Big 10 Saturday

Matt24 · Feb 6, 2004

2004: 5-0

INDIANA -3.5

I just unloaded at Pinnacle, and I mean unloaded, I thought I got in early, but apparently they opened it at 2, I am guessing it moved right to 3.5, because it moved fast. Once again another boggling line. It seems that Vegas and the general public are not taking into account that Iowa has lost 3 of thier top 8 players and are down to 7 scholarship players. They have lost 2 big men and a small forward. Indiana has continued to be undervalued with the return of George Leach(6-1 ATS)(3-0 Assembly Hall).

Iowa has very little depth now with the loss of those 3 players and not much frontcourt depth, nor much talent(Glen Worley, but he is playing outside more it seems this year). They are small with Boyd, Pierce, and Horner, which sets up perfectly for IU. Only way Iowa stays in this game is if Boyd and Horner are on fire, and I don't think they will get too many open looks, as IU has a tremendous perimeter defense.

MICHIGAN

No #, as I havent bet it yet, as I think I can get 2 or 2.5 locally, instead of the 3 that Pinnacle is offering, I will find out tomorrow.

Michigan is an extremly talented team who doesnt seem to play together or hard at all times. It is pretty much do or die for them as Purdue comes into town. Purdue will probably be without Kenneth Lowe(thier best player), and remember they have already lost Chris Booker(Best post player) for the entire season. This isnt the same team that beat Duke. Austin Parkinson had 12 ass and 0 turnovers the other night, Daniel Horton will eat him alive tomorrow.

[This message was edited by Matt24 on February 07, 2004 at 01:23 AM.]

Matt24 · Feb 6, 2004

Michigan is now down to 2.5 at Pinnacle, and IU is now up to 4 so line moves are playing out nicely.

[This message was edited by Matt24 on February 06, 2004 at 08:33 PM.]

Matt24 · Feb 6, 2004

I actually made a mistake on the Iowa team, 4 of thier top 9 are out, as I thought the 4th player was a player who didnt play, but he was actually playing 15 mpg. 2 of Alfords recruits ended up academically inelgible and transferred this year. So these 4 players were accounting for around 75 mpg. 25+20+15+15, which is a huge thing to lose, and its nice to see it not even considered in this line. I think the line of this game should be 9, this line would be 4 if Iowa had all thier players.

Indiana RPI=59
Iowa RPI=100

[This message was edited by Matt24 on February 06, 2004 at 08:55 PM.]

blueedwards · Feb 6, 2004

matt, been following your plays. nice work so far.

wonderdog · Feb 6, 2004

Great Info Matt....I think the best of the IU bet is the first half. They have ben real solid in the first half of most games. Maybe 5 or 6 that they were not.

Matt24 · Feb 6, 2004

Very true. IU has been outscored like 14 of 19 games this year in the 2nd half. Coach Davis seems to go without his rotation in the 2nd half and I think that has hurt this team. In a few games this year, Pat Ewing Jr and Rod Wilmont have gotten all thier minutes in the first half, then only Sean Kline comes in in the 2nd half. Wright and Strickland are playing 37 mpg+ every night. Moye has just started getting more blows, but was playing a lot of minutes as well. They seem to get the same shots, but in the first half the 3s go down with ease.

Thanks blue. This IU game is the biggest bet I have ever made, so hopefully they do what they should do and that is win by 10 or more. I didnt really get into how bad Iowa's defense is, it seems everything sets up well for IU, Iowa is the perfect team for them to play.

IU now to 4.5 at Pinnacle. I can't believe they opened that at 2, I had to miss it by 5 minutes.

whormoan · Feb 7, 2004

I feel your pain, Matt. Lost with IU myself but had them on the $$$$ line

Matt24 · Feb 7, 2004

0-2 nice. Michigan blows a 16 point lead with 10 minutes left, real nice. Then IU sucks for just about the whole game besides a 12-0 run in a span of 2 minutes in the 2nd half.