Betting Previews For Top 25 College Football Teams

[HacheMan]

Title bets, over/under projections for top 25 CFB teams
CFB Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN Insider

With the college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to bring you betting previews for the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14.


West Virginia Mountaineers

National title odds: 100-1 (opened 50-1)
Season win total: 6.5
FPI win total projection: 5.9

Phil Steele

Strengths: Will Grier is 6-0 as a starting quarterback and was my No. 3 rated quarterback out of high school when he signed at Florida. He should be one of the Big 12's top quarterbacks this season (10 touchdowns and 70.1 adjusted QBR at Florida in 2015). I rate their running back corps, featuring senior Justin Crawford, as the No. 22 unit in the country and the linebackers at No. 30. They also get back perhaps their top defensive player in safety Dravon Askew-Henry, who missed all of 2016 with a knee injury.



Weaknesses: The defense has just three returning starters, and only 38.9 percent of their total tackles from 2016 will return for this season. There will be plenty of youth on that side of the ball. Offensively, they lose two dynamic wide receivers in Shelton Gibson and Daikiel Shorts, who combined for 1,845 yards and an impressive 17.4 yards per catch. The top two returnees, Ka'Raun White and Jovon Durante, combined for just 914 yards and a pedestrian 11.0 yards per catch.

Over/under (6.5): West Virginia won 10 games last year, made this top-25 list, and their over/under is just 6.5? Well, their experience level is low at just No. 125, they have a tough schedule and they could be a 'dog in six games this year. This looks like a no-play to me.

National title odds (100-1): After winning 10 games last year, Mountaineer fans have big expectations for 2017, and there appears to be a lot of value at 100-1. However, with their experience level and schedule, I do not see them winning the Big 12, so this is again a no-play for me.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (6.5): There isn't a team that I like more in all of college football than the West Virginia Mountaineers this year. Why? Well, the arrival of former Florida QB Will Grier, who will start for the Mountaineers when they face off with the Virginia Tech Hokies in the opener, has a lot to do with it. When we last saw Grier, he was leading the Gators to a 4-0 record in the SEC in his first four conference games played, including a roll job versus the then-No. 3 ranked Ole Miss Rebels in which he went 24-for-29 and and threw four touchdowns. With Grier in the Dana Holgerson system, I see the WVU offense being close to unstoppable, and I believe Grier is the best quarterback talent that the school has ever had. The schedule is daunting, with the Big 12 being the deepest conference in the country, but I believe they hit the over on wins here.

National title odds (100-1): There's value here, so it could be worth a shot at 100-1 to win the national title and 20-1 to win the Big 12.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (6.5): I think West Virigina is a 6-6 team, and FPI agrees with me, posting a projection of 5.9 wins for the Mountaineers. Yes, Will Grier is an upgrade under center, but this is a team which loses eight starters on defense and its top receiver. Against the three most talented teams WVU played last year (Oklahoma, OSU and Miami), the Mountaineers were outscored 124-62. Keep in mind that there were also some close wins against Kansas State, Texas and Baylor. Between the games that WVU easily could have lost last year, the return of just eight total starters, a probable shift in turnover margin given the loss of defensive playmakers and having to go to Kansas State, Oklahoma and TCU on the road, it will be hard for WVU to get to seven wins. Sure, it's possible, but there isn't much margin for error. The Big 12 should be better this year, as I expect TCU, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas and Iowa State to all improve. West Virginia is one of two teams (Oklahoma, given the loss of Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon and Dede Westbrook, being the other) in the Big 12 that I expect to be worse than they were last year. I see likely wins over ECU, Delaware State, Kansas, Texas Tech and Iowa State, meaning two more wins need to be found, and I think they will be hard pressed to get them. I'm not saying they can't, but FPI gives them less than a 40 percent chance to win in each of the other seven games.

National title odds (100-1): It's not happening. Use the $10 on lunch, instead

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14.



Washington State Cougars

National title odds: 100-1 (opened 60-1)
Season win total: 7.5
FPI win total projection: 8.1

Phil Steele

Strengths: Luke Falk turned down the NFL and returns for his fifth year in Mike Leach's system (back-to-back seasons of at least 4,400 passing yards and 38 touchdowns). The Cougars have three veteran running backs who combined for 1,634 yards rushing and another 1,014 yards receiving last year. Oh, and Washington State is the 16th most experienced team in the country. There is a lot to like about this team.



Weaknesses: They do have seven of their top eight defensive backs returning, but even so, they were just No. 77 in my pass defense rankings last year. The special teams return almost everyone, but that unit has been No. 123, 110 and 103 in my special teams rankings over the last three years.

Over/under (7.5): The Cougars won eight games last year, have 16 returning starters and have a lot of experience coming back, but I am going to go against that support and side with the under. Washington State has to face Stanford and USC at home and has road trips to Oregon, Utah and Washington, so I am projecting seven wins.

