Betting against public opinion to gain an advantage

[BigGamesOnly]

It's a widely-held notion that the books adjust their lines to get in the middle of the bettors. So if the public were betting more toward a weaker team a person could realize this and bet on the stronger team with the better line.

I have been noticing that the public tends to bet more on the pitchers than the batters. This would lead me to believe that a person could have an advantage over the spread if a team's bats were not taken into advantage.

Another opportunity arises when a large population center or a popular team is bet on. It would seem to me that people would bet on a team such as this even in weaker situations. If this were true a person could bet against the weak team such as this and gain an advantage.

Does anyone think these ideas are valid or does anyone have any other ideas that would give a better an advantage against the public?

 

[VG789]

 

[Gridster]

The oddsmakers only look at a few criteria before cutting loose with the spread, pitching probably being the top one. You always have the advantage of taking a deeper look at a particular game than the oddsmakers do. If you want to look at the bats, go ahead. Sometimes I'll bet a BB game just based on double play frequency.

The market stuff probably only applies to local books. The exception being when the market is close to Vegas, such as in the Super Bowl last year. Normally, the bettors spreading the big cash around Vegas influence the lines the most, and they are pretty objective group.

 

[ATX]

when the public is all over one team and the line moves the opposite way in an attempt to lure even more action on the wrong side...

the win % of taking the anti-public team in this scenario is very, very good.

dont be fooled into thinking that sharp bookmakers want even action. It's like thinking that good handicappers only want to win 53% of the time and come out slightly ahead.

In the NBA last year I kept tabs on who the public was on (after the first month) and simply doing the opposite was very profitable. In the playoffs it wasnt. In college sports this angle is not nearly as good, it seemed to do a little better against road favorites.

 

[ATX]

In baseball I havent looked at fading the public much yet. It is a little more complicated because of the moneyline involved. You would need to compute the % hold versus the percentage of people on a team. If you have 62% of the people on a -110 favorite the book would do very well if the underdog won, obviously. If the same 62% were on a favorite of -180 things might be different.

 

[acw]

ATX,

when the public is all over one team
How do you know that the public is all over one team?

and the line moves the opposite way in an attempt to lure even more action on the wrong side...
So the line moves. Are line moves in general smart or stupid? Basically should one not simply follow the line move? Is there a difference between a book taking a position or the smart public in general with more money that makes the line move?
On the European football I have no clue who are behind line moves, but I do know that line moves on the European football make sense and following them is a good thing.

 

[ATX]

To know who the public is on I use several sources. I know several bookmakers located in different regions and they let me know who the square money is on and the line being offered. I also use some consensus sites. It's also necessary to point out that just because a lot of handicappers at the major forums are on a team does not necessarily mean that that is who the public is on. I dont really cruise any other forums at present, so I dont know if this has changed recently.

 

[ATX]

I dont think following line moves blindly is a good long term strategy. It used to be more profitable in years past from what people have told me. You also have to realize that this is frowned upon by the majority of sportsbooks, and I dont want to have any more of my limits dropped--some will do this even if you wager an hour before a big line move.

In American sports line moves can be complicated. In the NBA, many times 10 minutes before tip-off some of the books will move a line by a half point, even a full point, IMO to throw people to the wrong side, but this is just a side note. One of the reasons you have to be careful following line moves is you can never be sure that a line move is indicative of who the movers really want. In basketball (esp. NCAA) many times you will see a line move two points or more only to move back in the other direction shortly after. Some of the groups out there have enough financial leverage to create the line that they want by wagering on one side to move the number, and then coming back the other way a LOT stronger (plus the middle is possible). A lot of the books will over-compensate when they think that BW is going to strike, and I've seen discussion about how much a book should move the number when he hits them b/c of the middle opps created by moving too much.

Some line moves occur simply to generate business. A bookmaker's job is to create an opinion. If the line on a game doesnt generate much of an opinion then there isnt going to be much revenue on that game, so some books will move the number a little to see if they cant bring in more action. And when someone sees the line move, a follower may think that this game is being bet by a bunch of wiseguys and wager on the move (and then move it back to see if it works again on the other side).

Generally I feel better about a game I have wagered on if the line moves the way I feel it should. But every situation is different, sometimes I feel really good about a number and when the line moves the other way and it's not the public I dont hesitate to get down regardless. This past year in basketball I had many wagers against line moves (or wagered before a line move that went against me) and a lot of times it was puzzling. I read that piece about BW losing quite a bit in baskets this year, and I dont know how true that is, but I do know that a lot of line moves lost, maybe the two were related. I'm pretty good at guessing line moves, and a lot of times I wonder what the hell the books are thinking by hanging an obviously off number (such as Kansas State -24).

