Betting guide for the 149th Belmont Stakes
Chris FallicaLane Gold
ESPN INSIDER
6/8/17
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
Neither the Derby (Always Dreaming) nor Preakness (Cloud Computing) winner is running in Saturday's Belmont, but that doesn't mean we're sitting on the sidelines. It's actually a great betting race that I believe can be won by eight of the 12 horses.
After a profitable Preakness, here is my betting guide for the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1. Twisted Tom (Trainer: Chad Brown, jockey: Javier Castellano); morning line: 20-1
I expect him to be involved early and get a call or two before fading. His figures are really light and this is a massive step-up in class. On the bright side, Javier Castellano's five exacta finishes with horses greater than 8-1 odds are second only to Pat Day, who has seven. However, I don't see Javier posting a sixth exacta finish with a price horse here, especially as I believe he'll be under the gun from the inside at this distance.
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2. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz); ML 6-1
Trained by Todd Pletcher? Won the Tampa Bay Derby? Finished sixth in the Derby? Skipped the Preakness? All check marks. All Tapwrit has to do to complete the Destin 2016 comparison checklist is run huge Saturday at Belmont. And all signs point to him doing just that.
He's quite comfortable on, just off or well off the pace and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) circuit -- especially Belmont and Saratoga -- is Todd Pletcher's playground. He's nearly pulled some huge upsets with price horses here -- just missing with Destin last year at 8-1, Commissioner in 2014 at 28-1 and Stay Thirsty at 16-1 in 2011. Tapwrit won't be in the double digits but he should still be at least the third choice and that should play quite nicely in the exotics. As are many of the horses who were outside in the slop on Derby day, he's on the short list of contenders. I believe no horse benefits more from the scratch of Classic Empire and the question of Epicharis' condition more than Tapwrit. His price will suffer, but his chances will improve dramatically.
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza); ML 8-1
He reminds me a little bit of 2010 Belmont Stakes champion Drosselmeyer in the sense that he's a grinder. Not the fastest horse, not the quickest turn of foot, but one that there's little doubt can stay for 1.5 miles. He looked to be in a good spot in the Derby, but then as we all later realized, outside was not the place to be -- and the wide trip from post 18 contributed to him backing up to ninth. The last time Victor Espinoza rode in this race, he emerged a Triple Crown winner. I'd expect him to be just off the lead, as he's proven he doesn't need it to win, and a much better effort than what happened in Louisville. I give him a shot at pulling the big upset.
4. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado); ML 15-1
Nine of the last 18 Belmont Stakes have been won by horses which ran in the Kentucky Derby and then rested for five weeks prior to the Belmont. Robby Albarado has done pretty well in this race, riding Medal Count to a third-place finish at 25-1, Denis of Cork to a second-place finish at 7-1 and just missing with Curlin in 2007. Dale Romans has run eight horses in the Belmont and half of them have finished third -- with three of those four coming at odds of at least 17-1. There are lots of good angles to play with here and you get a horse who now owns the top Beyer Figure in the field -- 102 in the Gotham -- with Classic Empire scratched. Will lightning strike twice for Bobby Flay? Last year he purchased a share of Creator prior to the Belmont. And this week he purchased a share of J Boys Echo. He's another that isn't impossible and worth inclusion in all tri spots given this race's recent propensity to spring an upset.
5. Hollywood Handsome (Dallas Stewart/Florent Geroux); ML 30-1
Nobody loves sending his one-run closers to Belmont more than Dallas Stewart. And the next one that hits the board will be the first. Seeking the Soul and Forever D'Oro were last and next-to-last last year and Tale of Verve was seventh in 2015. Commanding Curve was last in 2014 and Golden Soul finished ninth in 2013. Hollywood Handsome was life and death to win a six-horse N1X at Churchill Downs three weeks ago and I can't make a case for him to even hit the board here.
6. Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz Jr.); ML 5-1
After the scratch of Classic Empire, he's the only of the Belmont entrants to run in all three Triple Crown races. There have been 11 horses that have run in the Belmont after finishing second in the Derby at greater than 20-1. Often many of them were closers who should love the added distance in the Belmont and be very dangerous, but none of those 11 horses won the Belmont and only Bluegrass Cat in 2006 finished in the money. The last "buzz" horse to fit this profile was Commanding Curve who was bet down to 9-1 in 2014 and didn't beat a single horse.
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be seeking consecutive Belmont wins for the first time since Laffit Pincay Jr. on Caveat and Swale in 1983-84. Lookin At Lee has a very similar running style to Creator and while Creator did win last year, deep closers are not typically the way to go in this race. Trainer Steve Asmussen has said all along this horse wants added ground, so this race should be right in his wheelhouse, but I don't like the odds of the same jockey/trainer combo winning the Belmont in consecutive years with a dead closer. He can win, but he isn't great value. I'll use underneath and if he beats me, he beats me.