National title odds (100-1): I think it will be tough for any team not named Washington or Stanford to come out of the North. Even if Washington State did, it would likely have to beat USC in the Pac 12 title game. If you are a Cougar fan who looks through crimson and cream glasses, then there is value with a quarterback like Falk running the offense, but I will pass.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (7.5): No one was higher on the Cougs toward the end of last year than I was, and they took me down with their sinking ship, ending the season with losses to Colorado and Washington before suffering the most indescribable loss of the bowl season, a 17-12 fall to Minnesota. So what do we make of the boys from Pullman? They should be undefeated when the Trojans stroll in for a Sept. 29 Friday night game, and they then head to Oregon the following week. The schedule is backloaded with road games against Arizona, Utah and Washington. I am going to say the Cougars don't reach eight wins, even though they do have nine returning starters on defense -- though, I will admit that I am still a little wounded after putting all my eggs in the Washington State basket last fall. I'll take the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (7.5): The Cougars should definitely start the season 4-0, and I would think they beat Colorado in Pullman, putting them at five wins. Road games at Arizona and Cal are winnable, and the Cougs put a beating on both of those teams at home last year. Assume two wins there, and that would be seven. Can they find one more win from a slate including USC, at Oregon, Stanford, at Utah and at Washington? Eight wins is doable, despite how this team floundered down the stretch and was a no-show in the bowl game. While Falk gets a good deal of the headlines, the Cougars have a good running game, and I like what Alex Grinch has done with this defense which returns nine starters. I'll call for 8-4.

National title odds (100-1): Go play black or red on the roulette wheel. You have a better chance at winning.

 

[HacheMan]

TCU Horned Frogs

National title odds: 100-1 (opened 60-1)
Season win total: 7.5
FPI win total projection: 8.7

Phil Steele

Strengths: TCU goes from No. 113 on my experience chart in 2016 all the way up to No. 4 this year, so it is suddenly a veteran group. I rate their running backs, receivers, offensive line, linebackers, defensive backs and special teams all within my top-26 units in the country.



Weaknesses: While all eight position groups rank in my top units, the biggest question marks are quarterback Kenny Hill's decision-making (17 TDs and 13 interceptions in 2016) and the defensive line. TCU was eighth in the nation last season with 43.0 sacks, but the line now must replace three starters.

Over/under (7.5): Gary Patterson has had three losing seasons in his career, and he followed up his first two with double-digit win seasons. I have the Frogs favored in nine games this year, so I clearly like over 7.5 wins for the season.

National title odds (100-1): The last time TCU made both my most improved list and my surprise team list was 2014, and it just missed making the playoffs, finishing No. 3 in the country. It is one of my prime contenders in the Big 12, and that gives it a legitimate shot to make the playoffs. It has two top-seven finishes the past three years and has great value at 100-1.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (7.5): The Horned Frogs were so puzzling offensively last year. Kenny Hill had the third-best throwing season in the history of the program, but that included 13 interceptions, which led the Big 12. Additionally, the Horned Frogs receivers dropped the most passes in the country. There's no doubt that TCU gets the benefit of the doubt because of who its head coach is, but I really need to see more from Kenny Hill later in the season, especially in those November games when it hosts Texas and Baylor and goes on the road to play Oklahoma and Texas Tech. There is also a trip to Fayetteville to play Arkansas early in the season, which could be a tricky matchup. With all the talent returning across the Big 12, I just feel that the Horned Frogs will be in the middle of the pack, so I'm thinking the under here.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (7.5): A Gary Patterson team last finished with a losing record in 2013, and the Horned Frogs bounced back the following season to the tune of 12-1 and easily could have been a part of the College Football Playoff. TCU was viewed as a trendy alternative to Oklahoma in the Big 12 in 2016, but never looked right during the season, losing four one-score games and committing a ton of ill-timed turnovers. So if you believe in the theory that turnovers and close-game luck is a one-year blip, TCU could be your team in 2017. Essentially the entire offense returns next year, as do seven starters on defense. However, the road schedule is no joke: at Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Oklahoma. FPI has them at 8.7 wins, and the only game where the Horned Frogs will be a big dog is at OU (19.3 percent). FPI gives TCU better than a 50 percent chance to win every other game on the schedule (50.8 percent at Oklahoma State). If TCU goes 6-0 at home, one would surely think it could find two road wins to reach eight wins for the season.

National title odds (100-1): It's unlikely TCU will win the national title, but at triple-digit odds, there are enough angles to make it worth a flier. Will the CFP Selection Committee leave a Big 12 Champion out for the third time in four years if its close? That could certainly boost the Big 12's chance of making the playoff in 2017.

 

[Gold_finger]

thanks. keep them coming!

 

[HacheMan]

thanks. keep them coming!

Will post the others when released :toast:

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14.


Virginia Tech Hokies

National title odds: 80-1 (opened 40-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 7.8

Phil Steele

Strengths: The Hokies return seven starters from a defense that allowed just 22.8 points per game in 2016. They have my No. 26-rated defensive line, No. 9 group of linebackers and No. 3 defensive backs. Tech is a defensive headache for all opponents. Offensively, top running back Travon McMillian (4.6 yards per tote and seven touchdowns) is back and will be pushed by true freshman Jalen Holston.

Weaknesses: Jerod Evans left early for the NFL, so Virginia Tech will have zero career pass attempts returning at the quarterback position. Additionally, they lose three of their top four receivers, including a pair of NFL draft picks. The passing game will have its share of growing pains.

Over/under (8.5): Even with the losses in the pass game, I do like the replacements, and Tech has a potential top-10 defense. I actually have the Hokies favored in 10 games this year, so I would be siding with the over.

