Who to bet in the 2017 national championship game
Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN Insider
4/2/17
LAS VEGAS -- And now, we're down to the Final Two. It's not as catchy as the Final Four, but it's the matchup that ends all the madness, as we crown a champion between Gonzaga and North Carolina.
Both No. 1 seeds won their games Saturday, against South Carolina and Oregon respectively, but both were covered in the point spread by the underdogs. That's been one of the stories of the tournament, as favorites mostly advanced (with the notable exceptions of the huge upsets) but underdogs cashed more often than not, at 34-24-3 ATS (58.6 percent) with one game closing pick 'em (Purdue-Iowa State in the round of 32). Over/unders split 1-1 on Saturday against the Vegas consensus closing totals, but overs still lead 34-17-1 (55.7 percent) for the tournament, though unders are 9-5 since the start of the Sweet 16 round.
EDITOR'S PICKS
ESPN Chalk's college basketball handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange have also had a successful tournament in breaking down the games. Tuley improved to 13-6 (68.4 percent) with his ATS best bets with Oregon +4.5 on Saturday. Lange was given a loss on his North Carolina-Oregon under 152 published play, though it did stay under the closing total of 153.5 at the majority of Vegas books. His official O/U best-bet record fell to 5-5, but he's 3-1 ATS with his point-spread best bets from earlier in the tournament.
For Monday night's title game, Tuley and Lange land on the same side, and with a combined 16-7 ATS (69.6 percent) on best bets in the tourney, their takes are worth a look.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Sunday afternoon, but as always shop around for the best price you can get.
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET, Glendale, Arizona
Over/under: 154.5
Andrew Lange: Only one team -- Gonzaga -- shot higher than 40 percent from the floor in Saturday's two Final Four games. Despite that, both games went over the total based on the closing lines at both Pinnacle Sports and Las Vegas' Westgate SuperBook. There was decent pace to both games, but also 90 combined free throws, of which 78 percent were made. It makes for an interesting handicap for Monday's national championship game, because I remain a believer in both defenses, but am not completely sold on the under, as neither team is likely to turn it into a slow-down affair.
A big key in this game is front-court play. The Ducks were without Chris Boucher, but blocked seven shots and were even on the glass against the Tar Heels. Kennedy Meeks had one of the best games of his career (11-of-13 FGs) but the rest of the team shot only 25 percent. Like Oregon, Gonzaga is also a team that has the size and athleticism to match North Carolina in the paint, with Przemek Karnowski, Johnathan Williams and Zach Collins. This obviously sets up well for "redemption" for UNC after last year's last-second loss to Villanova. But I simply haven't been overly impressed with the play of the Tar Heels. They've shown grit and the ability to close out games, but I feel that the struggles they had offensively against Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (40 percent combined FGs, and a 0-2-1 ATS record) could be even more magnified against the Zags. I would recommend seeking out a plus-2 on the underdog, as well as a small lean towards the under.
The pick: Gonzaga +1.5* (lean to under 154.5)
Dave Tuley: I bet Gonzaga plus-2 on Saturday night, as I saw indicators that it could drop down (and if it reverses back to plus-2.5, I'll re-up). I've been writing a lot about out ESPN Chalk Vegas Power Ratings and we've had Gonzaga over North Carolina (by half a point) since Villanova was ousted in the second round, so I believed that the Bulldogs should be favored over the Tar Heels, and nothing happened Saturday night to change that opinion.
In fact, I feel stronger about it now. We all saw how well Oregon did rebounding against the much-taller North Carolina frontline (OK, at least before the late free throws) and now Gonzaga counters with its pair of 7-footers, Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. That takes away one of the Tar Heels' biggest advantages against most opponents. And when we look to the backcourt, Nigel Williams-Goss runs the show for Gonzaga and is a shut-down defender, while it certainly doesn't help the Tar Heels that Joel Berry II is still hobbled by his ankle injuries and unlikely to be anywhere near 100 percent on Monday night. The X factor in this game is North Carolina's Justin Jackson, as he's a matchup nightmare. It'll be interesting to see if Williams-Goss draws that assignment, but regardless I'm confident Gonzaga coach Mark Few will have some sort of game plan to help guard the perimeter. This Gonzaga team doesn't have any weaknesses, and I believe that'll be the difference. I would still take any points, but my recurring feeling is we're not going to need them.