7. Irish Way Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh); ML 7-2
With the scratch of Classic Empire, he's the likely favorite and could be just the fourth time in the history of the race the favorite has been 3-1 or longer. Graham Motion hasn't run a horse in the Belmont since Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished sixth as the favorite in 2011. Like Gormley, he was stuck outside and folded up like a cheap suit when the real running began in Louisville. The only other time he threw in a clunker -- in the Fountain of Youth after a dominant win in the Holy Bull -- he rebounded with an emphatic win in the Wood Memorial. His daddy (Curlin) finished second to Rags to Riches in the Belmont and certainly had no distance limitations.
Favoritism hasn't been kind in this race lately, as American Pharoah is the only favorite in the last 11 years to win the Belmont and six of the last nine ran completely out of the money. In the Derby, I felt as if Irish War Cry was a safe key horse in the exotics and I feel that way again this week. I'd expect him to bounce back and have a big say in the outcome - almost in the same way Union Rags did a few years back. Jockey Rajiv Maragh has been on six horses that were top-four betting choices in a Triple Crown race - and they all pretty much ran to the board (10th, fourth, fourth, sixth, third and fifth) except for Irish War Cry in the Derby.
8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill); ML 12-1
Trainer Kenny McPeek pulled one of biggest upsets ever with Sarava at 70-1 in 2002, so this wouldn't be nearly as much of a shocker. Six of the last nine Belmont winners have had at least 11-1 odds, and seven of the last nine were won by a horse which was the fifth choice or worse in the wagering. He -- and a few others -- certainly fit that mold here and are quite attractive. He'll be closing into what should be a pretty solid pace and while I don't like him as much as Patch or Lookin At Lee, I will use him on my pick fours and throughout the trifecta. This is a great betting race and the way I will approach it is to use a lot of horses in the multi-race wagers and then key potentially Irish War Cry with a bunch; Senior Investment will be one of the "bunch." 9) Meantime (Brian Lynch/Mike Smith) - ML 15-1
Here's your pace-setter. It's his second start against winners, so in that sense he's eligible to improve. And Mike Smith is one of the best riders in the country at nursing horses along on the front end. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a great Belmont meet, but despite all those positives, I still can't envision him winning. The absence of Classic Empire pressing the pace might allow him to hang around a bit longer than expected, and I'll use for third and fourth in tris and supers just to be safe.
10. Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario); ML 15-1
His breeding suggests sprinter, but his running style suggests he doesn't mind going long, as he likes to come from off the pace. He's been well-meant in all of his starts and his Preakness was better than what the sixth-place finish would indicate. Joel Rosario has been a good rider to back in the Belmont, as he's usually been in the mix; his last five mounts have finished fourth, second, first, third and third. I think there's a ton of upside here and is another one who can win. And you just might get a nice price, as he could be forgotten about in the wagering.
11. Epicharis (Kiyosji Hagiwara/Christophe Lemaire); ML 4-1
He's a big unknown in my book, as he ran great in the UAE Derby versus Thunder Snow and has been odds-on in many of his races, but who knows the level of competition he was running against in Japan. Based on the form, it would appear he will be on or near the lead, so he should be in the thick of it for a while. I'd expect him to be a pretty big underlay as well, given Lani's third-place finish last year in this race, along with the affinity for Thunder Snow in the Derby. If healthy, I guess he would be usable in the lower rungs of tris and supers, but since 2004, there have been only three winners shorter than 4-1. And now with health issues -- lameness -- who knows if he will even run. He's an even bigger play against now in my eyes. If he wins -- especially at 4-1 or less -- I lose.
12. Patch (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 12-1
If you like him, there's no chance you get true value on this horse, given that it is Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. in New York. And then you have the sentimental public angle of those casual fans who "want to bet on the one-eyed horse." Thing is, I actually like Patch a little bit and think he can go on and have a pretty decent year. You don't have to worry about him getting the distance as his sire Union Rags and dam-sire A.P. Indy both won the Belmont. He's hung all the way outside as he was in the Derby, but that shouldn't have a huge impact on his chances, even though it is his left eye which he is missing.
For those that like to blindly bet Pletcher/Johnny V, keep in mind 10 of the last 11 Velazquez-Pletcher Triple Crown combos have finished fourth or worse, with Always Dreaming's win in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago the lone exception. Patch should sit a good trip and I think he could be sitting on a lifetime best here. It wouldn't shock me at all if he wins.
