Beware...Trap Bet

[Beaks]

Hi-

I am new here, so I suppose many of you will discount my opinion, but here it is anyway and I feel very strongly about it.

If you bet on GB +5.5 you are falling right into the trap Vegas is setting for you. This line should be closer to 8 or 9 points.

There is no way the Packers will cover this spread, the Eagles are a better team that is well rested and has an enormous coaching advantage. Add that to homefield and GB coming off an emotional overtime win where they barely beat a terrible road team in their own house.

The line makers know that people are on the GB bandwagon big time and therefore have deflated the line down to 5.5 as to not lay as many points to all the suckers who bet on GB.

The Eagles will win by 7 or 8 and their trick will have worked, taking everyones money because they knew everyone would still bet on GB with a line that is 3 points lower than what it should be.

I would bet on the Birds, but if you don't feel comfortable you should pass, cause this line is off.

Good Luck,

Beaks

 

[absoluteuncertainty]

Point well taken, but can't help but wonder if you are just a homer with a name like beaks.

 

[Beaks]

I can understand your concern and the truth is I am a homer, but that doesn't change the fact that you will get killed taking GB and that this line is off.

 

[spinman2]

Beaks -

The line seems to be that low because of the running game of the Pack vs. the very questionable run defense of the Eagles ---

I would say this is a good line for the game. However, I will be doing a 6.5 point teaser in this one:

GB + 12 and over 35.5

 

[DENIRO]

i think the line is right on the money

vincent couldnt practice again
game time decision- doesnt look good

can you say lito "toast jr" sheppard

 

[Co-Captain]

here are some things to think about.

If you cant stop GB's runing game how do you expect to defend against Farve's play action passes. Because the run should be effective, it leaves him the ability to pick his shots. Now, with you top CB hurting and probably not play. How is it that Vincents replacement is going to be able to stop GB's top 3 receivers, as you know he will be picked on by Farve all day long. Is he good enough to cover these three short, long, and all day. Can Vincent do it all day , with his injuries.

Now, with your most effective Offensive weapon in Westbrook out. How is this Philly Off going to set up its plays. It will be alittle harder seeing as GB has already played them and surely will make adjustments to Westbrook being out.

You see for me, adjustments can be made when you have your personal to do it. But its alittle more difficult to do when your missing the key personals and now must depend on others to make them, in possible their biggest game of their careers. Talk about the pressure. GB can come in to this one less pressured and with Farve the commander, now more focused, unfortunately because of his personal tragedy, that makes him that much more dangerous. IMO. GL and Aloha CC.

 

[DENIRO]

CO CAP
i agree
in the first game farve had the damaged thumb and couldnt grip the ball. had 3 fumbles, and still gb dominated that game.

cap i dont know if im nuts but i think farve will be more loose and play a better game since grennbay is playing away this week
all the overwhelming pressure and coverage from the fans and about his fathers untimely death and ....
i think he goes to philly w/ a goodnight rest away from gb and gets really focused.just football

co cap you said the key word
playaction
if philly cant stop A green early, farve is going to burn them deep

 

[Co-Captain]

De Niro, the thought you had about Farve playing better because he is now away in this game, is a very insightful thought. Thinking about it, I can see how being away would make he get refocused on the game. Sometimes, when were among friends and family, all you hear is their constant support and best wishes, which is always a good thing to have. But in relation to this game and Farve, I can see as you do a way to get away from that seen as I can see how it can take your mind off of your job and back on your lost. So no your not nuts, your thinking, and that is always a good sign. Heres my addition to your shared thought.

I am now thinking that by being away, Farve will draw on his father for inspiration, guidence, and confidence. I see him in a hostile place away from all the support and comforts of GB, and whay does most people do when in situations like these. They draw on something to get them focused completely on this game. I think Brett uses the memory of his father to get him ready and completely focused as he did when he played the Raider.

Now everyone is banking on the fact that Farve is done because of the emotional hype has been played out or that it has ended. Well, I must disagree with that. Death is forever, and you got until the rest of your life to remind you on it. Who can say , no one can say when your past it except for the person themselves. Brett hasnt shown yet that it has in my eyes. And I seriously dont think anyone else should until he loses. The death of his father wasnt dedicated by just one game to get into the playoffs. BS, the rest of the season and getting to SB and winning it was what he dedicated to his fathers memory. So how can anyone think that he is done. No way my friend , he is not done until GB loses. He is on a mission and that makes him dangerous. When people do things for other people, especially those they love, most will make sure they excell as they would not want to let them down. I think that is what Brett is doing. Its way of showing his father, through his play that he has done a good job of raising his son. To much at stake personally for Farve to slip up.

What adds to this is the fact, that Farve doesnt have to carry to the whole load. In fact, if the run game is on, his share is just about 1/4 his responsibility. The run game 1/4, the Def 1/4, the pass game(rec catching the ball and getting open) 1/4, and Farve 1/4. Now this is just a very simplistic way of looking at this, and should not be used to make up your play. I just use it as a way to see the game played out in a way. With the injuries to the Eagles, it could play out perfectly. GL.

