Betting both teams -1.5 runs - profitable?

[patswin]

Saw this today, and wondered if it could be profitable

Game is Stl/Det

Bet365 has Stl -1.5 runs +150
Mansion has Det -1.5 runs +215

Could it be profitable to take both teams 1.5 runs and if Stl wins by 2 or more you get +050 and if Det wins by 2 or more you get +115.

I've seen threads posted on this before and I thought it was not profitable in the long run. But at a this type of spread wouldn't it be worth a shot?

 

[TKE683]

If it lands on 1 you lose your @ss, i don't see how it could be profitable.

 

[patswin]

If it lands on 1 you lose your @ss, i don't see how it could be profitable.

Exactly, but at these prices could you show a profit over the long term. I thought like 20-30% of all games are decided by one run. Just was wondering if you could show a profit by doing this. My gut tells me no but i thought maybe someone else had info they could share on this to explain further

 

[TKE683]

I had thought about this in the past as well, i havent had the time to do a major analysis on it, but if you are going to try it i would run through the numbers, find out what % of games land on 1 and go from there.

 

[TKE683]

Personally i would not do it on the Det/STL game, two very good pitchers going, should be tight, i would look more for games where you have crappy pitchers going.

 

[Journeyman]

This would lose if you bet it across the board.

 

[cosmokram3r]

This is something u should do like once or twice a week for a game that doenst look tight and games have been proven to be blowouts...

 

[Tulsa]

There is a situation that you might find where this is a good idea...when two teams match up with middling to poor pitching for both.

A good indication of this might be using the TOTAL to decide whether to try your ploy/strategy. If, say, the TOTAL is 9 runs or higher (just a guess and offering a place to start thinking) then the oddsmakers may think the game will have more than average scoring and that means a great potential for having the game be decided by OTHER than one run.

You might have the potential for a very workable and very basic system here. TOTAL is above ten and you play the -1.5 on each team. TOTAL is under ten and you don't. Just an idea of where you can start. I will look into this idea as well and let you guys know if I find any good patterns. tulsa

 

[patswin]

There is a situation that you might find where this is a good idea...when two teams match up with middling to poor pitching for both.

A good indication of this might be using the TOTAL to decide whether to try your ploy/strategy. If, say, the TOTAL is 9 runs or higher (just a guess and offering a place to start thinking) then the oddsmakers may think the game will have more than average scoring and that means a great potential for having the game be decided by OTHER than one run.

You might have the potential for a very workable and very basic system here. TOTAL is above ten and you play the -1.5 on each team. TOTAL is under ten and you don't. Just an idea of where you can start. I will look into this idea as well and let you guys know if I find any good patterns. tulsa

Not a bad idea Tulsa, I might try it out a few times tracking it only and see if it looks like a good one. I just think with the different odds it could be profitable if the games do not appear to be close

 

[randolph]

That's a very good idea and it also limits your plays and chances for losses. It would be non-profitable to bet every game or nearly every game and I agree that you would have to set a number by which you bet those games.

 

[matthew1811]

I met someone on another forum who did this for awhile, and he showed some decent profit. He didn't do it based simply on odds though and potential profit. He delved far into each matchup that had these types of odds and only played the ones that he thought could blow up in the Run category. He looked a lot at the over/under as well and tended to avoid the games with low totals (for obvious reasons).

 

[TKE683]

To me if i was going to try this I would hit these:
Friday:Mets/Toronto
Saturday:Baltimore/Washington

 

[barman]

One run games occur about once in every three outings.

FUN FACT..The Orioles have not played a one-run game in past 18.

 

[Tulsa]

In all honesty, maybe it would be best to look at these and not be locked into a hard and fast rule. One thing is, I like the Phillies Red Sox but the Red Sox at -1.5 runs are -1.05 and that defeats a bit of our purpose.

One game after a quick perusal of todays games: Texas Rangers/Colorado Rockies. I don't know who will win but the game won't be a one run game, I'm pretty confident. The O/U is 9.5 (earlier today) and would not have fit the bill of being O/U 10 or more.

I looked through about six days of lines and scores and there would be two or three winners for the system and one 1-run game in the category of O/U 10 and higher. That won't cut it. Now, I know that wasn't looking at very many days, but it makes one wonder.

I would think this could work much better if one cherry-picked the games carefully and with some skill, and not fretting about the O/U being a hard criterion but rather a useful fact for helping decide.

Here are my games for today:
1 Pirates/Dodgers
2 Nationals/Orioles
3 Brewers/Royals
4 Rangers/Rockies
5 Angels/Diamondbacks

Can anyone do me a favor today and put a price on these at -1.5 for each? Can we share a bit of the workload? If you do we can have a hard number on my results today. If not we still will be able to determine how this worked.... We can afford one 1-run game. Any more than one and it goes to hell quickly. tulsa

 

[Tulsa]

Hello? Anyone? LOL! Wow. You guys are killing me. I have the run lines -1.5 for the favorites. Can someone here get these games -1.5 for the dogs and we'll know how this list of games did. I did the work for the lines and games over five or six days and that took several minutes...I don't have time right now. Man, you ask for help and then you can listen to the wind blowing and watch a tumbleweed roll by....

Help me out here. tulsa

 

[Megacapper]

Isolate the plays to the games with totals over 10.

 

[Mikeyboi49]

I will try this stystem today, the game I am using is

Tex/Col

Tex -1.5 +170
Col -1.5 +160

Best value in total to me is 9.5 as its not too high or low meaning you will get a good value for the runline...

laying 100 each I will update later...

 

[barman]

Alt run lines are available at Pinnacle and at Carib (under SPECIALS)

But you have to catch em before the game goes off.

Essentially what you're trying to do here is avoid being "middled".

You'll get paid a bit less than one unit 2 out of 3 games and will lose 2 units every third game.

As a "flat" idea, it's not much better than 3card monte.

That being said, look for a matchup where the two teams have each played two or more one run games in a row.

For example (imaginary matchup here)...Sox host Yanks and on previous two nights they both played one run games versus other teams.

Flat odds on continued one-run outcomes begin tilting your way.

 

[winbet]

As I said in X-files Thread, it seems to be the fashion to make bets more complicated giving the impression that they must be good because of it. Simply put, you are acting as a Bookmaker and laying correct scores in a Baseball game and the bottom line is if you dont know your figures, you will do your bollocks (lose big). There are easier ways to make betting pay than the one you are suggesting. :drink:

 

[Uno]

Hey guys how about a game where the line is basically set at a pick em. You can get one side at even money and the other side at -1.5 +180 or sometimes better. Any thoughts on that?

There have been a handful of a times where I have bet like this and both the runline and alt runline like the title of this thread. And it has been profitable so far this year but long term I have to believe it would fall apart.