Fallica's potential ways to play the race:
I will approach my wagering not by who I think will win, but by who I think will run well. In 2008, a very good handicapper and friend of mine approached the race by saying "I don't know who will win, but I know Denis of Cork will run well." He then proceeded to play tris Denis of Cork/all/all, all/Denis of Cork/all and all/all/Denis of Cork. The rest is history. Moral of the story, you don't need to have a solid opinion on top to make money. I am confident that either Irish War Cry or Tapwrit will run well -- but not necessarily win -- so I will put them in a prominent spot in the exotics and hope to catch a price in the other spots.
$1 tri 2-7/3-4-8-10-12/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 tri 3-4-8-10-12/2-7/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 exacta box 2-7/3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$1 exacta box 3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$2 W-P 2-3-4-8-10-12 ($24)
Lane Gold's value picks
Here are some good values for the final leg of the Triple Crown:
Tapwrit (PP No. 2, 6-1 ML)
Trainer Todd Pletcher excels when he gives his horses a few weeks between races. It may have been a factor in the defeat of Always Dreaming in the Preakness but Tapwrit has not run since a sixth-place finish in the Derby.
His Derby effort was better than it appears as he got off to a tough start, starting 15th and despite encountering trouble during the race, he managed to make his way to sixth. Earlier in the year, he was one of top Derby contenders after his impressive victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
In the early running of Saturday's race, he should be sitting in the second pack of horses and there won't be the traffic problems that usually occur in the Derby. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him the last four races, will be back aboard.
Patch (PP No. 12, 12-1 ML)
He become famous for his one eye and was a bit overbet in the Derby because of that, but that race served his well. He entered the Derby with just three lifetime races and it is very difficult to win the biggest the race in North America with such little experience.
He had a tough trip in the Derby and finished 14th, but the race gave him a good learning experience and now he picks up jockey John Velazquez, who was aboard in his only victory. This is another horse that will benefit with rest between the Derby and Belmont. Without a lot of front-running speed in the Belmont, he should be sitting in third or fourth early on and if he has any run on the turn for home, he will in great position to seize the lead at the top of the stretch.
There is no concern about getting the 1.5-mile Belmont distance since his father, Union Rags, was second in this race in 2012.
Senior Investment (PP No. 8, 12-1 ML)
He was one of the long shots in the Preakness (31-1) and made a huge late move, closing from last to third. Both trainer and jockey were excited about the added distance of the Belmont.
The key for the chestnut colt is not fall too far back behind the pack. There is a misconception the longer Belmont helps horses closing from far back, but that has not been historically accurate. Earlier this year, he was able to win races in Louisiana despite being much closer to the front, and that will be a major key if he's able to pull off the upset.
Trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Belmont in 2002 with 70-1 outsider Sarava, brought Senior Investment right to Belmont from the Preakness and the horse has been getting acclimated to the track over the past three weeks.
lt as if Irish War Cry was a safe key horse in the exotics and I feel that way again this week. I'd expect him to bounce back and have a big say in the outcome - almost in the same way Union Rags did a few years back. Jockey Rajiv Maragh has been on six horses that were top-four betting choices in a Triple Crown race - and they all pretty much ran to the board (10th, fourth, fourth, sixth, third and fifth) except for Irish War Cry in the Derby.
8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill); ML 12-1
Trainer Kenny McPeek pulled one of biggest upsets ever with Sarava at 70-1 in 2002, so this wouldn't be nearly as much of a shocker. Six of the last nine Belmont winners have had at least 11-1 odds, and seven of the last nine were won by a horse which was the fifth choice or worse in the wagering. He -- and a few others -- certainly fit that mold here and are quite attractive. He'll be closing into what should be a pretty solid pace and while I don't like him as much as Patch or Lookin At Lee, I will use him on my pick fours and throughout the trifecta. This is a great betting race and the way I will approach it is to use a lot of horses in the multi-race wagers and then key potentially Irish War Cry with a bunch; Senior Investment will be one of the "bunch." 9) Meantime (Brian Lynch/Mike Smith) - ML 15-1
Here's your pace-setter. It's his second start against winners, so in that sense he's eligible to improve. And Mike Smith is one of the best riders in the country at nursing horses along on the front end. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a great Belmont meet, but despite all those positives, I still can't envision him winning. The absence of Classic Empire pressing the pace might allow him to hang around a bit longer than expected, and I'll use for third and fourth in tris and supers just to be safe.
10. Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario); ML 15-1
His breeding suggests sprinter, but his running style suggests he doesn't mind going long, as he likes to come from off the pace. He's been well-meant in all of his starts and his Preakness was better than what the sixth-place finish would indicate. Joel Rosario has been a good rider to back in the Belmont, as he's usually been in the mix; his last five mounts have finished fourth, second, first, third and third. I think there's a ton of upside here and is another one who can win. And you just might get a nice price, as he could be forgotten about in the wagering.