National title odds (80-1): The Hokies are my No. 8 surprise team this year, and the odds have gone from 40-1 to 80-1, so there is real value here. They do have three capable quarterbacks ready to take over, so if they get to the ACC title game, they have a chance to make the playoff.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (8.5): Can Justin Fuente turn what looks like a bleak quarterback situation coming into the season into a strength of the team for a second straight year? That is the biggest question for me when I look at the Hokies this year. One thing is for sure -- the defense will be a strength with guys like Andrew Motuapuaka and Tremaine Edmunds returning at linebacker for Bud Foster.

You obviously have to look at their schedule and see what lies ahead there, and I see a huge test vs. West Virginia in Week 1. They also have some tricky road trips, including Boston College a week after they host Clemson and going into Atlanta to face the Wrambling Wreck of Georgia Tech a week after heading to South Florida to play Miami. I just get the feeling that the Hokies are a team that is ranked pretty high this year because they had success last year. Let me have the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (8.5): I think the Hokies will beat West Virginia in the opening week, which will put them at 4-0 when they host Clemson on September 30. The surprise departure of Jerod Evans hurts, as do the losses of Bucky Hodges and Isaiah Ford, but this defense should still be very good. The schedule goes their way too as they get two of the weaker teams in the ACC -- Boston College and Virginia -- on the road. If the Hokies can handle those two, it means home wins over North Carolina, Duke and Pittsburgh would have them hitting the nine-win mark. That seems very likely in my eyes, even with some unproven skill in key offensive spots.

National title odds (80-1): I think VT is a nine- or 10-win team, but they are definitely a cut below the obvious national title contenders. If you're of the belief VT can beat Clemson at home and possibly finish the regular season 11-1, and then beat FSU or Clemson (again) in the ACC title game, then 80-1 is a fair price to take. Still, you would be asking a lot of them to then potentially beat Alabama.

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14

South Florida Bulls

National title odds: 300-1 (opened 300-1)
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 9.7

Phil Steele

Strengths: Charlie Strong inherits a talented and experienced team in Tampa Bay. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a legitimate Heisman contender after posting more than 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns last year, and he will have a veteran offensive line in front of him. I also like the size, speed and athleticism on defense. The Bulls have my No. 21 defensive line and No. 30 set of defensive backs.

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CFB Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 14.

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South Florida Bulls

National title odds: 300-1 (opened 300-1)
Season win total: 10
FPI win total projection: 9.7

Phil Steele

Strengths: Charlie Strong inherits a talented and experienced team in Tampa Bay. Quarterback Quinton Flowers is a legitimate Heisman contender after posting more than 4,000 total yards and 40 touchdowns last year, and he will have a veteran offensive line in front of him. I also like the size, speed and athleticism on defense. The Bulls have my No. 21 defensive line and No. 30 set of defensive backs.

EDITOR'S PICKS

Betting previews for top 25 CFB teams
Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and Stanford Steve give comprehensive betting previews of the top 25 college football teams, including how to bet their title odds and over/unders.

Weaknesses: While I love Flowers at quarterback, there are question marks around who will replace the production of running back Marlon Mack, who averaged 6.8 yards per carry for 1,187 yards last year, and top wide receiver Rodney Adams, who was drafted by the Vikings. Strong will need playmakers to emerge.

Over/under (10): I have South Florida favored in all twelve games this year. If they slip up once, you still win with the over. If they get upset twice, you get your money back. They would have to lose three times for you to lose. I like the over on 10 wins.

National title odds (300-1): I think this team will go undefeated. While it sounds like there is value here at 300-1, South Florida plays too soft a schedule and is a Group of Five team that I do not think has a shot at making the playoffs. No play.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (10): Long story short, the Bulls are the team to beat in the American Athletic Conference. There is a good chance that they will be favored in every game they play. Their team runs through Flowers, who became the first player from any FBS program in the state of Florida to have 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in the same year. He rushed for 1,530 yards and averaged 7.7 yards per carry last year. I also like that they return nine defensive starters from a team that won 11 games last year. Need more? They don't have to play Memphis and they have a cupcake nonconference schedule. Oh, and I'm a fan of Charlie Strong. I'm drinking the Bulls Kool-Aid this year, and I think the Bulls are the non-Power 5 school to make the most noise in the country this year. Over 10 wins, for sure.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (10): It's hard to find more than two losses on this schedule, as this team has won 13 of its past 15 AAC games. Those two losses were Navy, who is not on 2017 schedule, and at Temple, the conference winner last year. USF gets a lesser Owls team at home this year. The nonconference schedule also lightens up, as Florida State is replaced by Illinois. While an upset loss is always possible, there are only three games in which USF has less than a 70 percent chance to win -- at Tulane, vs. Houston and at UCF. It seems like 10-2 is a worst-case scenario here. I'd lean over, but I'm also not really a fan of counting on 11-1 to cash.

National title odds (300-1): While the Bulls are obvious favorites to represent the Group of Five in the New Year's Six, they are not winning the national title. Go buy a Powerball ticket with that $5, instead.

 

[HacheMan]

ESPN INSIDER

Texas Longhorns

National title odds: 40-1 (opened 20-1)
Season win total: 8
FPI win total projection: 7.5

Phil Steele

Strengths: The Longhorns rank in my top 28 in all eight position categories, with top-15 units being the offensive line, receivers and defensive backs. This is a deep and talented team that is ranked No. 11 in the country on my experience chart.

Weaknesses: It will be tough to replace D'Onta Foreman and his 2,028 rushing yards, but I do expect Chris Warren III to top 1,000 this season, so that won't hurt as much as it would appear. The defensive line looks great getting off the bus, so they just have to play up to their talent level. There isn't a lot to criticize here.