 

[oldmanTED]

Just a couple of additional reasons to consider Green Bay. Philadelphia lost LB Emmons and CB Vincent is still nowhere near 100% and may not play. Philadelphia has had difficulty stopping the run more and more as these key injuries have mounted. The Packers run first and then use play action. Without Emmons and possibly Vincent, the Eagle defense is extremely vulnerable to the Packer attack. Food for thought.

 

[brendanjack]

well put captain greenbay on offense is a 2 headed monster my only fear is brett aint on defense so there gonna really have to control the clock or they could be in for a long day

 

[Co-Captain]

Well, even if the Def doesnt stop the Eagle off down, which I see them not doing. It is though a big plus for GB not to have to deal with Westbrook.

But here is a little comfort for some of you guys who like to use past history as a way to make your decision on a play or maybe a way to give you comfort in your selection. Remember that outside of John Elway, I think the only other guy who has many many times, brought his team back to win games in the final moments is Brett Farve. So with the history and experience on the side of Brett and all his comeback successes, it should make you alittle more at ease. Gl

 

[GoGoBird]

GoGo says everyone buying the media and public hype on Packo.

 

[Co-Captain]

GoGo, maybe everyone, but I for one do not buy into the media or public hype. Sure I may be swayed somehow on a RESPECTED media sportsman, but by all means, I still need to do the work. I think , that you are just playing the opposite of the public, just because. To me that can work, but I dont feel its smart to thing to do, especially with situations occurring on both Philly and GB's sides.

 

[GoGoBird]

GoGo says CoCo if you think GoGo playing opposite of public for largest play of year your nutso.. Just making observation on the hype says GoGo.

 

[Co-Captain]

Ok fair enough GoGo. But in your thread, you only listed stats and an obvious type of answer to problems facing the Eagles as your way of backing your play. Can you give more in depth analysis of how exactly the Eagles are going to address their situational problems which favors the Pack.

If you are thinking that matchups arent anything to worry about GoGO than you are in for a shock. This is not college ball , where they spread the game out to all. This is the Pro's and they look for weaknesses and they exploit it to it is no longer an option to exploit. If Vincent cant play, you got a big problem at one corner who will be exploited by GB's three receivers all day long. Can you tell me this players stats or how he is going to succeed at doing this. Now if the run game is on , which I expect it will be, how more so is this CB left on an island alone going to succeed. With such a nasty ground game that GB has, how is the Eagles going to effectively help out this corner, but still be able to have enough in the box to stop the run game. That is why matchups are important , especially at the line of scrimmage and at the CB positions.

 

[GoGoBird]

GoGo says his pick was made on Monday..GoGo learned of stats mentioned in his thread only today. GoGo disagree w/CoCo regarding matchups. GoGo thinks Matchup problems play larger role in College not Pro's. Thats one reason why more blowouts in College than Pro's.
Pro game much more about emotion, energy and
coaching all 3 of which favor Eagles says GoGo.
CoCo good luck w/your wager but I hope you congratulate me Sunday night when I'm smoking some HoHo's

 

[cfbguy]

lets be honest here. the packers are here because of a incredibly lucky nate poole td pass that knocked the vikings out. GB still played the pits of the AFC west in SD and oakland and beat a seattle team KNOWN for playing horribly on the road. im a favre fan and i feel badly his pop died. im sure his team rallyed to his side. but this is a rested eagle team whos home and reid is great at motivating his team the eagles have as many weapons as gb does.add the motivation of not wanting to get knocked out of the playoffs by a fortunate wildc ard team and im sprouting wings here.

philly rolls.~6killer

 

[oldmanTED]

Keep in mind the Packers don't have to win they just have to cover. For what it's worth, in my opinion when the opening number came out around 4, that was about right. At some places, it is currently 6 which I believe provides value. Professionals lean heavily on dogs. The public drives the favorites. Again, the Packers don't have to win the game to cover the spread. The Eagles do!

 

[Co-Captain]

GoGo, when I was talking about matchups, I meant individual matchups. Colleges you see blowouts because the entire team itself is a complete mismatch, and thus not competitive. In the Pro's , if matchups were not so important, how can you explain the fluctuations of salarys some players get. Individual matchups are very important in the Pro's.

NE def is good because they got probably the best cornes to avoid this type of thing. StLouis has a good Off , because they got probably the best tandem of WR's to burn any CB's in the league. A perfect ex is when Deion Sanders was in his prime at Atlanta. He literally could shut half of the field down. Thats good, but there other half got exploited because that CB got exploited all day. Thus teams found ways to beat them. Philly needs Vincent cause he could hold his own. I just dont know if his replacement or him not at 100 percent can demand this type of respect. I dont think so, and that creates problems for the entire Def. because GB has as well a good ground game.

But good luck to you as well GoGo. Either way this game goes, Capo is going to make sure hes deep in a HOHO, gotta release the stress you know.

 

[DENIRO]

i think you can throw out the lucky sneaking in the playoffs out the window

philly was lucky beating the giants on a kickoff return (westbrook)w/ a minute left.

its all about matchups

philly well rested?
well injured

westbrook leading rusher out
had 13 tds(approx td a game)
will miss him in kickoffs -rookie mahre will be taking his place

strengths vs weaknesses