11. Epicharis (Kiyosji Hagiwara/Christophe Lemaire); ML 4-1
He's a big unknown in my book, as he ran great in the UAE Derby versus Thunder Snow and has been odds-on in many of his races, but who knows the level of competition he was running against in Japan. Based on the form, it would appear he will be on or near the lead, so he should be in the thick of it for a while. I'd expect him to be a pretty big underlay as well, given Lani's third-place finish last year in this race, along with the affinity for Thunder Snow in the Derby. If healthy, I guess he would be usable in the lower rungs of tris and supers, but since 2004, there have been only three winners shorter than 4-1. And now with health issues -- lameness -- who knows if he will even run. He's an even bigger play against now in my eyes. If he wins -- especially at 4-1 or less -- I lose.
12. Patch (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 12-1
If you like him, there's no chance you get true value on this horse, given that it is Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. in New York. And then you have the sentimental public angle of those casual fans who "want to bet on the one-eyed horse." Thing is, I actually like Patch a little bit and think he can go on and have a pretty decent year. You don't have to worry about him getting the distance as his sire Union Rags and dam-sire A.P. Indy both won the Belmont. He's hung all the way outside as he was in the Derby, but that shouldn't have a huge impact on his chances, even though it is his left eye which he is missing.
For those that like to blindly bet Pletcher/Johnny V, keep in mind 10 of the last 11 Velazquez-Pletcher Triple Crown combos have finished fourth or worse, with Always Dreaming's win in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago the lone exception. Patch should sit a good trip and I think he could be sitting on a lifetime best here. It wouldn't shock me at all if he wins.
Fallica's potential ways to play the race:
I will approach my wagering not by who I think will win, but by who I think will run well. In 2008, a very good handicapper and friend of mine approached the race by saying "I don't know who will win, but I know Denis of Cork will run well." He then proceeded to play tris Denis of Cork/all/all, all/Denis of Cork/all and all/all/Denis of Cork. The rest is history. Moral of the story, you don't need to have a solid opinion on top to make money. I am confident that either Irish War Cry or Tapwrit will run well -- but not necessarily win -- so I will put them in a prominent spot in the exotics and hope to catch a price in the other spots.
$1 tri 2-7/3-4-8-10-12/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 tri 3-4-8-10-12/2-7/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 exacta box 2-7/3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$1 exacta box 3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$2 W-P 2-3-4-8-10-12 ($24)
Lane Gold's value picks
Here are some good values for the final leg of the Triple Crown:
Tapwrit (PP No. 2, 6-1 ML)
Trainer Todd Pletcher excels when he gives his horses a few weeks between races. It may have been a factor in the defeat of Always Dreaming in the Preakness but Tapwrit has not run since a sixth-place finish in the Derby.
His Derby effort was better than it appears as he got off to a tough start, starting 15th and despite encountering trouble during the race, he managed to make his way to sixth. Earlier in the year, he was one of top Derby contenders after his impressive victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
In the early running of Saturday's race, he should be sitting in the second pack of horses and there won't be the traffic problems that usually occur in the Derby. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him the last four races, will be back aboard.
Patch (PP No. 12, 12-1 ML)
He become famous for his one eye and was a bit overbet in the Derby because of that, but that race served his well. He entered the Derby with just three lifetime races and it is very difficult to win the biggest the race in North America with such little experience.
He had a tough trip in the Derby and finished 14th, but the race gave him a good learning experience and now he picks up jockey John Velazquez, who was aboard in his only victory. This is another horse that will benefit with rest between the Derby and Belmont. Without a lot of front-running speed in the Belmont, he should be sitting in third or fourth early on and if he has any run on the turn for home, he will in great position to seize the lead at the top of the stretch.
There is no concern about getting the 1.5-mile Belmont distance since his father, Union Rags, was second in this race in 2012.
Senior Investment (PP No. 8, 12-1 ML)
He was one of the long shots in the Preakness (31-1) and made a huge late move, closing from last to third. Both trainer and jockey were excited about the added distance of the Belmont.
The key for the chestnut colt is not fall too far back behind the pack. There is a misconception the longer Belmont helps horses closing from far back, but that has not been historically accurate. Earlier this year, he was able to win races in Louisiana despite being much closer to the front, and that will be a major key if he's able to pull off the upset.
Trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Belmont in 2002 with 70-1 outsider Sarava, brought Senior Investment right to Belmont from the Preakness and the horse has been getting acclimated to the track over the past three weeks.
Chris FallicaLane Gold
ESPN INSIDER
6/8/17
Welcome to ESPN Chalk's betting preview for the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes, where we take a look at every horse in the field, in order of post position, and analyze where the value lies.
Neither the Derby (Always Dreaming) nor Preakness (Cloud Computing) winner is running in Saturday's Belmont, but that doesn't mean we're sitting on the sidelines. It's actually a great betting race that I believe can be won by eight of the 12 horses.
