, Savage leaving for the NFL and their famed offensive coordinator, Larry Fedora, taking on HC duties at Southern Mississippi. However, they bring back their starting QB, Zach Robinson, and their entire offensive line. They have plugged the holes at RB and on the defensive side of the ball with some impressive JUCO players. While it will likely take a few games for the JUCOs to get adjusted to NCAA speed, I think they are going to be a nice fit on Gundy's team.

-- Oklahoma State vs. Houston September 6th -- Two years ago, Houston hosted this match-up and won a narrow victory in a "back and forth" type game. Houston will be decent this year, but Oklahoma State will be better. Add in the factors of the home crowd and the rookie Houston QB making his first road start and we have a great situation for an Oklahoma State win and cover. My prediction: OSU wins 38-14.

-- Oklahoma State vs. Troy September 27th -- Wow, what a situation! Troy upset the Cowboys at their place last year setting up this ultimate opportunity for revenge in Stillwater. To help the situation come into fruition, Troy is down a notch this year and OSU is up a notch, Oklahoma State will also have a bye-week prior to this game. Plus, this game is sandwiched for troy between Ohio State the week before and Florida Atlantic (a conference game) on deck. My prediction: OSU wins 45-21.

-- Oklahoma State vs. Oklahoma November 29th -- Oklahoma has won 5 straight after losing back to back games under Miles' years. Oklahoma won this game in Norman by a margin of 32 points. However, the Cowboys almost ALWAYS play Oklahoma close in Stillwater. Oklahoma will come in here road favorites. My prediction: Oklahoma wins 28-24.

 

[SoonerBS]

Texas A&M

With only 10 returning starters, a new, inexperienced offensive line, a coaching change, a new (but some experience) defensive line, and a new offensive scheme that doesn't fit this team at all, Texas A&M will be near the bottom of the Big 12 this year. This team will likely start out getting more respect than they deserve. They may win their first game against Arkansas St, but then they are going to be "fade city" on the road against New Mexico. Their new coach, Mike Sherman, is moving this team to a "pro style" offense. That will mean that option QB, McGee, will have to pass the ball more. That's bad news because the last two years, whenever he would pass, he couldn't hit the broad side of the barn. I can't bet on a team that will be breaking in both an offensive and defensive line. This team needs to be faded a lot this season.

 

[SoonerBS]

Baylor

Baylor returns 15 starters and 49 lettermen off a team that went 3-9 last season. After the season last year, Guy Morris, the Bears coach for 5 years, was let go and Art Briles, the former coach of Houston, was hired. I think it might end up being a good hire for Baylor. Briles has proven to be a good coach at taking lesser talented teams and making them successful (albeit he has done it in a much more inferior conference than the Big 12.) Baylor should be a bit better than last season, but I still only see 3 wins on their schedule. While I don't see any definite play-on games with lowly Baylor, I'll keep my eye on the lines in the Oklahoma (could be a look-ahead spot here for Oklahoma playing Texas the next week), Iowa State and Texas A&M games.

 

[SoonerBS]

Big 12 North

Missouri

Missouri had some losses in personnel but replaces them well this season without much concern for missing a beat. The only true question I have about this team is their depth. As long as everybody remains healthy, Missouri will likely repeat their success from last year. In fact, they might even manage to win a Big 12 championship if a little luck goes their way.

-- Missouri vs. Nevada September 13th -- After playing Texas Tech at home the week before this game in which they will likely lose, Nevada has to travel on the road to Columbus, Missouri to play another top 10 team B2B. (Yes, I'm putting Texas Tech in the Top 10). There will be no time to breath and this will be Nevada's first road game of the season. I look for Nevada to be a play-on team within the WAC conference this season, but they will get beat bad this game. My prediction: Missouri wins 55-10.

-- Missouri vs. Buffalo September 20 -- I know Buffalo is getting better, but they are still a MAC team playing a top 10 team in the nation. If this line is -32 or less, it's time to play-on Missouri. For Buffalo, this game is sandwiched between a couple of conference games. Missouri has a bye-week on deck. My prediction: Missouri wins 49-10.

