Betting against the public has always been popular with a certain type of gambler. Simply put - betting against the public can offer some value because even square public money will move lines a little. Make sure you get opening lines from several major books and then track line movement, radical movement will usually indicate steam, but slow small moves is usually a sign of square or public money gradually moving a number. Rule of thumb is bet late against public money to get best the number. I am not sure if there is any source that specifically tracks public money (although there might be) it is more of a knack knowing what side the public is on. Hopefully others will share some thoughts on this interesting topic.
GL wil.
GL wil.
Good luck. Great idea in theory, but not the easiest thing to do in practice. Kind of like the concept of bet on the NFL team with the most rushing yards in a game. They cover a lot, but getting the proper prediction of who will have more yards before the game starts isn't always an exact science.
I'll address a couple of people at once:
Wild Bill- different concept IMO. Very difficult to work with rushing yards, turnovers, etc in that context because you are attempting to predict future events. Fading the public can be based on actual quantitative data before the game begins. If you have good sources, it is easy to tell when the "public" and the sharps have different opinions.
Red Eye- line movement alone doesn't tell you anything. The question is: who is moving the line? Sharps? Syndicates? Sometimes lack of line movement is more predictive - if the public money is almost entirely one-sided and the line isn't budging, you can imagine there are some heavy hitters on the other side propping it up.
General - sharper crowd in general, maybe. But still plenty of uninformed and square opinions to go around. Plenty of fade opps to be found here at the RX.
If you are trying to fade the public you need 2 things:
1. A good out where you can get the overinflated numbers. Most well-known is SIA.
2. Source of information on where the money is being played. Some use wagerline.com. some books are starting to provide this information also (caribsports.com is 1 I think). Longtime Rubber Room readers will also recall some good sources
Wild Bill- different concept IMO. Very difficult to work with rushing yards, turnovers, etc in that context because you are attempting to predict future events. Fading the public can be based on actual quantitative data before the game begins. If you have good sources, it is easy to tell when the "public" and the sharps have different opinions.
Red Eye- line movement alone doesn't tell you anything. The question is: who is moving the line? Sharps? Syndicates? Sometimes lack of line movement is more predictive - if the public money is almost entirely one-sided and the line isn't budging, you can imagine there are some heavy hitters on the other side propping it up.
General - sharper crowd in general, maybe. But still plenty of uninformed and square opinions to go around. Plenty of fade opps to be found here at the RX.
If you are trying to fade the public you need 2 things:
1. A good out where you can get the overinflated numbers. Most well-known is SIA.
2. Source of information on where the money is being played. Some use wagerline.com. some books are starting to provide this information also (caribsports.com is 1 I think). Longtime Rubber Room readers will also recall some good sources