The pick: Gonzaga +1.5* (or on the money line at +110)
Dave TuleyAndrew Lange
ESPN Insider
4/2/17
LAS VEGAS -- And now, we're down to the Final Two. It's not as catchy as the Final Four, but it's the matchup that ends all the madness, as we crown a champion between Gonzaga and North Carolina.
Both No. 1 seeds won their games Saturday, against South Carolina and Oregon respectively, but both were covered in the point spread by the underdogs. That's been one of the stories of the tournament, as favorites mostly advanced (with the notable exceptions of the huge upsets) but underdogs cashed more often than not, at 34-24-3 ATS (58.6 percent) with one game closing pick 'em (Purdue-Iowa State in the round of 32). Over/unders split 1-1 on Saturday against the Vegas consensus closing totals, but overs still lead 34-17-1 (55.7 percent) for the tournament, though unders are 9-5 since the start of the Sweet 16 round.
EDITOR'S PICKS
ESPN Chalk's college basketball handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange have also had a successful tournament in breaking down the games. Tuley improved to 13-6 (68.4 percent) with his ATS best bets with Oregon +4.5 on Saturday. Lange was given a loss on his North Carolina-Oregon under 152 published play, though it did stay under the closing total of 153.5 at the majority of Vegas books. His official O/U best-bet record fell to 5-5, but he's 3-1 ATS with his point-spread best bets from earlier in the tournament.
For Monday night's title game, Tuley and Lange land on the same side, and with a combined 16-7 ATS (69.6 percent) on best bets in the tourney, their takes are worth a look.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of early Sunday afternoon, but as always shop around for the best price you can get.
No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-1.5) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs
Monday, 9:20 p.m. ET, Glendale, Arizona
Over/under: 154.5
Andrew Lange: Only one team -- Gonzaga -- shot higher than 40 percent from the floor in Saturday's two Final Four games. Despite that, both games went over the total based on the closing lines at both Pinnacle Sports and Las Vegas' Westgate SuperBook. There was decent pace to both games, but also 90 combined free throws, of which 78 percent were made. It makes for an interesting handicap for Monday's national championship game, because I remain a believer in both defenses, but am not completely sold on the under, as neither team is likely to turn it into a slow-down affair.
A big key in this game is front-court play. The Ducks were without Chris Boucher, but blocked seven shots and were even on the glass against the Tar Heels. Kennedy Meeks had one of the best games of his career (11-of-13 FGs) but the rest of the team shot only 25 percent. Like Oregon, Gonzaga is also a team that has the size and athleticism to match North Carolina in the paint, with Przemek Karnowski, Johnathan Williams and Zach Collins. This obviously sets up well for "redemption" for UNC after last year's last-second loss to Villanova. But I simply haven't been overly impressed with the play of the Tar Heels. They've shown grit and the ability to close out games, but I feel that the struggles they had offensively against Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oregon (40 percent combined FGs, and a 0-2-1 ATS record) could be even more magnified against the Zags. I would recommend seeking out a plus-2 on the underdog, as well as a small lean towards the under.
The pick: Gonzaga +1.5* (lean to under 154.5)
Dave Tuley: I bet Gonzaga plus-2 on Saturday night, as I saw indicators that it could drop down (and if it reverses back to plus-2.5, I'll re-up). I've been writing a lot about out ESPN Chalk Vegas Power Ratings and we've had Gonzaga over North Carolina (by half a point) since Villanova was ousted in the second round, so I believed that the Bulldogs should be favored over the Tar Heels, and nothing happened Saturday night to change that opinion.
In fact, I feel stronger about it now. We all saw how well Oregon did rebounding against the much-taller North Carolina frontline (OK, at least before the late free throws) and now Gonzaga counters with its pair of 7-footers, Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. That takes away one of the Tar Heels' biggest advantages against most opponents. And when we look to the backcourt, Nigel Williams-Goss runs the show for Gonzaga and is a shut-down defender, while it certainly doesn't help the Tar Heels that Joel Berry II is still hobbled by his ankle injuries and unlikely to be anywhere near 100 percent on Monday night. The X factor in this game is North Carolina's Justin Jackson, as he's a matchup nightmare. It'll be interesting to see if Williams-Goss draws that assignment, but regardless I'm confident Gonzaga coach Mark Few will have some sort of game plan to help guard the perimeter. This Gonzaga team doesn't have any weaknesses, and I believe that'll be the difference. I would still take any points, but my recurring feeling is we're not going to need them.
The pick: Gonzaga +1.5* (or on the money line at +110)