-- Missouri vs. Kansas State November 8th -- This game is sandwiched between Kansas and Nebraska for K-State and Missouri plays at Baylor the week before and at Iowa State the next. I think K-State will be an improved team this season, but I think the spot favors Missouri here. My prediction: Missouri wins 32-10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Forgot to add this part:

I have been researching all the teams in the respective conferences since Spring Practice began. I've decided to put my findings and opinions on teams -- whether good or bad -- in a conference by conference list of "play-on games." This will not only give you an idea of what I think about some of these teams, but it will also give you some games to be looking forward to playing.

Now, understand that this info is still very early and could change according to injuries, transfers, suspensions, and etc. I am also still watching the developments of some teams to see if they get stronger and more harmonized in Fall camp. So, take these thoughts as the way it stands now.

 

[SoonerBS]

Nebraska

Nebraska is a team that is not just rebuilding, not just reloading, they are also recovering. From the first day they announced the hire of Bill Callahan I said it was a horrible hire. That was verified on several websites. It wasn't just because he didn't have the players to fit his system for the first 2 or 3 years because in season 4 last year, he proved he doesn't belong at any level as a head coach. I hated to see him pull down the tradition of the Cornhuskers, but he single-handedly did it. After firing Callahan, Nebraska finally hired the man they should have hired after prematurely firing Solich . . . Bo Pelini. Pelini schooled under Osborne and Solich and after Nebraska snubbed him in their first hire, he schooled under Bob Stoops and Les Miles. Pelini is a defensive coach and I think he will do very good at Lincoln if the school will give him some time. The only decision he has made so far that I haven't agreed with is his keeping Callahan's OC on staff -- Shawn Watson. But, with all the recruits made to fit this system, maybe he felt like he had to do it for a year or two. Nebraska returns only 11 starters from last year's 5-7 team. I personally don't believe Phil Steele is correct in putting Nebraska in his "Most Improved Team" category. He has them finishing 2nd in the Big 12 North and I have them finishing 5th behind K-State, Kansas and Colorado. I think they are a year or two away from returning to a bowl game.

-- Nebraska vs. Colorado November 28th -- I think there is a distinct possibility Nebraska could be a home dog in this game. If not, it will at least be a short line. This is the last game of the season and I expect Nebraska to make steady improvement through the year. Again, I don't think they will make it to a bowl, so they will want to at least win this home game to provide some momentum into 2009. My prediction: Nebraska wins 31-24.

 

[SoonerBS]

Kansas

Last season was not only surprising, but it was phenomenal. There is no doubt that scheduling was a big part of their 21-1 season, but their SU win over Virginia Tech showed that they were a legitimate Top 10 team. This season they return 15 starters and 42 lettermen back from that team. This season, however, their record will not be as good as 12-1. Several reasons will factor into this. First, their schedule is tougher this season. Not only do they play South Florida on the road in a non-conference game, but they also draw Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas from the South -- the three best teams in the conference. Secondly, they lost some key ingredients off last year's team. They lost their outstanding defensive coordinator , Bill Young, to Miami, FL. I also think they are going to miss DB, Talib who went to the NFL early. I personally think they are looking at 9-4 at the best this year.

-- Kansas vs. Florida International August 30th -- Kansas loves to smoke the dregs of the league. I don't care if FIU is bringing back several starters and lettermen, they sucked last year and they will suck this year. Kansas will destroy them! The only real question is, what kind of line will we get? Anything less than -40 is play on. My prediction: Kansas wins 59-10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Kansas State

This team intrigues me. They only return 12 starters from last season with 44 lettermen, but they plug the holes with several good JUCOs and transfers from other top notch schools. I have tried to fade this team several times the last two years and they have a way of biting me in the ass whenever I do. Last year they went 5-7 and I predict that this year they get 6 or 7 wins. Freeman has proven himself to be a top notch QB in this league and I expect to see him show a lot of leadership this year on this team. I'll admit, I don't like HC Ron Prince personally, I think he's a proven asshole. But, for some reason, he has made these guys pretty tough and competitive the last couple of years for what he had to work with.

