Betting NFL 6-Point Teasers?

[talkpoker2]

Got this from a email newsletter yesterday.

A SYSTEM FOR BETTING SIX POINT TEASERS

The following is the basic teaser strategy used by professional sportsbettors.
We are discussing the standard six point two team teaser. Obviously the fewer
points that two teams are expected to score, the more valuable the six point
movement in the line becomes.

For the most part, because of the higher totals in college football games,
betting teasers in college football is not advisable.

In the NFL however, there is a standard teaser system that has been shown
to show a long term profit. And in certain cases make the EV
on the two-team six point teaser higher than betting the teams straight.

The numbers you want to look for in betting NFL Teasers are underdogs plus
1 1/2 or 2 1/2 and favorites minus 7 1/2 or 8 1/2. When you tease these
underdogs up six points, or favorites down six points, you cross the most
critical numbers in the NFL 3, 4, 6 7, and 2 or 8. This makes these
special teasers a positive expectation play just from a numbers perspective.

Today Bookmakers would rather make a favorite in a game 9 instead of
7 1.2 or 8 1/2, just to stop the sharp teaser players, so keep that
in mind when you see a game open 9, the favorite could very likely been
padded a point to a point or more, If you like the dog, it is probably an
even strong play than you think.

Lastly, any of these standard teaser theory plays are stronger in an
NFL game with a total of say 40, than a game with a total of 50, so
be willing to bet more on the games with low totals if you use this
system.

So bottom line, look for spots where teams you like anyway fit
into this six point teaser system. You will make more money in the
long run teasing these plays.

no linkks allowed.

Here is my question

Do you guys that play Teasers agree with this guy? If so do you think
just teasing the dogs up would be stronger than teasing favor ites down,
being that books naturally shade favorites anyway?


I am going to post my plays under this system for a few weeks and see how it does.
Week One 6 Point Teasers

Bengals +7 1/2 Broncos -1 1/2

 

[talkpoker2]

Ok 1 and 0 in week one, let's see if we can find a couple more next week.

 

[bwhitey14]

Not sure who wrote you this email, but this isn't some sudden revelation. It always looks better finding teams that you can push over key numbers, but the idea that long-term winning strategies can be derived from 6 pt teasers is silly imo. Teasers are what they are: -EV

 

[eventhorizon]

This has been talked about for some time. 6 pt team teasers used to be even-money and to tease down two 6 pt fav's paid better than a two team money-line parlay with the same teams. They have raised the price on 2 team teasers to close the gape in value. The limits on teasers are smaller than straight bets so people betting big money are not interested in it.

 

[talkpoker2]

Actually I don't think you would ever tease from -6 down to zero or across the number zero,
since and NFL game will virtually never end on zero, that is a completely wasted number.
this system is specific, to 1 1/2 and 2 1/2 point dogs up, 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 point favorites down.
Laying -110 on the 6-point 2-teamers

 

[Dan2330]

Common sense on most of this stuff. I recall seeing a few years ago but can't remember the total % off hand of all NFL games that end on a 3, 4, or 7- it was a good %

 

[rolltide]

been doing this for years as the numbers are undeniable....dogs 1.5-2.5, home favs 7.5-8.5

problem with your article is that it just says favs of 7.5-8.5 which is completely wrong. while home favs in that range cover teasers at 80% away teams do so at just 67.6% historically which makes them one of the worst ranges to tease down as you can just randomly pick any team and hit them at 69% on a 6-point teaser

 

[rolltide]

Common sense on most of this stuff. I recall seeing a few years ago but can't remember the total % off hand of all NFL games that end on a 3, 4, or 7- it was a good %

3, 4, 6, 7 are 4 of the 5 most popular final margins in NFL (10 is #3). nearly 1/3 of all games end on one of those 4 single-digit numbers

 

[talkpoker2]

Teaser System Season 1- 0

Week Two
Cardinals + 7 1/2 with Bills + 7 1/2

looking for a couple more as numbers move.

 

[ibex]

Teaser System Season 1- 0

Week Two
Cardinals + 7 1/2 with Bills + 7 1/2

looking for a couple more as numbers move.

So how does this work if there are more than 2 teams that can be teased? Say you had three teams that meet the criterion, do you bet every combo, pick and choose the 'best' etc? If there were would be 3 combos, if 4 teams there would be 6 combos and so on. This could get expensive. And did you actually make this bet with a book? My bookie doesn't give that option until late.

 

[ibex]

been doing this for years as the numbers are undeniable....dogs 1.5-2.5, home favs 7.5-8.5

problem with your article is that it just says favs of 7.5-8.5 which is completely wrong. while home favs in that range cover teasers at 80% away teams do so at just 67.6% historically which makes them one of the worst ranges to tease down as you can just randomly pick any team and hit them at 69% on a 6-point teaser

So a two team home fav 6pt teaser would historically pay out at a rate of 64% - that's pretty good. Whats a teased dog pay out at?

 

[Kaveman]

^^I don't have the figures in front of me, but don't confuse the odds of what one team will do with the percentage of what both have to do to hit it, which will obviously be far lower.

