Beyer / Smarty.

NickyDeuces · May 29, 2004

On the Fast Track To History

By Andrew Beyer , Washington Post.(condensed)

The skeptics are silenced. Knowledgeable fans are convinced. Rival trainers and jockeys are agog. All can jump on the Smarty Jones bandwagon now. His Preakness victory was one of the most convincing performances by a 3-year-old in years...

...It was difficult to assess Smarty Jones after his triumph at Churchill Downs because his running time was unimpressive and the sloppy, speed-favoring track may have aided him. There were no such ambiguities at Pimlico, and people who can recognize an exceptional thoroughbred knew they had seen the real thing. Patrick Biancone, who has trained high-class horses on three continents, hailed Smarty Jones as "a great champion." Veteran jockey Gary Stevens said, "That's as good as any horse I've ever seen," and mentioned the Preakness winner in the same breath as Secretariat...

..His effort earned him a tie for the second-best Beyer Speed Figure in a Triple Crown race since we began publishing these ratings in 1987. Easy Goer recorded a figure of 122 in the 1989 Belmont Stakes. Summer Squall and Silver Charm got ratings of 118 in the Preaknesses of 1990 and 1997, respectively. Smarty Jones's 118 puts him into some illustrious company...

...In the (Preakness) stretch, he unleashed a finishing kick that belied his reputation as a speed horse. Even though Rock Hard Ten was making a respectable move to launch a challenge, Smarty Jones ran away and left him for dead. "I had another gear left," said Stevens, the rider of the runner-up, "but Smarty Jones had four more."...

...Smarty Jones's superior talent does not ensure that he will complete the sweep at Belmont Park June 5. The 11/2-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes has foiled many great horses, and it could expose one potential vulnerability in Smarty Jones: his pedigree. He has overcome his sprint-oriented bloodlines so far, but he is not constituted to be an effective 11/2-mile runner...

PeteRoseJR · May 29, 2004

Has anyone heard what Steve Davidowitz is saying about Smarty?

wilheim · May 29, 2004

Steve Davidowitz has not come out with a Belmont column yet. His preakess column if anyone missed it;

Before a near monsoon hit Churchill Downs, it seemed reasonable to believe that the "most wide-open Kentucky Derby in years" would produce a wild and woolly race.

Instead, lukewarm betting favorite Smarty Jones chased down front-running Lion Heart, while most of the rest of the field was left in his wake.

Lion Heart sped through sharp fractional splits and put in a strong bid to win, but the race was over when the unbeaten "Smarty" responded instantly to jockey Stewart Elliott's command to go after Lion Heart in the run around the final bend.

Smarty Jones became the new folk hero of racing, drawing clear from Lion Heart while finishing just as fast as stretch-running Imperialism, who ran an adventurous third. Any horse who can chase down a fit, front-running rival and finish as well as the strongest stretch runners behind him is a hard horse to beat.

A wet-track wonder? Obviously, Smarty Jones relished the slick footing on Derby Day, but he also won the first five of his seven-race career on dry tracks in three states. He does not need to bring his racetrack with him to fire a top effort.

The same seems true for front-running Lion Heart, who again looms as the one to catch in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness, a race 110 yards shorter than the Derby. Barring unforeseen miscues or interference, the Preakness might develop into a replay of the Derby, even on a fast track.

Stretch-running Imperialism (No. 8) could upset, given the way jockey Kent Desormeaux had to check him and alter course to the extreme outside in his spirited late run in Louisville.

Deep-closing Borrego (No. 2) floundered in the wet footing after making a move on the turn, but he did finish second to Smarty Jones in two previous stakes and has worked sharply for this race.

The new shooters - Eddington (No. 9) and Rock Hard Ten (No. 10) - are promising, well-bred colts who are light on seasoning. Rock Hard Ten, in particular, flashed significant talent in the Santa Anita Derby and is a tempting upset candidate, but no horse has won the Preakness with only three previous starts.

Realistically, a good performance by either colt would be a strong sign for the Belmont.

Even 30-1 shot Song of the Sword (No. 5) never ran a bad race until the Derby and could crack the trifecta, while Bowie-based Water Cannon (No. 11), a winner of his past five outings over much weaker, might beat some of these.

But, on the bottom line, it is difficult to make a strong case for anything other than Smarty Jones (No. 7) running down Lion Heart (No. 1) again. Horses are not robots, but all other scenarios include hints of wishful thinking.

In the Derby, "Smarty" looked like Webster's definition of a professional racehorse. He made his own good trip and stepped up in class and distance without missing a beat. He deserves to be the favorite to repeat if not improve another notch in the Preakness, just as Funny Cide did last year.

For my usual $100 hypothetical play, I will use Smarty Jones as a win key in a handful of trifecta spreads accenting horses who could catch Lion Heart for second for a shot at a respectable payoff. (No. 4 The Cliff's Edge has been scratched due to a foot bruise.) The object is to respect the probable outcome and get lucky at the same time.

$2 trifecta ticket A: 7 in the win position; with 2, 8, 9, 10 in the second position; with 1, 2, 8, 9, 10 in third. (16 combos, $32)

$2 trifecta ticket B: 7; with 2, 8; with 1, 2, 8, 9, 10 (8 cominations, $16)

$1 trifecta ticket D: 7; with; 2, 8, 9,10; with all (32 combinations, $32)

$1 trifecta ticket E: 7; with 1; with 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 (six combinations, $6)

$1 trifecta ticket F: 1, 8; with 7; with; 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10 (12 combinations, $12)

Plus: $2 souvenir win ticket on Smarty Jones.

Total: $100.

Steve Davidowitz is a freelance columnist for the Daily Racing Form and the author of "Betting Thoroughbreds."

wil.

PeteRoseJR · May 29, 2004

thanks wil....his book is great.

NickyDeuces · May 29, 2004

Top Crown threats were derailed in the Belmont over the past 25 years, most coming vs. serious opposition. Don't see any real threat this go round. Much of the nation will be pulling for Smarty Saturday. I've seen the unbeatable horse get beat more than just a few times. Not this time.
Trivia: My bet broke down Holy Bull. A future star went on to win that race. No referencing, name the horse.