-- K-State vs. North Texas August 30th -- North Texas was atrocious last season and losing 60% of their defensive production off last year's team will not bode well for them this year. There's also a possibility that true freshman, Riley Dodge will be making his first start collegiately. My prediction: K-State wins 52-7.

-- K-State vs. Louisiana-Lft September 27th -- This game will follow a Thursday night game the week before at Louisville. I don't know who will win that game to be honest with you, but I hope to have a better feel by the time that week gets here. Regardless of the outcome, I expect K-State to be all over this Sun Belt team at home. My prediction: K-State wins 38-10.

-- K-State vs. Iowa State November 22nd -- This game has a possibility of becoming a deciding game for Bowl eligibility. Iowa State beat them at Ames last season. It will be the last home game and I expect the K-State offense and defense to be clicking on all cylinders against an Iowa State team will likely struggle all season. My prediction: K-State wins 32-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Colorado

Dan Hawkins is in his 3rd year as the head coach of Colorado. His first year he had me surprised with the stoutness of his defense. Last season, along with defense, he showed that his team could be tenacious on both sides of the ball and capable of playing with anybody. This year, with his recruits starting to emerge, I'm expecting to see further improvement across the board. I think it was a testimony to his coaching abilities that he was able to get this team to a bowl game, and even though they didn't win, he gained the Nation's respect. Well, almost the nation's respect as Phil Steele has them picked next to the last in the Big 12 North. I don't buy it. I think with 14 starters and 41 lettermen coming back that Hawkins will be battling for that second or third place spot. His recruiting this past year was very respectable and I think we could see some freshmen making a contribution this season on this team.

-- Colorado vs. West Virginia September 18th -- Somebody kick me if I play on an away team in Thursday Night College Football this year on ESPN. The trend is too strong for the home team to cover. Plus, I'm planning to fade West Virginia in some games this season as I think they are overated this year. With several losses on defense, a key loss at RB and head coach, I don't think there is any way WVU should be ranked in the Top 10. They'll likely be favored coming into this game and I'm calling for the home doggie to win this straight up! My prediction: Colorado wins 31-28.

-- Colorado vs. Oklahoma State November 15th -- Both teams will have a bye-week following this game, but Colorado will be coming off a home game with Iowa State while road weary Oklahoma State will be coming off another road game at Texas Tech. Oklahoma State has been a good team to fade on the road regardless. My prediction: Colorado wins 35-32.

 

[SoonerBS]

Iowa State

Sometimes I come across teams that I just can't get a good read on. That's how I feel about Iowa State. They showed some heart last season beating Iowa, K-State, Colorado and playing Oklahoma close. But, if you are an Iowa State fan, you simply have to be disappointed in the 4 year unfulfilled hype of Meyer and Blythe. Every year was going to be the year they contended for the Big 12 North Championship and every year their fans were disappointed. Last season they were so depleted in returning starters that no one gave them a shot -- and it was justified. This year, the legacy of Blythe and Meyer is gone. With 14 starters coming back, 2nd year head coach Gene Chizik can start a new legacy with new players. Who those players will be and what legacy will be written . . . . . . . . I can't tell you. With only 27 lettermen returning the big question turns to depth and experience. Like I said at the beginning, I can't get a good read on them.

 

[bpoint]

SoonerBS:

Thanks for all the hard work. Great analysis and insight.

Was wondering what you thought about Texas Tech/SMU in week 3. Leach seems to like to run it up on those guys, and a close game @ Nevada in week two might keep the spread in the 20's. June Jones turn-around at Hawaii was immediate but I think he's got his work cut out for him here.

 

[SoonerBS]

SoonerBS:

Thanks for all the hard work. Great analysis and insight.

Was wondering what you thought about Texas Tech/SMU in week 3. Leach seems to like to run it up on those guys, and a close game @ Nevada in week two might keep the spread in the 20's. June Jones turn-around at Hawaii was immediate but I think he's got his work cut out for him here.

Personnel that Jones is inheriting is really not too bad. The thing about him taking over SMU is a little like what you get with Leach -- he's innovative and unafraid to open up the offense. So, it's difficult to know how that will affect the pointspread. I do think there is a good opportunity to play the OVER in that game, but I'll have a better feel for it by the time that week rolls around.