Over/under (8): Eight is the number I would have put Texas at for the year. I have them as an underdog in three games and a pick 'em in two others. No play for me.

National title odds (40-1): Tom Herman inherits a very talented team, and while he was at Houston, he went a perfect 6-0 versus ranked teams. I do rate Texas as one of the five legitimate contenders in the Big 12. The odds are skewed here, though. Texas was just 5-7 last year and should be priced more in the 80-1 or 100-1 price range. While the Longhorns should be much improved, just making the playoff should be higher than 40-1, let alone winning the title.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (8): I love the Longhorns' new head coach, and with that said, I am already on record stating that the Horns will go to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum and beat USC in early September. There is plenty of talent for UT to be the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. It returns 17 starters, including possibly the best offensive lineman in America in Connor Williams and quarterback Shane Buechele (over 2,900 yards and 21 scores last year). You can expect the arrival of Herman to produce a way more cleaner offense, meaning fewer negative plays. I'll guarantee the turnover count gets cut down. What might be my favorite part of the Herman hire is that he brought defensive coordinator Todd Orlando with him. Orlando's defenses have been among the best in the country at creating turnovers. I expect huge things from the Longhorns this year, so give me the over.

National title odds (40-1): It's worth a future on winning the conference title and making the College Football Playoff, but maybe not winning the title.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (8): The world will be all over Texas this year. I know the Longhorns have recruited well, but I need to see it on the field. I don't think they will win at USC, at TCU or against Oklahoma, despite the recent close games with the Sooners. If Texas does drop all three of those games -- and FPI gives them less than a 35 percent chance to win in all three -- do you trust the Longhorns to win every other game to go 9-3? Remember, they have lost 6 of 8 to Kansas State and 4 of 6 to Oklahoma State. Plus, road games at Iowa State, Baylor and West Virginia are far from easy wins. Despite 17 returning starters, I see 8-4 as a best-case scenario here in Year 1 of the Tom Herman era with an eye toward bigger and better things in 2018. I'd lean under.

National title odds (40-1): As is the case with Michigan, Texas is a huge public team and the odds of making it through that schedule undefeated or even with just one loss are extremely slim. I'd need longer than 40-1 on a team that hasn't even made a bowl game the past two years to make it worth my while.

 

[hilltop]

Thanks.

 

[Gold_finger]

Coughlin thinks the Longhorns will upset USC at home? LOL

 

[HacheMan]

Kansas State Wildcats

National title odds: 80-1 (opened 30-1)
Season win total: 8
FPI win total projection: 7.5

Phil Steele

Strengths: Kansas State is strong at the line of scrimmage with my No. 30-rated offensive line and No. 19-rated defensive line. It has a veteran quarterback in Jesse Ertz and one of the Big 12's top secondaries. Its biggest strength is one most people overlook: my No. 1-rated special teams.

Weaknesses: The Wildcats' top returning running back, Justin Silmon, had just 464 yards last year. Additionally, they lose all three starters at linebacker, their top defensive lineman Jordan Willis and their top defensive back in Dante Barnett.

Over/under (8): I have Kansas State as a three-point underdog in two games, a pick 'em in one and favored in all of the rest. I think the Wildcats have a great shot at the Big 12 title and a double-digit-win season. I am for sure going with the over on this one.

National title odds (80-1): This is one of Bill Snyder's most veteran teams ever. It had 135 starts by underclassmen last year, the most ever under Snyder. The last time he had 14 returning starters was 2012, and that team rose to No. 2 in the polls before quarterback Collin Klein got injured. I think the Wildcats are a definite play at this price.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (8): When I watched this team open the season last year, I said to myself, "I'm all-in on the Purple Kats in 2017." And then through the course of this offseason, I've fallen in love with every Big 12 team.

Since Bill Snyder returned to the Manhattan in 2009, the Wildcats have won at least six games every season and posted just one losing record. Experience is there for this team. They return a very good group of wide receivers, featuring Byron Pringle and speedster Dominique Heath, along with Cal transfer Carlos Strickland. This has the makings of K-State's best offense in years, led by Ertz, who is coming off an impressive season in which he led the Wildcats to a 9-4 record while throwing for 1,755 yards and nine touchdowns and also running for 1,012 yards and 12 touchdowns. However, I would like to see him improve on his 57.6 completion percentage.

I'm not sure if KSU has enough to withstand its brutal start to the Big 12 schedule of Baylor, at Texas, TCU and Oklahoma. I like the Wildcats, but I'll stick with the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (8): FPI's projection for the Wildcats is 8-4, but that's assuming losses at Texas and Oklahoma State, along with home games against TCU and Oklahoma. I don't think any of those are foregone conclusions. K-State was very close to ending last year on a seven-game winning streak. Look at the losses last year -- opener on the road to Stanford, a one-point loss at WVU, Oklahoma and then Oklahoma State in a game the Wildcats were leading late. With Ertz and a solid offensive line back, along with a good front four and secondary, I think the Cats are underrated, and 8-4 is a worst-case scenario. I'd be on the over here.

National title odds (80-1): K-State can't win the national title, but I would be very interested on taking the Wildcats at 7-1 to win the Big 12 title.