After a profitable Preakness, here is my betting guide for the third jewel of the Triple Crown.
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1. Twisted Tom (Trainer: Chad Brown, jockey: Javier Castellano); morning line: 20-1
I expect him to be involved early and get a call or two before fading. His figures are really light and this is a massive step-up in class. On the bright side, Javier Castellano's five exacta finishes with horses greater than 8-1 odds are second only to Pat Day, who has seven. However, I don't see Javier posting a sixth exacta finish with a price horse here, especially as I believe he'll be under the gun from the inside at this distance.
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2. Tapwrit (Todd Pletcher/Jose Ortiz); ML 6-1
Trained by Todd Pletcher? Won the Tampa Bay Derby? Finished sixth in the Derby? Skipped the Preakness? All check marks. All Tapwrit has to do to complete the Destin 2016 comparison checklist is run huge Saturday at Belmont. And all signs point to him doing just that.
He's quite comfortable on, just off or well off the pace and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) circuit -- especially Belmont and Saratoga -- is Todd Pletcher's playground. He's nearly pulled some huge upsets with price horses here -- just missing with Destin last year at 8-1, Commissioner in 2014 at 28-1 and Stay Thirsty at 16-1 in 2011. Tapwrit won't be in the double digits but he should still be at least the third choice and that should play quite nicely in the exotics. As are many of the horses who were outside in the slop on Derby day, he's on the short list of contenders. I believe no horse benefits more from the scratch of Classic Empire and the question of Epicharis' condition more than Tapwrit. His price will suffer, but his chances will improve dramatically.
3. Gormley (John Shirreffs/Victor Espinoza); ML 8-1
He reminds me a little bit of 2010 Belmont Stakes champion Drosselmeyer in the sense that he's a grinder. Not the fastest horse, not the quickest turn of foot, but one that there's little doubt can stay for 1.5 miles. He looked to be in a good spot in the Derby, but then as we all later realized, outside was not the place to be -- and the wide trip from post 18 contributed to him backing up to ninth. The last time Victor Espinoza rode in this race, he emerged a Triple Crown winner. I'd expect him to be just off the lead, as he's proven he doesn't need it to win, and a much better effort than what happened in Louisville. I give him a shot at pulling the big upset.
4. J Boys Echo (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado); ML 15-1
Nine of the last 18 Belmont Stakes have been won by horses which ran in the Kentucky Derby and then rested for five weeks prior to the Belmont. Robby Albarado has done pretty well in this race, riding Medal Count to a third-place finish at 25-1, Denis of Cork to a second-place finish at 7-1 and just missing with Curlin in 2007. Dale Romans has run eight horses in the Belmont and half of them have finished third -- with three of those four coming at odds of at least 17-1. There are lots of good angles to play with here and you get a horse who now owns the top Beyer Figure in the field -- 102 in the Gotham -- with Classic Empire scratched. Will lightning strike twice for Bobby Flay? Last year he purchased a share of Creator prior to the Belmont. And this week he purchased a share of J Boys Echo. He's another that isn't impossible and worth inclusion in all tri spots given this race's recent propensity to spring an upset.
5. Hollywood Handsome (Dallas Stewart/Florent Geroux); ML 30-1
Nobody loves sending his one-run closers to Belmont more than Dallas Stewart. And the next one that hits the board will be the first. Seeking the Soul and Forever D'Oro were last and next-to-last last year and Tale of Verve was seventh in 2015. Commanding Curve was last in 2014 and Golden Soul finished ninth in 2013. Hollywood Handsome was life and death to win a six-horse N1X at Churchill Downs three weeks ago and I can't make a case for him to even hit the board here.
6. Lookin At Lee (Steve Asmussen/Irad Ortiz Jr.); ML 5-1
After the scratch of Classic Empire, he's the only of the Belmont entrants to run in all three Triple Crown races. There have been 11 horses that have run in the Belmont after finishing second in the Derby at greater than 20-1. Often many of them were closers who should love the added distance in the Belmont and be very dangerous, but none of those 11 horses won the Belmont and only Bluegrass Cat in 2006 finished in the money. The last "buzz" horse to fit this profile was Commanding Curve who was bet down to 9-1 in 2014 and didn't beat a single horse.
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will be seeking consecutive Belmont wins for the first time since Laffit Pincay Jr. on Caveat and Swale in 1983-84. Lookin At Lee has a very similar running style to Creator and while Creator did win last year, deep closers are not typically the way to go in this race. Trainer Steve Asmussen has said all along this horse wants added ground, so this race should be right in his wheelhouse, but I don't like the odds of the same jockey/trainer combo winning the Belmont in consecutive years with a dead closer. He can win, but he isn't great value. I'll use underneath and if he beats me, he beats me.
