betting dogs/favorites

blueedwards · Jul 8, 2003

when betting baseball games, do you guys:

a) lay $150 to win $100 on the favorites and lay $100 to win $150 on the dogs

b) lay $100 to win $66.67 on the favorites and lay $66.67 to win $100 on the dogs

c) lay $100 regardless of the line.

SSI · Jul 8, 2003

blueedwards · Jul 8, 2003

i have heard that the sharp players bet as described in (c).

JCW412 · Jul 8, 2003

c is what I do.

mjred · Jul 9, 2003

some guys at punterslounge.com have gone into this topic at great length and concluded farily convincingly that the most conservative strategy(ie the one least likely to lead to ruin while still giving a decent return) is one that stakes for a fixed return - that is bet 66.67 on the +150 dog and bet 150 on the -150 fave to win 100 on either. second most conservative was your 'c' fixed risk, which will have a similar expectation of return$ against slightly greater risk of ruin. this discussion has gone on at that site for over a year that i have followed and maybe more than that. there are some pretty sharp guys over there who have put many different staking systems through thousands of simulated bets and they are currently tracking how they do on real life real time tests.

jwunderdog · Jul 9, 2003

I have played around with this in the past, both systems have leans in opposite dirictions, THe one were you have -150 to win 100 and 66-100 on the dog, gives a lean that you will win more betting favorites, the one with -150-100 and 100-150 leans towards dogs. All depends on what you think you make more money on dogs or favorite.the one with 100-66 or 100-150 is a definite dog lean.All depends on what you winning % is betting favorites and Dogs.