 

[HacheMan]

Louisville Cardinals

National title odds: 30-1 (opened 10-1)
Season win total: 9.5
FPI win total projection: 8.6

Phil Steele

Strengths: The Cardinals return Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson, so that is a pretty good place to start. The defense improved, allowing just 322 yards per game and 23.8 points per game. The Cardinals have seven starters back on defense and look even stronger with each unit ranking in my top 30 units in the country.

Weaknesses: Jackson has only three other starters back on offense, as they lose their top rusher, top three receivers and three starting offensive linemen.

Over/under (9.5): The Cardinals have a very manageable schedule, which I rate only the 62nd-toughest in the country. I only have them as a underdog in three games -- Clemson, at North Carolina State and at Florida State. The road trip to Kentucky is a question mark, as well, so I will lean with the under.

National title odds (30-1): Last year, the Cardinals averaged 49.6 points per game in the first 10 games, but just 19 points per game in their past three. Teams seemed to catch up to their offense. They have to get past both Florida State and Clemson to get to the ACC title game, and while the odds are high, I do not see them making the playoffs.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (9.5): After accounting for 51 touchdowns last year, it's amazing how the conversation is so different about Lamar Jackson. I am of the thinking that we will see an improved Jackson, with a jump just like what we saw from Year 1 to Year 2. The issue is how many new faces he will be throwing to on the offense. He lost his top three pass catchers, who combined to haul in 131 balls. The top returning receiver, Jaylen Smith, caught 27 passes. Another issue with the Cardinals was how they stumbled into the end of the season, losing three straight games, including games where they scored 10 points at Houston and nine points against LSU. At North Carolina, Clemson, at North Carolina State, at Florida State and at Kentucky all look to me like losable games. Factor in the roster turnover, and there might even be another slip up along the way. Under, please.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9.5): I was the conductor of the Louisville bandwagon last year, but I have some doubts this year. In retrospect, it's pretty amazing the Cards had the season that they did and that Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy behind that offensive line. Is that line any better? We'll find out early, as Louisville hosts Clemson, which has the best defensive line in the country, in Week 3. Then, there are more tests at Florida State and at NC State. FPI has Louisville at 9-3. The road games at UNC and NC State are the keys to whether 9-3 or 10-2 is the Cards' final record. Lose one, and 9-3 would probably be the best-case scenario. I'm on the under here. I just can't get the vision of how poorly Louisville finished off the 2016 slate out of my head, and there are too many tests for this team in 2017.

National title odds (30-1): It's hard to reach the ACC title game which sharing the ACC Atlantic with Clemson and Florida State. Last year, I was interested. At 30-1 this year, I will pass.

 

[HacheMan]

With college football season on the horizon, ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica -- combine to give you betting previews of the top 25 teams, according to the ESPN College Football Rankings. They break down each team's strengths and weaknesses, along with season win total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.


Georgia Bulldogs

National title odds: 25-1 (opened 30-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 8.4

Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER

Strengths: Nick Chubb and Sony Michel headline my No. 2-rated group of running backs in the country, and with nine starters returning on defense, that unit ranks in my top 20 nationally.

Weaknesses: The offensive line wasn't good last year and remains a question mark. The Bulldogs were No. 109 on special teams last season.

Over/under (8.5): The Bulldogs have to face Notre Dame, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech all on the road and will be an underdog in at least four games this season. I'll take the under.

National title odds (25-1): When you account for the schedule that I listed above and the fact that I like the under, I'll pass on these odds.

'Stanford Steve' Coughlin

O/U (8.5): I don't know if there's a more important nonconference road game for a team than when Georgia travels to South Bend to play the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame on Sept. 9. That game sticks out to me because we will truly get to see if quarterback Jacob Eason has improved, and how he will handle an unfriendly atmosphere at night -- and you can bet he will be feeling pressure to score points. The Dawgs will then take on five of their six opponents from the SEC East in five straight games starting Sept. 30 in Knoxville and ending Nov. 4 vs. the South Carolina Gamecocks. It feels to me the improvement from Eason will be less than ideal from what the fans in Athens are hoping for, strictly because it's a lot harder to get better when you are facing SEC defensive speed week in and out.

Chris Fallica

O/U (8.5): Things couldn't have gone any better on the recruiting trail for Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs when Nick Chubb and Sony Michel decided to return to Athens. Eason should take a step forward in 2017 and all but four starters from the bowl game will return. Couple that with freshmen who could be impact contributors immediately on the offensive line and overall improvement defensively in the second year under Smart, and you have a very intriguing team for 2017.

UGA has road games early in the season with Notre Dame and Tennessee, but both of them will be breaking in new quarterbacks with coaches who will be under pressure to win this year. Georgia also avoids Alabama and LSU from the SEC West. Next year might be the year to circle in Athens, but given the state of the SEC -- and specifically the SEC East right now -- it wouldn't shock me if UGA arrives a year ahead of schedule. They'll win every home game -- that's six wins. Need two more to push. Can we find them between Florida in Jacksonville, at Tennessee, at Notre Dame, at Vanderbilt, at Auburn and at Georgia Tech? I'd play the over here.

National title odds (25-1): We know the SEC champ will be in the playoff, and its more than likely the East will be decided in a coin-flip game in Jacksonville vs. the Gators. As mentioned above, its more likely 2018 is the Bulldogs' year to challenge for the national title, but at 25-1 they are worth a few bucks.

 

[doglover]

Great stuff!! Thanks - appreciate your posts for preseason prep!