7. Irish Way Cry (Graham Motion/Rajiv Maragh); ML 7-2
With the scratch of Classic Empire, he's the likely favorite and could be just the fourth time in the history of the race the favorite has been 3-1 or longer. Graham Motion hasn't run a horse in the Belmont since Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished sixth as the favorite in 2011. Like Gormley, he was stuck outside and folded up like a cheap suit when the real running began in Louisville. The only other time he threw in a clunker -- in the Fountain of Youth after a dominant win in the Holy Bull -- he rebounded with an emphatic win in the Wood Memorial. His daddy (Curlin) finished second to Rags to Riches in the Belmont and certainly had no distance limitations.
Favoritism hasn't been kind in this race lately, as American Pharoah is the only favorite in the last 11 years to win the Belmont and six of the last nine ran completely out of the money. In the Derby, I felt as if Irish War Cry was a safe key horse in the exotics and I feel that way again this week. I'd expect him to bounce back and have a big say in the outcome - almost in the same way Union Rags did a few years back. Jockey Rajiv Maragh has been on six horses that were top-four betting choices in a Triple Crown race - and they all pretty much ran to the board (10th, fourth, fourth, sixth, third and fifth) except for Irish War Cry in the Derby.
8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill); ML 12-1
Trainer Kenny McPeek pulled one of biggest upsets ever with Sarava at 70-1 in 2002, so this wouldn't be nearly as much of a shocker. Six of the last nine Belmont winners have had at least 11-1 odds, and seven of the last nine were won by a horse which was the fifth choice or worse in the wagering. He -- and a few others -- certainly fit that mold here and are quite attractive. He'll be closing into what should be a pretty solid pace and while I don't like him as much as Patch or Lookin At Lee, I will use him on my pick fours and throughout the trifecta. This is a great betting race and the way I will approach it is to use a lot of horses in the multi-race wagers and then key potentially Irish War Cry with a bunch; Senior Investment will be one of the "bunch." 9) Meantime (Brian Lynch/Mike Smith) - ML 15-1
Here's your pace-setter. It's his second start against winners, so in that sense he's eligible to improve. And Mike Smith is one of the best riders in the country at nursing horses along on the front end. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a great Belmont meet, but despite all those positives, I still can't envision him winning. The absence of Classic Empire pressing the pace might allow him to hang around a bit longer than expected, and I'll use for third and fourth in tris and supers just to be safe.
10. Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario); ML 15-1
His breeding suggests sprinter, but his running style suggests he doesn't mind going long, as he likes to come from off the pace. He's been well-meant in all of his starts and his Preakness was better than what the sixth-place finish would indicate. Joel Rosario has been a good rider to back in the Belmont, as he's usually been in the mix; his last five mounts have finished fourth, second, first, third and third. I think there's a ton of upside here and is another one who can win. And you just might get a nice price, as he could be forgotten about in the wagering.
11. Epicharis (Kiyosji Hagiwara/Christophe Lemaire); ML 4-1
He's a big unknown in my book, as he ran great in the UAE Derby versus Thunder Snow and has been odds-on in many of his races, but who knows the level of competition he was running against in Japan. Based on the form, it would appear he will be on or near the lead, so he should be in the thick of it for a while. I'd expect him to be a pretty big underlay as well, given Lani's third-place finish last year in this race, along with the affinity for Thunder Snow in the Derby. If healthy, I guess he would be usable in the lower rungs of tris and supers, but since 2004, there have been only three winners shorter than 4-1. And now with health issues -- lameness -- who knows if he will even run. He's an even bigger play against now in my eyes. If he wins -- especially at 4-1 or less -- I lose.
12. Patch (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 12-1
If you like him, there's no chance you get true value on this horse, given that it is Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. in New York. And then you have the sentimental public angle of those casual fans who "want to bet on the one-eyed horse." Thing is, I actually like Patch a little bit and think he can go on and have a pretty decent year. You don't have to worry about him getting the distance as his sire Union Rags and dam-sire A.P. Indy both won the Belmont. He's hung all the way outside as he was in the Derby, but that shouldn't have a huge impact on his chances, even though it is his left eye which he is missing.
For those that like to blindly bet Pletcher/Johnny V, keep in mind 10 of the last 11 Velazquez-Pletcher Triple Crown combos have finished fourth or worse, with Always Dreaming's win in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago the lone exception. Patch should sit a good trip and I think he could be sitting on a lifetime best here. It wouldn't shock me at all if he wins.
