Betting the NFL in November ......be careful

[Piranha]

The way I handicap is quite different from most bettors. I will factor in the style of betting during each month which I tracked since 2002. My findings for my style of betting is at its worst in November. My conclusion is based on College Football season coming to an end. Most bettors focus heavily in CFB during the last few weeks of their season meaning more money is betted at that time. I will look at Saturday's games and charted which way most of the lopsided games has gone towards (book vs public). Usually it goes more towards the books way therefore Sunday in the NFL I will tread lightly on the heavily lopsided games and just played the stronger teams. If you noticed that books has had trouble winning recently. I've noticed this new way of thinking has helped me recently from years of losing in November.

Just my point of view. You can agree or disagree with my findings but it has helped me win more now than before. The last two weeks has been very strong only because I laid off games I would have normally played.

 

[indiana]

Piranha............appreciate the info..........BOL with your upcoming action...........you and your family have a great Holiday.............indy

 

[seldomseen]

I always look forward to your posts. Best of luck to you!

 

[KingEleven]

Personally, I need to be careful betting the NFL in ANY month this season. Been dismal. Sounds like you are doing well, keep it up!

 

[Kaveman]

Interesting; I never thought to equate the two. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Interesting; I never thought to equate the two. Thanks for the insight.

It's kind of interesting how the two correlate sometimes...

 

[chonce]

Books have had a tough year, by their standards. One problem is if you had bet the top 5 teams every week, and bet against the worst 5 each week, you would be cashing at 57 percent (some guy did the math using ESPN power rankings). Normally, the book relies on bad teams to win and it isn't happening enough this year.

I mean, you look at CLE + 7 and SF + whatever and instincts tell me those are the right games. But these teams are just not coming through for the books like they do most years. Meanwhile NE and Dallas (probably the two most bet teams in the NFL) are covering like crazy.

But, it is likely still just a short-sample size anomaly. Over the long run, betting on the best teams is not generally profitable.

 

[Piranha]

Books have had a tough year, by their standards. One problem is if you had bet the top 5 teams every week, and bet against the worst 5 each week, you would be cashing at 57 percent (some guy did the math using ESPN power rankings). Normally, the book relies on bad teams to win and it isn't happening enough this year.

I mean, you look at CLE + 7 and SF + whatever and instincts tell me those are the right games. But these teams are just not coming through for the books like they do most years. Meanwhile NE and Dallas (probably the two most bet teams in the NFL) are covering like crazy.

But, it is likely still just a short-sample size anomaly. Over the long run, betting on the best teams is not generally profitable.

I agree with your statement. It's usually the ugly teams, the teams you don't want to put money on are the ones that will cash for you. This season the ugly teams has not fair well and that's one reason the books are getting hit hard.

Here is another statistic for everyone to ponder..........if you follow SI consensus. The team at the 1 pm games who has the HIGHEST % lopsidedness has covered 8 of the 11 weeks. eg (NE 79% vs SF 21%).....meaning public wins and books loses. I have charted this for 3.5 years. I started to lay off the most lopsided game and it has helped me from losing. These are some of my unorthodox handicapping techniques that has help me to be one step ahead and continue to be successful.

 

[GasMan]

This reminds me of the NFL about 6-7 years ago. Denver, New England, Philly, Green Bay and the Giants were all rolling along week after week. They couldn't hang a big enough number.

 

[bobbyjones2]

Books have had a tough year, by their standards. One problem is if you had bet the top 5 teams every week, and bet against the worst 5 each week, you would be cashing at 57 percent (some guy did the math using ESPN power rankings). Normally, the book relies on bad teams to win and it isn't happening enough this year.

I mean, you look at CLE + 7 and SF + whatever and instincts tell me those are the right games. But these teams are just not coming through for the books like they do most years. Meanwhile NE and Dallas (probably the two most bet teams in the NFL) are covering like crazy.

But, it is likely still just a short-sample size anomaly. Over the long run, betting on the best teams is not generally profitable.

just crazy, you think you are on the right side, taking these garbage squads, at inflated numbers, while the sheep all line up eating the excessive chalk and just keep cashing

just feels like the line makers not holding up their end this year

 

[Serbone]

The way I handicap is quite different from most bettors. I will factor in the style of betting during each month which I tracked since 2002. My findings for my style of betting is at its worst in November. My conclusion is based on College Football season coming to an end. Most bettors focus heavily in CFB during the last few weeks of their season meaning more money is betted at that time. I will look at Saturday's games and charted which way most of the lopsided games has gone towards (book vs public). Usually it goes more towards the books way therefore Sunday in the NFL I will tread lightly on the heavily lopsided games and just played the stronger teams. If you noticed that books has had trouble winning recently. I've noticed this new way of thinking has helped me recently from years of losing in November.