 

[GoSooners]

Kansas

Last season was not only surprising, but it was phenomenal. There is no doubt that scheduling was a big part of their 21-1 season, but their SU win over Virginia Tech showed that they were a legitimate Top 10 team. This season they return 15 starters and 42 lettermen back from that team. This season, however, their record will not be as good as 12-1. Several reasons will factor into this. First, their schedule is tougher this season. Not only do they play South Florida on the road in a non-conference game, but they also draw Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas from the South -- the three best teams in the conference. Secondly, they lost some key ingredients off last year's team. They lost their outstanding defensive coordinator , Bill Young, to Miami, FL. I also think they are going to miss DB, Talib who went to the NFL early. I personally think they are looking at 9-4 at the best this year.

-- Kansas vs. Florida International August 30th -- Kansas loves to smoke the dregs of the league. I don't care if FIU is bringing back several starters and lettermen, they sucked last year and they will suck this year. Kansas will destroy them! The only real question is, what kind of line will we get? Anything less than -40 is play on. My prediction: Kansas wins 59-10.

BS...I think another game where Kansas may be a "play on" is when they come to Norman to play OU...This is provided OU beats Texas..If they do then Kansas is going to be getting quite a few points going in..Probably at least 17-21 points. I look for Mangino to pull out all of the stops against the Sooners..And the Sooners will be coming off an emotional game against Texas..I know OU has traditionally played well after playing Texas..Like the Mizzou game last season after Texas...But in my opinion Kansas won't be rated as high or getting the respect that Mizzou did coming into Norman..If Kansas should lose their early game against USF, or possibly Colorado then I think they'll get a very good number against OU..Because of their tough schedule Kansas for the most part will be a fade this year..But I'm only fading them because the public will be on them as favorites..But as a dog I think the Jayhawks will be a very good play.

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...I think another game where Kansas may be a "play on" is when they come to Norman to play OU...This is provided OU beats Texas..If they do then Kansas is going to be getting quite a few points going in..Probably at least 17-21 points. I look for Mangino to pull out all of the stops against the Sooners..And the Sooners will be coming off an emotional game against Texas..I know OU has traditionally played well after playing Texas..Like the Mizzou game last season after Texas...But in my opinion Kansas won't be rated as high or getting the respect that Mizzou did coming into Norman..If Kansas should lose their early game against USF, or possibly Colorado then I think they'll get a very good number against OU..Because of their tough schedule Kansas for the most part will be a fade this year..But I'm only fading them because the public will be on them as favorites..But as a dog I think the Jayhawks will be a very good play.

I suppose you could be right. I didn't list the game because traditionally, Stoops has always dominated Mangino's Kansas teams. The pupil has never been able to better the mentor in this relationship.

That being said, I'll be looking at the lines of every game every week to see if something pops out. If Kansas is getting +17-+21, which I think is unlikely, I may be all over it.

:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

I suppose you could be right. I didn't list the game because traditionally, Stoops has always dominated Mangino's Kansas teams. The pupil has never been able to better the mentor in this relationship.

That being said, I'll be looking at the lines of every game every week to see if something pops out. If Kansas is getting +17-+21, which I think is unlikely, I may be all over it.

:toast:

BS...Keep in mind that a #11 ranked unbeaten Mizzou team was getting 12 points coming into Norman, and actually ended up covering the spread...It's not inconceivable that Kansas could be getting 17 coming in..Especially if they have a loss and OU is unbeaten..This is a much different Kansas team than the ones OU has played in the past..We really can't look back when going by these two teams history..The history with OSU is also the most one-sided in the country..But we definitely can't go by that when OU travels to Stoolwater..Something to keep in mind..Much of this play depends on the two teams records...The best possible scenerio that could happen if betting on Kansas is if they lose the week before to Colorado and OU kills Texas...I'm not really expecting either to happen..