 

[HacheMan]

Miami Hurricanes

National title odds: 60-1 (opened 30-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 9.2

Phil Steele

Strengths: The defensive front seven is one of the best in the country. Last season their starting linebackers were all true freshmen, and now they have experience. I rate their defensive line fourth best in the country. The Hurricanes also have my No. 14-rated offensive line, return their 1,000-yard rusher in Mark Walton and top wide receiver in Ahmmon Richards. They also have my No. 15 special-teams squad.


Weaknesses: With Brad Kaaya leaving early for the NFL, the quarterback position is the biggest question mark on the team. While not really a weakness, the Hurricanes do lose three starting defensive backs.

Over/under (9): I have Miami as my No. 2 surprise team, or non-top-10 team that I think can make the playoffs. I have the Hurricanes an underdog in only one game, so you know I am going with the over.

National title odds (60-1): While Miami does have to face Florida State during the regular season, the Hurricanes are my favorite to win the Coastal Division. That would put them in the ACC title game and one step from making the playoff. I feel they should be priced closer to 20-1, so there is a lot of value here.

'Stanford Steve' Coughlin

Over/under (9): Ah, the beauty of the ACC Coastal Division. If you ranked the teams in the ACC Atlantic Division and put the Canes in there, you probably would rank them fourth. But they are in the Coastal Division, and I am all-in on the Hurricanes this year.

The linebacker corps are the reason I am so high on this team with the three true sophomores of Shaquille Quarterman, Michael Pinckney and Zach McCloud. They were the first true freshman trio to start at "The U" in the history of the program. Their presence saw the defense improve to fifth in the country in tackles for loss after being 106th the year prior; most importantly they rose from 77th to 12th in points allowed. The weight of the offense will fall on standout running back Mark Walton, who rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored 14 touchdowns last season. I am not worried about the QB position and have full trust in Richt when it comes to those kind of decisions.

I am picking Miami to be one of the four College Football Playoff teams this year.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9): Quarterback worries are the only thing keeping this from being a very strong over. Are there three other losses outside the Florida State game? I don't think so -- Notre Dame and Virginia Tech are in Miami. The toughest league road games are at North Carolina and Pitt, each of which will be breaking in a new quarterback and other key skill positions this year. Miami's defense should be among the best in the country, and if either N'Kosi Perry or Malik Rosier emerges as a legit QB, along with RB Mark Walton and WR Ahmmon Richards, it looks like 10-2 is about where the Canes will be. Hard seeing less than 9-3, and 8-4 would certainly be viewed as a disappointing season.

It will be hard to expect the Canes to go to Tallahassee and win in Week 3, but the key will be a favorable schedule stretch after that game. And after a season of breaking in a new quarterback, a rematch in the ACC title game would be something that's likely welcomed by Miami.

CFB Playoff odds (60-1): At 60-1, I think it's worth taking a shot. There's a chance Miami could lose in Tallahassee and beat FSU in the ACC title game rematch, or beat Clemson in the ACC title game. And a 12-1 Miami as ACC champ after a win over either Clemson or Florida State would absolutely be in the playoff and two games away from cashing at a huge number.

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 22.


Stanford Cardinal

National title odds: 50-1 (opened 60-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 9.1

Phil Steele

Strengths: Stanford has a legitimate top-10 defense led by my No. 2-rated linebackers and No. 4-rated defensive backs in the country. Bryce Love will be running behind my No. 16-rated offensive line.

Weaknesses: Quarterback Keller Chryst missed all of spring and most of the summer and the Cardinal need him to be 100 percent healthy. The receiving corps has some talent, but doesn't rank in my top 40 units in the country.

Over/under (8.5): Stanford has to play USC, Utah and Washington State all on the road and hosts Washington. While those are tough tests, the Cardinal are a true underdog in only one game and coach David Shaw always has this team playing up to its potential. I like the over.

National title odds (50-1): Even if the Cardinal lose to USC early, they get Washington at home and a win there likely puts them in the Pac-12 title game. That would be one step from the College Football Playoff. With a top-10 defense, coach Shaw and a healthy quarterback in Chryst, they have a decent shot at the playoff and should be priced closer to 20-1. They're a solid play at 50-1.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (8.5): How about starting your season in Australia and then playing an in-state rival who might be the best team in your league -- that's how Stanford starts its season in 2017. The Cardinal then play at San Diego State, who will treat the game as their Super Bowl -- a chance for a smaller school to take down a big-name, in-state powerhouse they haven't played in forever. Then follow that up with a game at home against another California rival, UCLA, which wants to beat Stanford in the worst way, because the Bruins haven't in a long time. That's all in just the first four games, and we haven't even talked about the trips to the Cardinal's house of horrors in Utah and to Pullman to face a Washington State team that embarrassed them last season.

No one seems to know who the QB will be to start the season, which is never a good thing for a team when you have so many important games early. I'm going with the under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (8.5): I love Stanford this year. The Cardinal will be an underdog at USC -- and Stanford has beaten the Trojans seven of the past nine meetings -- and could be favored in every other game. Love is a good back -- as he showed in the bowl game. Even if Chryst isn't ready to start the year at QB, I get the sense Stanford will be just fine going with K.J. Costello. There's so much focus on the losses of the star names -- Christian McCaffrey and Solomon Thomas -- that people forget that everybody else is back. Their line play on both sides of the ball is exceptional. FPI has them at 9-3, but I see that as worst case. The other road games after USC are SDSU, Utah, Oregon State and Washington State. Washington and Notre Dame visit Stanford. Only once since 2010 have the Cardinal failed to win nine regular-season games. Play the over with confidence.