Just my point of view. You can agree or disagree with my findings but it has helped me win more now than before. The last two weeks has been very strong only because I laid off games I would have normally played.

You are saying that you take into account the Saturday college games, and the results affect the ATS results of the NFL games the very next day?

 

[Piranha]

I have noticed on Turkey day that 2 out of 3 games the public will win......most of the time. I generally do not do well on Thanksgiving. I've started to adjust.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

This reminds me of the NFL about 6-7 years ago. Denver, New England, Philly, Green Bay and the Giants were all rolling along week after week. They couldn't hang a big enough number.

Ya, last time betting and ratings were down. Something to do with recession and people losing jobs en masse.

 

[Piranha]

Here is another statistic for everyone to ponder..........if you follow SI consensus. The team at the 1 pm games who has the HIGHEST % lopsidedness has covered 8 of the 11 weeks. eg (NE 79% vs SF 21%).....meaning public wins and books loses. I have charted this for 3.5 years. I started to lay off the most lopsided game and it has helped me from losing. These are some of my unorthodox handicapping techniques that has help me to be one step ahead and continue to be successful.

If you looked today at SI for the 1 pm games. NYG was the highest at 81% resulted NYG covered. It's the next highest that will come in. TENN 80% resulted CHIC covered. This pattern has been money since the last 3-4 years.

 

[TenPin832]

If you looked today at SI for the 1 pm games. NYG was the highest at 81% resulted NYG covered. It's the next highest that will come in. TENN 80% resulted CHIC covered. This pattern has been money since the last 3-4 years.

Chicago was +6 at my book...kind of like a win this year in NFL for me though

 

[razorbackpicks]

Can you link what you are using for those 1pm games?

 

[DC.]

chicago was a push on my book at 6

 

[OverThinker]

chicago was a push on my book at 6

Yea i think most ppl cashed with titans unless they got worst number which was -6 from what I saw.

 

[Piranha]

Can you link what you are using for those 1pm games?

21 13FINAL 251 SD-P Rivers 252 HOU-B Osweiler	51% 49%	40% 60%	71% 29%			47 -1	-2.5-115 46u-115	-2.5 45.5	-3+100 45.5	-2.5 45.5	-2.5 45.5	-2.5 45.5	-2.5-115 46u-115
27 21FINAL 253 TEN-M Mariota 254 CHI-M BARKLEY	80% 20%	62% 38%	71% 29%			-3.5-115 43	-6.5-111 42u-115	-6.5-117 41.5o-108	-6.5 42	-7+105 42	-6.5-115 41.5o-115	-6.5-120 41.5o-115	-6.5-111 42
21 28FINAL 255 JAX-B Bortles 256 BUF-T Taylor	37% 63%	34% 66%	70% 30%			47 -7	44u-115 -7.5-105	43.5u-113 -8.5+102	44 -9+100	43.5 -10+110	43.5o-112 -8	43.5o-112 -8	44 -8-115
14 19FINAL 257 CIN-A Dalton 258 BAL-J Flacco	34% 66%	41% 59%	51% 49%			41.5 -3-119	42o-115 -3.5	42o-114 -3.5	42.5 -3.5	42.5 -3.5-105	41.5o-115 -3.5	41.5o-115 -3.5	42.5 -3.5
19 38FINAL 259 ARI-C Palmer 260 ATL-M Ryan	35% 65%	57% 43%	81% 19%			51 -4.5	48o-118 -4	49 -3.5-107	49 -4	48.5 -4	49 -4-105	49 -4-105	48.5 -4
24 31FINAL 261 SF-C Kaepernick 262 MIA-R Tannehill	32% 68%	41% 59%	68% 32%			46.5 -7	44.5o-115 -7-105	44.5o-111 -7	45 -7	44.5 -8+110	44.5 -7	44.5 -7	44.5o-115 -7
21 49FINAL 263 LA-J Goff 264 NO-D Brees	34% 66%	48% 52%	58% 42%			46 -7-106	45o-112 -7.5-105	45.5o-115 -7.5+102	45.5 -7.5	45 -9+100	45 -7.5-105	45 -7.5-105	45o-112 -7.5
27 13FINAL 265 NYG-E Manning 266 CLE-J MCCOWN	81% 19%	72% 28%	63% 37%			-7 45	-6.5-115 46.5	-6.5 47o-107	-7+100 47	-7.5+125 46.5	-6.5-115 47	-6.5-115 47	-7+100 46.5

 

[john towers]

It looks like some dogs covered with closing numbers. Post your plays.