Beware of bad teams

[jasonc69]

As we seen with Cincinnati last night, beware of teams that don't have anything to play for. Just my tip of the day.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

very very nice call

i agree generally on the thought ........... and mediocre big schools seem to be big ATS losers these days. maybe i'm on wrong subset

 

[sendacash]

Amen to that bro. This is the time of year teams with nothing to play for starting mailing it in. I think before backing a somewhat iffy dog we have to ask ourselves, what's their motivation? and if we can't answer that question, well then maybe its better to just pass.

 

[jasonc69]

I didn't wanna name any teams but Illinois was one that was on the top of my list. I saw a few on here that really liked them.

 

[Skeeter123]

Got any examples of games that fit this criteria today?

 

[ofred]

Amen to that bro. This is the time of year teams with nothing to play for starting mailing it in. I think before backing a somewhat iffy dog we have to ask ourselves, what's their motivation? and if we can't answer that question, well then maybe its better to just pass.

Some coaches can motivate a bad team to play hard at home and hang in there, and will go all out blitzing and open the playbook…others are either so bad it doesn't matter(this is especially true defensively) or their coaches are already on the hot seat and distracted at looking for their next job. Coaches also run out of encouraging things to say, and players just shrug off the speeches and messages on the locker room wall.

 

[jasonc69]

Missouri could be one. Nothing to play for and Tennessee could be playing their way into the sec championship game. Could get ugly.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ones that fit the general criteria,

cal, asu, ucla, kansas.....

cal +10.5 vs. stanford (thinks it's at cal, but might be neutral site of course) seems like a line that is just wrong.. cal can't stop anyone at all, and stanford has a good defense

think i like ASU + 27 @ washington............. always like ASU in general....... washington bitter disappointment. down 2 key defenders now. defense had major pass rush issues last week before their best front 7 run stopper went down for rest of season. now mediocre pass rush will be further harmed by washington have to guard against run a bit more

 

[Serbone]

Missouri could be one. Nothing to play for and Tennessee could be playing their way into the sec championship game. Could get ugly.

Missouri is bad, that is it.
They have something to play for, a first year coach, trying to build a culture and all that BS. Sure they might get pounded.
It is best to bet against a team that usually has a shot at a bowl but is eliminated and the coach is on the hot seat (like Cincy).

 

[8ate]

The Books love the "bad teams."

 

[sendacash]

ones that fit the general criteria,

cal, asu, ucla, kansas.....

cal +10.5 vs. stanford (thinks it's at cal, but might be neutral site of course) seems like a line that is just wrong.. cal can't stop anyone at all, and stanford has a good defense

think i like ASU + 27 @ washington............. always like ASU in general....... washington bitter disappointment. down 2 key defenders now. defense had major pass rush issues last week before their best front 7 run stopper went down for rest of season. now mediocre pass rush will be further harmed by washington have to guard against run a bit more

Bird, Cal vs Stanford is a huge rivalry game as is UCLA vs USC. I would at least expect good effort from both of those dogs, not sure it will matter though

 

[rivercitybirdie]

would have michigan state have qualified?

i wonder if teams that have been very good recently are better or worse for this....... oregon is another, although i think good/bad they have a different vibe than almost any other team.

 

[sendacash]

Got any examples of games that fit this criteria today?

Well, you could start looking for teams with less than 4 wins, assuming they have 2 more games to play and therefore cannot become bowl eligible. Obviously you will need to dig a little deeper than that and I think there were cases of 5 win teams in a bowl last season, but here's links to query for such teams both away and home dogs:

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...n=2016+and+AD+and+wins<4&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

http://sportsdatabase.com/ncaafb/qu...n=2016+and+HD+and+wins<4&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Bird, Cal vs Stanford is a huge rivalry game as is UCLA vs USC. I would at least expect good effort from both of those dogs, not sure it will matter though

send, good point. i hadn't factored that in much if at all............... are rivalry games still worth a bunch of points for big underdog? years ago, yes. not sure so much recently.

the cal-stanford, i don't care......... UCLA-USC i think the rivalry points might be relevent.

EDIT: send, more i think about it, you are completely right on mentioning rivalry as OP was interested in "nothing to play for".. my interest is more mediocre giant universities seem to massive FADE material recently. but they are one of my 4 or 5 key themes in the past.

 

[pizzap]

was looking at ucla