Fallica's potential ways to play the race:
I will approach my wagering not by who I think will win, but by who I think will run well. In 2008, a very good handicapper and friend of mine approached the race by saying "I don't know who will win, but I know Denis of Cork will run well." He then proceeded to play tris Denis of Cork/all/all, all/Denis of Cork/all and all/all/Denis of Cork. The rest is history. Moral of the story, you don't need to have a solid opinion on top to make money. I am confident that either Irish War Cry or Tapwrit will run well -- but not necessarily win -- so I will put them in a prominent spot in the exotics and hope to catch a price in the other spots.
$1 tri 2-7/3-4-8-10-12/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 tri 3-4-8-10-12/2-7/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 exacta box 2-7/3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$1 exacta box 3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$2 W-P 2-3-4-8-10-12 ($24)
Lane Gold's value picks
Here are some good values for the final leg of the Triple Crown:
Tapwrit (PP No. 2, 6-1 ML)
Trainer Todd Pletcher excels when he gives his horses a few weeks between races. It may have been a factor in the defeat of Always Dreaming in the Preakness but Tapwrit has not run since a sixth-place finish in the Derby.
His Derby effort was better than it appears as he got off to a tough start, starting 15th and despite encountering trouble during the race, he managed to make his way to sixth. Earlier in the year, he was one of top Derby contenders after his impressive victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
In the early running of Saturday's race, he should be sitting in the second pack of horses and there won't be the traffic problems that usually occur in the Derby. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him the last four races, will be back aboard.
Patch (PP No. 12, 12-1 ML)
He become famous for his one eye and was a bit overbet in the Derby because of that, but that race served his well. He entered the Derby with just three lifetime races and it is very difficult to win the biggest the race in North America with such little experience.
He had a tough trip in the Derby and finished 14th, but the race gave him a good learning experience and now he picks up jockey John Velazquez, who was aboard in his only victory. This is another horse that will benefit with rest between the Derby and Belmont. Without a lot of front-running speed in the Belmont, he should be sitting in third or fourth early on and if he has any run on the turn for home, he will in great position to seize the lead at the top of the stretch.
There is no concern about getting the 1.5-mile Belmont distance since his father, Union Rags, was second in this race in 2012.
Senior Investment (PP No. 8, 12-1 ML)
He was one of the long shots in the Preakness (31-1) and made a huge late move, closing from last to third. Both trainer and jockey were excited about the added distance of the Belmont.
The key for the chestnut colt is not fall too far back behind the pack. There is a misconception the longer Belmont helps horses closing from far back, but that has not been historically accurate. Earlier this year, he was able to win races in Louisiana despite being much closer to the front, and that will be a major key if he's able to pull off the upset.
Trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Belmont in 2002 with 70-1 outsider Sarava, brought Senior Investment right to Belmont from the Preakness and the horse has been getting acclimated to the track over the past three weeks.
lt as if Irish War Cry was a safe key horse in the exotics and I feel that way again this week. I'd expect him to bounce back and have a big say in the outcome - almost in the same way Union Rags did a few years back. Jockey Rajiv Maragh has been on six horses that were top-four betting choices in a Triple Crown race - and they all pretty much ran to the board (10th, fourth, fourth, sixth, third and fifth) except for Irish War Cry in the Derby.
8. Senior Investment (Ken McPeek/Channing Hill); ML 12-1
Trainer Kenny McPeek pulled one of biggest upsets ever with Sarava at 70-1 in 2002, so this wouldn't be nearly as much of a shocker. Six of the last nine Belmont winners have had at least 11-1 odds, and seven of the last nine were won by a horse which was the fifth choice or worse in the wagering. He -- and a few others -- certainly fit that mold here and are quite attractive. He'll be closing into what should be a pretty solid pace and while I don't like him as much as Patch or Lookin At Lee, I will use him on my pick fours and throughout the trifecta. This is a great betting race and the way I will approach it is to use a lot of horses in the multi-race wagers and then key potentially Irish War Cry with a bunch; Senior Investment will be one of the "bunch." 9) Meantime (Brian Lynch/Mike Smith) - ML 15-1
Here's your pace-setter. It's his second start against winners, so in that sense he's eligible to improve. And Mike Smith is one of the best riders in the country at nursing horses along on the front end. Trainer Brian Lynch is having a great Belmont meet, but despite all those positives, I still can't envision him winning. The absence of Classic Empire pressing the pace might allow him to hang around a bit longer than expected, and I'll use for third and fourth in tris and supers just to be safe.
10. Multiplier (Brendan Walsh/Joel Rosario); ML 15-1
His breeding suggests sprinter, but his running style suggests he doesn't mind going long, as he likes to come from off the pace. He's been well-meant in all of his starts and his Preakness was better than what the sixth-place finish would indicate. Joel Rosario has been a good rider to back in the Belmont, as he's usually been in the mix; his last five mounts have finished fourth, second, first, third and third. I think there's a ton of upside here and is another one who can win. And you just might get a nice price, as he could be forgotten about in the wagering.
