Betting The Same Amount On Every Wager vs. Laying More Units On Stronger Plays

[HacheMan]

This is a debate that has gone on between sports-bettors for a very long time.

Some believe in betting the same amount on every single wager, while others think it's more wise to lay different amounts on bets according to how strong they feel the play is.

I've heard good cases from both types of bettors in the past.

What method do you follow & believe is best?

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[royalfan]

No debate here. The more skilled you are the more you should stagger the amounts.

 

[TomGshotput]

No debate here. The more skilled you are the more you should stagger the amounts.

True story

Against -110 lines, if you can't pick over 52.5%, it's just a hobby/action; betting the same each game will keep your loses to a minimum and you/ll have more action and more enjoyable hobby

If you are over 53%, you'll have a much better road to the six and seven figure bankrolls if you put more money on the table when you have more of an edge

 

[whalewager]

I bet more when I get way up

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

I bet more when I get way up

I'd be happy to write your action any time Sir

 

[whalewager]

you would have to post up to me to prove you have it

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

True story

Against -110 lines, if you can't pick over 52.5%, it's just a hobby/action; betting the same each game will keep your loses to a minimum and you/ll have more action and more enjoyable hobby

If you are over 53%, you'll have a much better road to the six and seven figure bankrolls if you put more money on the table when you have more of an edge

The Commish is wise.

But two important comments on this:

1. Very few players keep accurate records to determine whether they are better than 53%. They will say they are (God bless their little hearts!), but few have the spreadsheets of hundreds & hundreds of plays to prove it
2. If you do keep records and you know you beat 53% then you can use that number to incorporate the Kelly Criterion to know exactly how much you should bet for each game (ie how much over 53% are your picks?). But, read #1 again and you'll see why very few cappers get to this level

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

you would have to post up to me to prove you have it

Against you, son, I'll put it in escrow. Just send me a PM and I'll get you an account today.

 

[barman]

More interesting to me is the underlying question generated by your Topic question.

That is, if you honestly have a capping system that you feel can isolate a smaller range of events into an anticipated higher chance to win, why even bother investing at all on the "lesser" selections and instead reserve all your investment for the spots which you perceive to be better than "normal".

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

More interesting to me is the underlying question generated by your Topic question.

That is, if you honestly have a capping system that you feel can isolate a smaller range of events into an anticipated higher chance to win, why even bother investing at all on the "lesser" selections and instead reserve all your investment for the spots which you perceive to be better than "normal".

Its not much about the better spots, its more about the juice and overcoming that edge. Bottom line: You have to be better than 53%, how you actually go about it is irrelevant. I know some guys that pick 70% but its only during very, very specific Super Bowl props. Great picks, but only comes about once/year.

 

[Soriano12]

More interesting to me is the underlying question generated by your Topic question.

That is, if you honestly have a capping system that you feel can isolate a smaller range of events into an anticipated higher chance to win, why even bother investing at all on the "lesser" selections and instead reserve all your investment for the spots which you perceive to be better than "normal".

Why shouldn't you bet these lesser selections as long as they are still +EV? The high percentage plays probably won't occur quite as often and even if they did, they probably would leave you with a big chunk of your bankroll unused, so you could put that money into play with a +EV bet.

Personally, I don't like betting the same amount on every play: If a bookies line for game X is more pts off compared to my own line than the line for for game y, why should I bet the same amount on both?

 

[bellyputter]

Who lays -10 anymore?

 

[ParanoidAndroid]

Who lays -10 anymore?

I'll give you plenty of opportunities for -110. Hell, I like you, I'll even go for -115 because you're a special friend.

 

[TomGshotput]

That is, if you honestly have a capping system that you feel can isolate a smaller range of events into an anticipated higher chance to win, why even bother investing at all on the "lesser" selections and instead reserve all your investment for the spots which you perceive to be better than "normal".

If someone offered you a chance to bet on a coin flip that paid out two-to-one and someone else offered you the same bet that paid out 11-to10, why shouldn't you take both bets? And why wouldn't you put more on the first bet as opposed to the second? Both are among the small range of bets offered with an anticipated nice payout

 

[BCEAGLE1996]

for me , I should bet the same amount on each game, because I get too emotionally involved if a big bet loses.

 

[billhill999]

I'd be happy to write your action any time Sir

Careful, Whale is a handicapping machine.

For the last 25 years, my wagers have ranged from 1* to 5* units.
I'm a grinder, my usual play is 2*, It's rare when I play a game for 5*, I'm still in the game after all these years, I never sweat the bet, and if I had to guess, I'm about even or slightly head since 1980.

 

[bellyputter]

I have a different bankroll for each sport I wager on each season. I use a % of bankroll that I have tweaked over the years. Flat betting isn't the way to maximize profits if you wager for a living.

 

[SSI]

handicapping and flat betting, may keep you in the game for a while but neither will make you the biggest profits..

SSI

 

[D2bets]

It's hard to bet the same on everything when you are just betting as much as you can get down max when you find a side and number you like. You just take what is given.

 

[D2bets]

handicapping and flat betting, may keep you in the game for a while but neither will make you the biggest profits..

SSI

So true.