 

[talkpoker2]

Ok guys, the math is a little bit steep, but if you are interested get Stanford Wongs (John Fergson) book on sportsbetting as he is the orgiantor of the Wong Teaser system. When is wrote the book you could bet six point 2-teamers at even money, the wise guys crushed books everywhere using the system at even money. That's why in Vegas it is 11 to 10 and 12 to 10 now and some joints won;t book six point 2-teamers at all. There are quite a few offshore outs that book them at 11 to 10, and there are still some locals out there who get nothing but sucker action putting them up at even money. I used to have several, now I have just one.

So at even money, each leg has to hit at just over 70% to make the teaser a better bet than the straight bet. when you lay 11 to 10 each leg has to hit at a little over 73% to be better than a straight bet. As rolltide points out, historically, underdogs and home favs have both hit at a higher percentage than those with the six points, making those 2-teamer teasers a positive expectation bet.

As the number in the NFL continues to get sharper and sharper, the value of the six points gets stronger and stronger. Here is the secret, find a local dinosaur that still books 2-teamers at even money, and crush hime, or find one of the offshores that will take them at 11 to 10 and grind out a profit. Of course at any higher vig than 11 to 10 they become a negative expectation play.

I am going to continue to post plays into the system here, focusing on home favs and underdogs, and at the end of the year, we will see how we do?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Talkpower, I wish I had locals giving me even money on 6 point teasers.......one local doesn't even do teasers, just parlays & str wagers but he's got the best lines for dogs......Wisconsin vs LSU, he had Wisconsin +6 while everyone else had +3.5 or +4.........

Plenty of middle opportunities with locals.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

6-pt teasers, done correctly, have crushed Vegas in the last two seasons. This is also why 5D and others have shaded the favorite up to -9 with +vig versus leaving it at 7. The OP's article touched on this.

IMO a slight home dog teased up or a slight home fav teased across 0 to +3.5 is the best play.

For bragging rights on book outs, I have an out-of-state acct where the book sets the wknd football lines on Friday and then they don't move. Stale lines. Crazy.

 

[paulfmf]

There used to someone who posted all the "wongs" and a couple of others: Akilies-I may be wrong on the spelling. Not sure why he quit posting.

If there's more than 2 you just do a round robin.

 

[talkpoker2]

Respect your opinion Driver, but I don't think most smarts tease to, or across zero. Games don't fall zero so you are giving up one on the numbers that can fall. Instead of having a 6 point teaser, you actually have a five point teaser. The system is really pretty specific,
1 1/2 and 2 1/2 point dogs up, 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 point favorites down,

 

[phlew]

The only way Ive been successful with betting on NFL is with teasers. I don't do just two teams though I go for 5 to 8 teams 7 pt tease. Even if you just want to throw 20 or 30 bucks on it.. the payout is well worth it. If the bears would have won I woulda hit all three teasers I played and won 700. I ended up losing like 60 bucks but I think the risk is well worth the reward. I started doing this halfway through the season and with me being down about 400 I ended up winning about 2000. maybe I just got lucky but it worked. So far im up after week one.

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

Respect your opinion Driver, but I don't think most smarts tease to, or across zero. Games don't fall zero so you are giving up one on the numbers that can fall. Instead of having a 6 point teaser, you actually have a five point teaser. The system is really pretty specific,
1 1/2 and 2 1/2 point dogs up, 7 1/2 and 8 1/2 point favorites down,

Biggest myth in sports gambling is to not tease through 0.


Cossing zero is fine. Getting across key numbers while crossing zero is what is important.

I'll let Sharp Football Analysis's writeup from a few years ago prove my point.

http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/92145.aspx

One key paragraph:

The best 6 point teaser is teasing RIGHT ACROSS ZERO with a -3.5 or -4 point favorite and making that team a +2 or +2.5 point dog. It's hit 10% more than taking a -2.5 or -3 point favorite and making them a +3 or +3.5 point dog. Typically, you would think "why would I want to tease to +2.5? Wouldn't I want to make sure it was at +3? And you would think so, but based on historical lines, you would be wrong.

 

[talkpoker2]

Biggest myth in sports gambling is to not tease through 0.
Cossing zero is fine. Getting across key numbers while crossing zero is what is important.


Again not saying that this author is wrong, but when you look at it, it seems to be misguided. When you tease from -2 1/2 to + 3 1/2 you only cross one key number the +3, you cross -2 -1, 0 +1, +2 +3. The zero is completley worthless, can't fall there and if the game does end at zero you are about 50/50 to blow the teaser in overtime. the 2's are almost worthless, and the 1's, are about the 6th most frequent number to fall, of course the +3 is good.

On the other hand,

When you tease from +2 1/2 up to +8 1/2, you cross 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8......that's 4 of the most critical numbers 3, 4, 6, and 7, with 8 also being a live number. Me, I am going to take the four live numbers working for me in my teaser, instead of the one live number in yours.

Hey but what do I know? I might have it all Wong (pun intended)