National title odds: At 50-1, Stanford is a very interesting team. The fact the Cardinal get Washington at home is huge. It allows them a loss somewhere along the way, as long as they beat the Huskies on Nov. 10. And if the Cardinal are sitting there on selection day at 12-1 with wins over Washington, Notre Dame and USC in their final four games of the year, they are in the playoff and 50-1 becomes very live.

 

[HacheMan]

Florida Gators

National title odds: 60-1 (opened 40-1)
Season win total: 8.5
FPI win total projection: 7.9

Phil Steele

Strengths: The Gators have one of the best offensive lines in the SEC, their defense is always a strength and they have the best set of skill players that they have had in years. They also have my No. 3-rated special teams in the country.

Weaknesses: The only two units that do not rank in my top 25 are the linebackers, which log in at No. 27, and quarterbacks. Both are still in decent shape. The past two years Florida has lost its starting quarterback to injury in the first half of the season, but the Gators have three capable candidates this year.

Over/under (8.5): Florida is a very talented team and has a great schedule. Since the LSU game was moved last season, the Gators now get that game at home. They have only three true road games this season and those are at Kentucky, Missouri, and South Carolina. The Gators get Michigan in Week 1, which is when you want to play an inexperienced team, and have beaten Georgia in Jacksonville the past three seasons. They are one of my favorite over plays.

National title odds (60-1): My surprise teams in the magazine are non-top 10 teams that I think can win the national title. Washington was my No. 1 surprise team last year and went from 7-6 to making the playoff. Florida is my No. 1 surprise team this year and should be priced at closer to 15-1, so there is a lot of value here.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

O/U (8.5): While a lot of people are holding out on their opinion of the Gators until Jim McElwain announces his QB, I am willing to trust the head coach with that decision. Whether it be Feleipe Franks or Malik Zaire behind center, there is no doubt they will be an upgrade to the position from what the Gators ended with each of the past two seasons. There is also enough time for the staff to adjust the roster for the opening tilt vs. Michigan after the suspensions McElwain announced in early August.

The advantage of only having to play three true road games is enormous to me. The roster is deep with experience, as players got a chance to step up due to how many injuries they endured last season on both sides of the ball. There are still plenty of restless Gators fans out there, seeing how the boys from Gainesville have had issues putting the ball in the end zone (second to last in SEC with 35 TDs scored last season) -- and McElwain was brought in to improve the team on offense.

All those worries should be put to bed, and expect the Gators to be profoundly better offensively this year. I do expect Florida to return to Atlanta to play in a third straight SEC title game. And I like them to therefore go over 8.5 wins.

Chris Fallica

O/U (8.5): The Gators have only three true road games, but they could lose any of them -- at Kentucky, Missouri and South Carolina -- given recent struggles with those teams. And there is also the neutral site games with Michigan and Georgia. The QB situation should be better than last year, whether it's Zaire or Franks who wins the job.

But we have very little sample size from Zaire and even less from Franks. Whomever takes the snaps should have the best group of receivers the Gators have had in awhile. It's a testament to McElwain that this team has reached the SEC title game the past two seasons with the offensive struggles it has had since Will Grier's departure.

But the defense must replace a lot on that side of the ball. This is a fairly divisive team -- some people think the Gators will struggle while some think they are the best team in the East and can challenge for the SEC title. I'd pass here on the total as I can see either 9-3 or 8-4 as the most likely result for the Gators.

Title odds (60-1): Florida has shown the past couple of years that it's a cut below national title winners and past CFP participants Alabama and Florida State. I have a tough time thinking in the span of a season that both Alabama and FSU have regressed that much and Florida has improved to that level to make the Gators a serious national title contender.

 

[HacheMan]

with season win total bets and national title odds.

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 23.


Michigan Wolverines

National title odds: 20-1 (opened 12-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 8.4

Phil Steele

Strengths: Usually when a team has just five returning starters as Michigan does and ranks No. 127 on my experience chart, it would have very few units ranked in my top position groups. Still, Michigan ranks in all eight, showing the quality talent that coach Jim Harbaugh has been bringing in over the past few years. The highest-rated unit is the defensive line, which is led by Rashan Gary and Maurice Hurst. Despite losing all four starters, I rate them the No. 9 defensive line in the country. That unit will try to repeat last year's pressure when they tallied 46.0 sacks, fifth highest in the country.

Weaknesses: Each unit has talent, but the secondary has zero returning starters, and the receiving corps likely will be led by true freshmen. At the most important position, Wilton Speight will have to improve to hold off hard-charging Brandon Peters as the starting quarterback.

Over/under (9): Last year's three losses were by a combined five points, but this year's schedule is rugged. They open with a more experienced Florida team in Arlington, and young teams usually take a week or two to get going. The Wolverines face Penn State on the road a week after traveling to Indiana, and Penn State comes in off of a bye, likely with a whiteout crowd. Michigan also faces Wisconsin on the road the week before playing Ohio State. It gets Ohio State at home but will be a 'dog in that game. I would set the total at nine, but if I had to lean one way, I would go with the under.

National title odds (20-1): Simply put, it is a young team with landmines on the schedule. There's no value at these odds, so I would say no play.