 

[SoonerBS]

BS...Keep in mind that a #11 ranked unbeaten Mizzou team was getting 12 points coming into Norman, and actually ended up covering the spread...It's not inconceivable that Kansas could be getting 17 coming in..Especially if they have a loss and OU is unbeaten..This is a much different Kansas team than the ones OU has played in the past..We really can't look back when going by these two teams history..The history with OSU is also the most one-sided in the country..But we definitely can't go by that when OU travels to Stoolwater..Something to keep in mind..Much of this play depends on the two teams records...The best possible scenerio that could happen if betting on Kansas is if they lose the week before to Colorado and OU kills Texas...I'm not really expecting either to happen..

Good point . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

Kansas State

This team intrigues me. They only return 12 starters from last season with 44 lettermen, but they plug the holes with several good JUCOs and transfers from other top notch schools. I have tried to fade this team several times the last two years and they have a way of biting me in the ass whenever I do. Last year they went 5-7 and I predict that this year they get 6 or 7 wins. Freeman has proven himself to be a top notch QB in this league and I expect to see him show a lot of leadership this year on this team. I'll admit, I don't like HC Ron Prince personally, I think he's a proven asshole. But, for some reason, he has made these guys pretty tough and competitive the last couple of years for what he had to work with.

-- K-State vs. North Texas August 30th -- North Texas was atrocious last season and losing 60% of their defensive production off last year's team will not bode well for them this year. There's also a possibility that true freshman, Riley Dodge will be making his first start collegiately. My prediction: K-State wins 52-7.

-- K-State vs. Louisiana-Lft September 27th -- This game will follow a Thursday night game the week before at Louisville. I don't know who will win that game to be honest with you, but I hope to have a better feel by the time that week gets here. Regardless of the outcome, I expect K-State to be all over this Sun Belt team at home. My prediction: K-State wins 38-10.

-- K-State vs. Iowa State November 22nd -- This game has a possibility of becoming a deciding game for Bowl eligibility. Iowa State beat them at Ames last season. It will be the last home game and I expect the K-State offense and defense to be clicking on all cylinders against an Iowa State team will likely struggle all season. My prediction: K-State wins 32-14.

BS...I'm really having trouble getting a handle on KSU..I'm never sure what kind of team they are going to field year in and year out because of their heavy JC recruiting. And you never know how players like this are going to turn out when they get to the big schools...The big problem with heavy JC recuiting is once you start drafting your players this way, there's no turning back. Since you only have these kinds of players for 2 years, your program is always on a teeter totter of sorts strengthwise..What I hate about this is you never can judge teams like KSU by what they did the year before and who they have returning the next season...Snyder started all of this stuff..But even he didn't rob the JC ranks like Prince has..I just don't think it's a good idea to coach a team this way..Especially if your in a BCS conference.

Prince wants a quick fix to a complicated problem..His motto appears to be experience over talent. You don't build a program this way..Personally I think Prince's days at KSU are very limited..KSU fans have grown accustomed to a team that gets at least 9 wins every year..I don't believe we'll ever see this under Prince unless the chemistry is absolutely perfect. But QB Josh Freeman's best and arguably the greatest KSU receiver Jordy Nelson is now gone, and guess what, he's now got two JC transfers to throw to..How is this going to work out? Nobody knows. With a decent offensive line the offense might turn out okay..But the defense is another story.

It bothers me when a team starts the year out strong and then falters down the stretch. I think they gave Auburn a hard game last year more because Auburn didn't have their offense in place more than KSU themselves..And they beat Texas almost strictly with their special teams play..The one thing KSU had on those teams was JC expereince from the very start while Texas and Auburn were breaking in new talent..KSU lost this expereince edge as the season moved along and everybody around them got better..I'm sure Prince has spent long hours trying to figure out what went wrong last season. I think he's going to end up finding out that you just can't plug any JC player into a position and expect your problems to be solved..I like to see a player grow into a position from a freshman or a sophomore. Prince will expereince very little of this at KSU if he keeps doing things this way..It shouldn't be a surprise that the two best players on this team last season was Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson..Two players who didn't come from the JC ranks, but were thrown into the fire as freshman and actually learned their positions.

I'm going to hold off my judgement on the Cats until after I see them for a few games..But if I had an opinion about them right now i would say the best thing to do with this team is to play the overs until all of those JC's on defense get their feet under them..Then we'll go from there..