11. Epicharis (Kiyosji Hagiwara/Christophe Lemaire); ML 4-1
He's a big unknown in my book, as he ran great in the UAE Derby versus Thunder Snow and has been odds-on in many of his races, but who knows the level of competition he was running against in Japan. Based on the form, it would appear he will be on or near the lead, so he should be in the thick of it for a while. I'd expect him to be a pretty big underlay as well, given Lani's third-place finish last year in this race, along with the affinity for Thunder Snow in the Derby. If healthy, I guess he would be usable in the lower rungs of tris and supers, but since 2004, there have been only three winners shorter than 4-1. And now with health issues -- lameness -- who knows if he will even run. He's an even bigger play against now in my eyes. If he wins -- especially at 4-1 or less -- I lose.
12. Patch (Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez); ML 12-1
If you like him, there's no chance you get true value on this horse, given that it is Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. in New York. And then you have the sentimental public angle of those casual fans who "want to bet on the one-eyed horse." Thing is, I actually like Patch a little bit and think he can go on and have a pretty decent year. You don't have to worry about him getting the distance as his sire Union Rags and dam-sire A.P. Indy both won the Belmont. He's hung all the way outside as he was in the Derby, but that shouldn't have a huge impact on his chances, even though it is his left eye which he is missing.
For those that like to blindly bet Pletcher/Johnny V, keep in mind 10 of the last 11 Velazquez-Pletcher Triple Crown combos have finished fourth or worse, with Always Dreaming's win in the Kentucky Derby five weeks ago the lone exception. Patch should sit a good trip and I think he could be sitting on a lifetime best here. It wouldn't shock me at all if he wins.
Fallica's potential ways to play the race:
I will approach my wagering not by who I think will win, but by who I think will run well. In 2008, a very good handicapper and friend of mine approached the race by saying "I don't know who will win, but I know Denis of Cork will run well." He then proceeded to play tris Denis of Cork/all/all, all/Denis of Cork/all and all/all/Denis of Cork. The rest is history. Moral of the story, you don't need to have a solid opinion on top to make money. I am confident that either Irish War Cry or Tapwrit will run well -- but not necessarily win -- so I will put them in a prominent spot in the exotics and hope to catch a price in the other spots.
$1 tri 2-7/3-4-8-10-12/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 tri 3-4-8-10-12/2-7/2-3-4-6-7-9-10-12 ($60) (or .50 tri for $30)
$1 exacta box 2-7/3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$1 exacta box 3-4-8-10-12 ($20)
$2 W-P 2-3-4-8-10-12 ($24)
Lane Gold's value picks
Here are some good values for the final leg of the Triple Crown:
Tapwrit (PP No. 2, 6-1 ML)
Trainer Todd Pletcher excels when he gives his horses a few weeks between races. It may have been a factor in the defeat of Always Dreaming in the Preakness but Tapwrit has not run since a sixth-place finish in the Derby.
His Derby effort was better than it appears as he got off to a tough start, starting 15th and despite encountering trouble during the race, he managed to make his way to sixth. Earlier in the year, he was one of top Derby contenders after his impressive victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
In the early running of Saturday's race, he should be sitting in the second pack of horses and there won't be the traffic problems that usually occur in the Derby. Jockey Jose Ortiz, who has ridden him the last four races, will be back aboard.
Patch (PP No. 12, 12-1 ML)
He become famous for his one eye and was a bit overbet in the Derby because of that, but that race served his well. He entered the Derby with just three lifetime races and it is very difficult to win the biggest the race in North America with such little experience.
He had a tough trip in the Derby and finished 14th, but the race gave him a good learning experience and now he picks up jockey John Velazquez, who was aboard in his only victory. This is another horse that will benefit with rest between the Derby and Belmont. Without a lot of front-running speed in the Belmont, he should be sitting in third or fourth early on and if he has any run on the turn for home, he will in great position to seize the lead at the top of the stretch.
There is no concern about getting the 1.5-mile Belmont distance since his father, Union Rags, was second in this race in 2012.
Senior Investment (PP No. 8, 12-1 ML)
He was one of the long shots in the Preakness (31-1) and made a huge late move, closing from last to third. Both trainer and jockey were excited about the added distance of the Belmont.
The key for the chestnut colt is not fall too far back behind the pack. There is a misconception the longer Belmont helps horses closing from far back, but that has not been historically accurate. Earlier this year, he was able to win races in Louisiana despite being much closer to the front, and that will be a major key if he's able to pull off the upset.
Trainer Ken McPeek, who won the Belmont in 2002 with 70-1 outsider Sarava, brought Senior Investment right to Belmont from the Preakness and the horse has been getting acclimated to the track over the past three weeks.