'Stanford Steve' Coughlin

Over/under (9): Where do we start with the Wolverines? It just seems that you either hate them or you love them. There is the camp that says Harbaugh really needs to win something already (0-2 vs. Ohio State), and then there is the crowd that says, "Well, he's 20-6." I tend to lean toward the feeling that everyone should remain calm in Ann Arbor. He has won 20 games with largely below-average talent at the quarterback position. The defense returns one starter, which makes a lot of people skeptical, but not me. Defensive coordinator Don Brown is a fantastic coach, and I know there is serious talent in this youth for him to coach. For one, the former No. 1-ranked player in the country coming out of high school, defensive lineman Rashan Gary, will be moving outside to defensive end this year and is a force. So, I will say Michigan beats Ohio State this year, but it also loses a couple of games earlier in the year. Under.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9): After losing 10 starters to the draft, this could be a "take one step back to take three forward next year" type of season for Michigan, at least in terms of record. A 9-3 season is probably about right, with the Florida game right out of the gate as a huge swing game. Take note that the Wolverines are favored against the Gators in that one. If you assume losses at Penn State, at Wisconsin and against Ohio State, then your bet will be decided on opening weekend. I'll say this, though -- it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Michigan split those four games and finish 10-2. The defensive line should be very good, and my hunch is that a lot of the young skill recruited by Harbaugh will emerge this year. I don't think a Harbaugh-coached team will lose all four of those games, so I see 9-3 as a worst case. I think the over is worth a small play.

National title odds (20-1): While I do think the Wolverines are a little underrated at the start of this season, I don't see them as true national title contenders. But given the opportunity to start and finish the season with marquee wins, the name power of Michigan and the fact the Big Ten will have a team in the playoff, it's not crazy to think the Wolverines could get there. Michigan is one of those brand teams whose odds will always be shorter than it should be, so while I wouldn't play them at 20-1, I know many will.

 

[HacheMan]

Odds from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 23.


LSU Tigers

National title odds: 15-1 (opened 12-1)
Season win total: 9
FPI win total projection: 8.3

Phil Steele

Strengths: Running back Derrius Guice is running behind my No. 4-rated offensive line in the country. Despite only five returning starters on defense, the Tigers rank in my top 15 in all three areas (defensive line, linebacker, defensive back) and have a top-10 defense.

Weaknesses: LSU was just No. 54 in my special teams rankings last year. Several of my receiver write-ups for other teams say, "and they add LSU transfer," so a lot of talent has left in the past two years from that spot and the Tigers graduate three of the top four wide receivers from 2016.

Over/under (9): With the move of the Florida game last year, LSU will play five true SEC road games and I cannot recall any other team ever doing that. I have them as a 'dog in three games so my number would be nine, but facing the toughest schedule in the country, maybe they will suffer some attrition and I will lean with the under.

National title odds (15-1): I have the Tigers coming in third in their own division so I would have put the odds closer to 25-1 or 30-1, making this a no play.

"Stanford Steve" Coughlin

Over/under (9): If you have read any of my writing or listened to our podcasts (Behind the Bets with Chris Fallica) you know that my favorite setting, surroundings and fan base in all of college football have to do with the LSU football program. I'm still in disbelief as to what transpired in the time that Leonard Fournette was on campus in Baton Rouge. So many ups, but more important way too many downs. And the problem with the disappointing things that happened was that they were on the biggest possible stage. Whether it was the Tigers' awful start to the season at Lambeau Field last year or the past two offensive efforts against Alabama, they just have been flat-out hard to watch. So, when I get to this year's team, I just can't put my eggs in that basket even though it's so tempting because there is so much to like with the team, the changes, the home-field advantage. But I will pass and be more than willing to congratulate them if they were to exceed expectations. You know I love you Baton Rouge. Under nine wins for me.

Chris Fallica

Over/under (9): The last time LSU won 10 games in the regular season came in 2012. In the past four years, LSU has won nine, eight, eight and seven regular-season games, winning the final game each time. So the under was already in the bag headed into the final weekend. LSU is just 9-9 vs. the SEC West the past three years and 19-13 in SEC play the past four. Talent though, has never been an issue in Baton Rouge. LSU was a different team under Ed Orgeron and coupled with new offensive coordinator Matt Canada, this could be the season the LSU offense emerges from the dark ages and makes this a complete team. Leonard Fournette is gone, but Derrius Guice is more than talented enough to put up huge numbers. It's fair to assume Matt Canada will improve Danny Etling. And we know Dave Aranda will shape the Tigers' defense into one of the best units in the country. Despite all of LSU's deficiencies this year, the Tigers lost just 10-0 to Alabama in Baton Rouge -- and that was with QB issues galore. I know LSU has to go to Tuscaloosa this year, but remember, in Alabama's past six regular-season losses, four have come at home, including to LSU in 2011. The Tigers have to go to Florida, Ole Miss and Tennessee as well, but each of those teams have their own issues. LSU was a pick of many to win the national title in 2016. Maybe the Tigers were just a year too early. I think they are 11-1 or 10-2.

National title odds (15-1): Many can't get past those five SEC road games. But two of those are at probably the two weakest teams in the West and Tennessee, which is a 50-50 game, as is the game at Florida. I think it's coming down to the game at Alabama, and if the LSU defense can give Bama as much trouble as it did last year, and the offense improves the way it should with Canada, one could view it as getting 15-1 on LSU beating Alabama, because should the Tigers do that, their price will plummet. I liked it better at 20-1, but it's still a pretty good value.