betting ATS streaks

[brewster]

this is a new strategy I have been trying for the past week and half or so with some success. although i need to fine tune it. it would have worked for memphis tonite. just follow the teams that have hit 6+ ATS and then bet against them first for a unit, then 2, then 4, etc.. the only way you get burned bad is if a team hits 10 or 11 straight ATS.
Does anyone know the longset ATS streak in modern times?? I have not seen more than 8.

 

[mvbski]

good theory but sooner or later could bite you in the

if a team goes on a tear

 

[RPM]

a good theory. as long as you keep all your plays to the same amount it should be a winner.

only problem is for me, its hard to go against a team that has been hot. sometimes it just seems like a team forgot how to lose.

 

[D2bets]

Bad bad bad theory. Any variation on doubling up after losses is a recipe for disaster. If I'm not mistaken I believe Xavier covered 16 of their las 17 so they must have had at least 8 in a row, probably more.

 

[wilheim]

Somebody forgot to tell the Golden State Warriors they're a bad team. They're currently riding the NBA's most profitable streak with seven straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) victories in a row. The Warriors play at Philly tomorrow, no line yet because of the AI situation.

wil.

 

[RPM]

another thing...

you probably wont find many plays.

 

[brewster]

the warriors owe me a little money so I will be pulling the trigger against them. I have learned in very short order that my system shouldnt be started until 6+. Seattle was really pissing me off until portland barely covered on saturday.

D2- that is a long streak for xavier. Do you know what the longest has been in the nba?

 

[brewster]

RPM - almost a play a day the last 2 weeks.

 

[RPM]

brewster,


have you looked at this for sports besides nba?

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by brewster:
this is a new strategy I have been trying for the past week and half or so with some success. although i need to fine tune it. it would have worked for memphis tonite. just follow the teams that have hit 6+ ATS and then bet against them first for a unit, then 2, then 4, etc.. the only way you get burned bad is if a team hits 10 or 11 straight ATS.
The longest nba streak i have seen is 11.
Does anyone know the longset ATS streak in modern times?? I have not seen more than 8.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[WEEKENDALKI]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by brewster:
this is a new strategy I have been trying for the past week and half or so with some success. although i need to fine tune it. it would have worked for memphis tonite. just follow the teams that have hit 6+ ATS and then bet against them first for a unit, then 2, then 4, etc.. the only way you get burned bad is if a team hits 10 or 11 straight ATS.
Does anyone know the longset ATS streak in modern times?? I have not seen more than 8.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
The longest nba streak is i have seen is 11. It isn't bad, but doubling up takes serious balls.

 

[brewster]

RPM -

No, but it might be worth investigating.

I firmly believe that the oddsmakers adjust the line accordingly. I have an 8 year nba database, and the ATS results are so 50/50 it would scare you.

 

[RPM]

alki,

it takes balls, but it takes more bankroll than anything. if you had a big enough bankroll, its doable i think.

 

[brewster]

Weekend -

Thats exactly the problem! By 10 or 11 you could be laying 5 or 10 dimes

 

[RPM]

brewster,

i think someone told me about a baseball strategy that was similar to this.

if i recall it is to bet agaisnt teams that have won 4 in a row. i dont remember the exact numbers, but i think they are favored around 90% of the time, and only win like 45-50% of the time.

thus by betting the dogs, you turn a profit. only thing is, im not sure how many plays you will come up with by following it.

 

[RPM]

what about limiting the number of times you double up?

 

[WildBill]

Don't do it this close to the end of the year. Some losing teams really don't care one bit and their coaches can't get them to care. Mid-season it is rare to have a long ATS streak, but if a team gets the right mix of scheduling they can run off a bunch of games mostly by beating teams that have little motivation against them.

If you really want to play something like this just bet it twice, with the double on the second game. If the team covers both just lay off of them, no point in letting one team take you to the cleaners no matter what angle you are using. I sometimes use a method somewhat similar to this with NHL totals, but I don't double up and after two losses I just let it go.

 

[brewster]

I know in mlb, streaks of 7-8 are not that uncommon.

 

[SoundofSilence]

It's the Martingale method, and it has proven over and over again in Roulette, Blackjack, Sports gambling, etc, etc... that it is not profitable in the long-term.

It's the type of method that you hear guys at the bar talking about on how its foolproof - which is why you know its a surefire way to not win long-term.

 

[brewster]

wildbill -

agreed.. I am just gonna finish up with my 2 I am on. G.S. and Orlando.