The main thing that I find relevant is how I perform with line moves and against them. More times than not a wager that I make is the same as the way that the line ends up moving. But I also track how wagers that I make against line moves fare, and so far they are still profitable. I think some of the line moves are based on trends such as team X has beaten team Y 10 straight times, and I dont wager on trends like this, I see value in many cases on the opposite.

Line moves are generally very good at the beginnings of sports seasons, esp. on totals. Line moves of 1.5 points or more on totals in the NFL and NBA showed quite a bit of profit for the first half of the season, if not more, last year (I decided to try to learn baseball this year, so I havent had time to go thru the 2nd halves of those. seasons yet)

 

[drunkguy]

excellent and informative post ATX.

Thanks.

 

[jwunderdog]

ATX, you hit the nail on the head about when public all over one side and line moves the other way,go a head and back the money Truck up, hits at a very high %. Tough part is figuring out when this is going to occur before the line moves. If you get good at this it works especially well in College BBAll, also in Col Foots.(this theory is probably the only reason I make money in those sports.)

 

[ShinySuitMan]

atx man i cant agree wif this angle enough!

just adding my beliefs on fading.. the way i see it is alot of people read what is written in the paper(hype)most of which is really balony!

how many people buy the paper everyday? how many of those people actually believe whats written in it? how many of these people actually come to conclusions themselfs?

if somfin is hot.. i fade it.. cause everyone one and there dog is on it! just like halladay yesterday for toronto at 191?! if somfin is hyped up alot i dont like it.. i actually hate it... its somfin i just do.. best part is its all about value when im putting down$ and thats what everyone in this forum should be striving for.. VALUE!

 

[Gridster]

There's booking, gambling and cheating, and the linemakers do all three.

If they're booking or gambling it doesn't bother me a bit, I'll beat them. Its fun to watch the syndicates and the middlers and the Vegas oddsmakers jockey back and forth without any regard to who is playing. I might try to take advantage of a line movement, but it doesn't scare me a bit if I'm on the public side or not. Besides, just from what I read in this forum it appears that there are so many anti-public players that they now constitute the public.

Then there's the cheating, which is rare in the NFL but it does exist. I'd rather not be involved in a fixed game and if I suspect something's up I'll lay off altogether. If I see a road team that I think should be favored by 7 and it comes out 3, and I can tell the money is on the favorite, and the line holds, I get real suspicious. If Vegas wants money on one side they could easily set the spread at 4 or 5, but you can tell when they're going for a wider market by setting the line ridiculously low. It kept me from losing money on the Titans/Dallas game last season. I was also going to pass on Philly -6 in the same situation against the Cows, but the line finally moved to 7 so I figured they just made a mistake and I went ahead and bet it. In that case I wasn't going to play unless I saw the line move against me.

 

[ATX]

...keep in mind that anything can change at any time, what has happened in the last two or three years is the most relevant thing in any market, and with good money management one can easily survive drastic short term changes.

Another line move that I forgot about is due to injury. I made a lot of money betting on the team that HAD the injury, and I hit a couple of middles, and I could have hit a few more if I had been looking in that direction. Now some injuries are definitely more substantial to a team than others. Things to consider are bench depth and degree of impact. I almost always take the team (in pro sports) that has the injury, esp if the public pushes the number 1.5 points or more, and in a lot of cases I try a weighted middle. Some players do have too much of a presence on the team, if they control the pace of the game, and contribute a lot of intangibles such as Jason Kidd then I usually pass. What happens when a player gets injured or sits out is the other players on that team step up their game and focus on being more effective--they know they have to perform better individually in order to fill in for the loss. A lot of times the dropoff from the injured player to backup is not really that large. One thing I have noticed is that on injury games the final score seems to land VERY close to the posted number in a lot of cases. The oddsmakers know what they are doing on these games.

I may post some of the injury games from last year, later.

 

[acw]

To be very honest I have not done enough investigations into the American sports, but what I do know is that at least on the NBA the real big money is being bet in Asia. And then not by the middlers, scalpers, siders and all other not real knowledgeable people of the sports, but made by the real gamblers like Harry the Dog that makes-up his prices in the early morning when he dries his arse with a hairdryer. The way it goes is that he makes a phone call to his bookie in Asia, asks for the prices on the European football, puts his US$10m bets on, asks for any NBA matches and if so has another US$1m on them, in case he cannot fall asleep after the European football has finished. The Asian market does not pay any attention at all to what is happening in the West! Zero point zero! Both on the European football and the NBA! It goes without saying that in the past some of the Asian books were smart enough to correct the Western prices, but after several No Pays, limit cuts, etc. they stopped betting especially in the Caribbean. Another issue is that the Asian NBA market closes long before the matches start basically allowing Caribbean books to play around with their nos. If the Asian market would have still been open, I am convinced some guys would get the Caribbean books that do silly things like moving the line on air big time! Those that still do these things on the European football like our big friend Ido from Internet1x2, well we all know where he is now.

 

[ATX]

one other thing...

I dont really agree with the statement that fading the public is a widely held notion. Dont confuse these forums as "the public". Most of the public doesnt know these places exist or visit them. People in forums represent a very small percentage of the money that is wagered. Most of the public takes about 5 seconds to choose the side they like and call it in or click it with a mouse. They dont know that they are taking a bad number or are part of millions of other dollars induced by a -6.5 on a team that "cant lose" even on the road. They truly think the bookmaker has made a big mistake by "giving" them that extra half point. I see it all the time, and typically they hit lines like this extra big or twice. The public doesnt know who the public is on or who the public is, and most of the public dont know how much they have lost and some think they are winning. Selective memory.

 

[ShinySuitMan]

atx man i think u got me all wrong man.. i didnt say these forums are the public.. all i said was sometimes(not just in here) the general consensus is all over one particular option for whatever reason... they all might win, they all might lose i dont know for sure.. but what i see is if the consensus and general feeling is one particular team cant lose.. i say otherwise! not always but in my opinion what the public believes is too good to be true it normally is!

i dont just fade the public and thats all i do! i actually look and see if it can happen.. most of what i do starts wif looking at a line then see what the public likes.. sometimes i agree wif the consensus.. most times i do not!then i do my homework

alot of people in this forum are great and have alot of good things to say.. in terms of me fading the public i dont mean fading anyone off this forum.. why do that? some of the best cappers i have ever seen are here?!

when i say public and what joe public does u r right man.. they dont know about these forums.. they dont wana listen to other peoples opinions.. all they wana do is unload on an option that looks like its too good to be true! most read the paper and believe what they read and see... they never do any actual thinking about their plays.. they have no idea why they play this particualr option, they just wana dump it!!!!

u have to develop skills of reading lines and box scores gathering stats for yourself.. i cant stress enough to learn more the importance of watching games(this is time consuming but if u can spare the time its highly recommended) and building your own thoughts on an upcoming game.. u cant just follow someone blindly.. this mite work for u sure.. but really are u dont feel the same satisfaction as for picking the winner yourself! and besides what if this particular person cant post their plays.. or get into the rx.. maybe they are locked up in jail lol(not naming any names)haha or maybe they have just found themselves a real nice hunny the nite before and are not available to post.. people have to play their own plays.. yea listen to others and learn.. or read thoughts from some of the very excelent posters here.. but dont just follow blindly.. and dont just believe what u read!

 

[ATX]

shiny,

it wasnt directed at you or anyone. It was simply the first few words that started this thread about a "widely held notion..."

in pro sports, generally the line is not moved by the public, but by sharp action with a differing opinion on value. Sure, after a certain volume by anyone a number is moved, this is necessary to limit exposure, but do you ever notice how far the number is moved, all at once in a lot of cases? It's more about who is respected.

 

[ShinySuitMan]

atx,

sorry man its cool i didnt take it as directed at me or anythin.. i know what u are saying

yea i have seen huge line moves(specially in totals in the NBA) regarding team information late with maybe an hour before tipoff(the knicks do this alot!) i not sure if its assistant coaches or people close to the team doing it.. yea but i have seen lines hit alot across the books.. normally i watch at cover, is there anywhere better for this? is there anywhere better for late team changes?

they had a situation in tennis just recently where this guy was betting on games where he knew where one player was going to retire injured.. and he had a 90% stike rate! the guy has changed the rules at most books now where the match has to now be completed otherwise the bet is void! and monies returned.. some books still have one serve rule

line moves of more then 1 and half definately have to be respected.. the goasting half point leans not so much... one particualr knick game i seen the total explode from 192 to 200 in like 10 mins!? the result would have been under if not for a few bonehead decisions at the end.. it was actually quite comical to me watching the game.. overtime was needed and the over was cashed by everyone!

 

[Gridster]

I think these forums are representative of the betting public. I'm definitely not bashing the crowd here, I just have a lot of respect for the public. My local book was struggling in the last few years before I split with them. They said that between cable TV and sports radio and the internet it was getting much harder to beat the players. There will always be so-called squares, uninformed bettors, but they either wash out or get it in gear quickly. I don't think there's enough of them at any one time who are betting enough cash to push the lines out of sync.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Wow! I see this is a hot topic that I started. Thanks to all for your most-informative posts.

When I started betting again (a little over a month ago) I noticed that most of the books had the same or similar numbers. Of course the first word that popped into my head was "collusion", the act of some or all books getting together to set lines. I can't believe all the books think the public will bet the same total or the same moneyline. But then again, if the totals between books were different, people would play the middles wouldn't they?