Bet this prop number...

HatTrick · Aug 20, 2007

Ummm...let's see..Total for his last start was set at 10.

Anti-liberal · Aug 20, 2007

HatTrick said:
Ummm...let's see..Total for his last start was set at 10.

At 10 flat, YES would be -130 to 140. I'd bet YES at -105 or better and NO at +125 or better, regardless of any stats.

HatTrick · Aug 20, 2007

The YES bets are usually at -130, -140. I haven't bet them since it's kinda steep but it's frustrating to watch them hit all the time while sitting on the sidelines. Thanks again.

Anti-liberal · Aug 20, 2007

HatTrick said:
The YES bets are usually at -130, -140. I haven't bet them since it's kinda steep but it's frustrating to watch them hit all the time while sitting on the sidelines. Thanks again.

You should almost NEVER lay -130 or -140 on YES. The only time I ever did that was in Colorado before they started using the Humidor and routinely had totals of 13 or higher. If you start laying -130's on YES, you'll get punished in the long run. Conversely, play YES at +140 or higher EVERY time you see it. I don't care if the total is 6 with Cy Young going against Walter Johnson.

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

Anti-liberal, your posts bring a tear to my eye. You are only the second person I've ever seen on any betting boards that knows how to determine the value on this prop. I bet this prop exclusively last year. Spread 1300 games over 8 different books using neteller and cleaned up. Without Neteller, its much much harder to move money around and hit the juicy lines. Are you finding much value this year?

chengkeke · Aug 21, 2007

so this is just for any team to score in the first inning only prop??

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

Yes, a score by either team in the first. The YES hits at about a 53% clip historically but as anti-liberal mentioned, the game's O/U is highly correlated to the YES success rate in terms of finding value.

schmeinz · Aug 21, 2007

so a high total such as 10.5 should have yes at a higher clip i.e -130

where as a low total should i.e. 7.5 should have yes at even or something of that nature

But when there are discrepencies in the lines like a 10.5 total having yes at + money wouldnt you want to go with the no because vegas is looking for the sucker money or is this different then line movement on the ML.

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

If you see a 10.5 at plus money, its only because someone already bet into the line from the NO side, creating a super juicy YES line for you. Because of the low limits and volumes on these prop bets, the line changes will be more volatile.

Anti-liberal · Aug 21, 2007

When you have 2500 games to bet on every season, there's always value to be found.

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

I suspect that neteller has reduced the ATM nature of this prop though. Greek and Bodog are the old stand-bys. What other books are you finding value at? I loved Greek last year because they would let you max out at each line change. Would then use Bowman's 20-cent prop lines and do a half-scalp for ridiculous net lines, sometimes up over +200 for a full unit. *sigh* Those were the days.

Anti-liberal · Aug 21, 2007

The thing about props is that you HAVE to know how to recognize value and you HAVE to know what you're doing, or you'll get the shit juiced out of you, because normally you're betting into a 20 or 30 cent line. Props can be dangerous to the novice. People get hurt.

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

Yup. Very few people know that this prop is by far the plum of a book's baseball offerings. The books will still shade toward the NO, although not as much as they used to as the public is slowly getting wiser. And then you still have the squares hitting the NO to help create more value.

Two winters ago, I spent a few weeks and created a 10000+ game database on this prop. It took some time, but it paid off well beyond my expectations.

TheKids · Aug 21, 2007

For the prop Guys

If you could comment on these lines, i think some of us might be able to get a better feel of it... I noticed a few things, like the Yes in the Angels/Yanks games has a better value then the Nats/Astros Over, but im not sure if there is value in either, or its more the value is in the no side... If you get a chance id appreciate it, Thx and GL
Toronto/Oakland 8-110, +105/-145

Atl/Reds 11.5-110, -145/+105

Milw/Dbacks 10-110, -135/-105

Cubs/Giants 8 Ov-115, -105/-135

LA/Phills 10.5-110, -140/+100

Clev/Tigers 10Un-115, -135/-105

Mariners/Twins 8.5Ov-125, -115/-125

Flor/Cards 9.5 Und-115, -130/-110

Nats/Astros 9OvFlat, -120/-120

SD/Mets 7.5Und-115, +105/-145

Pit/Col 11.5Ov-115, -150/+110

Tex/Balt 8 Un-120, -105/-135

RSox/Drays 10-110, -135/-105

KC/WSox 8.5-110, -115/-125

Yanks/Angels 9Ov-15, -110/-130

Anti-liberal · Aug 21, 2007

TheKids said:
If you could comment on these lines, i think some of us might be able to get a better feel of it... I noticed a few things, like the Yes in the Angels/Yanks games has a better value then the Nats/Astros Over, but im not sure if there is value in either, or its more the value is in the no side... If you get a chance id appreciate it, Thx and GL
Toronto/Oakland 8-110, +105/-145

Atl/Reds 11.5-110, -145/+105

Milw/Dbacks 10-110, -135/-105

Cubs/Giants 8 Ov-115, -105/-135

LA/Phills 10.5-110, -140/+100

Clev/Tigers 10Un-115, -135/-105

Mariners/Twins 8.5Ov-125, -115/-125

Flor/Cards 9.5 Und-115, -130/-110

Nats/Astros 9OvFlat, -120/-120

SD/Mets 7.5Und-115, +105/-145

Pit/Col 11.5Ov-115, -150/+110

Tex/Balt 8 Un-120, -105/-135

RSox/Drays 10-110, -135/-105

KC/WSox 8.5-110, -115/-125

Yanks/Angels 9Ov-15, -110/-130

What rat bastards are dealing a 40 cent line to you? There's nothing even close to a play on that card...their numbers are so perfect they won't get a bet...lol. Anyways, any illusion of value on this card is just that; an illusion. A 40 cent line makes up for a lot of bookie mistakes.

TheKids · Aug 21, 2007

Just a local offshore i have been using. When i was writting the props down i was thinking how hard it would be with the juice, lol. Ive been using them for my regular line movements, they arent as sharp as the other books, but i guess when you add in all that juice it doesnt matter with the props!
Never been into props, but i like the number logic behind it that you guys are using. When you post ill jump on, ill make sure to use a different offshore, lol. GL

TheKids · Aug 21, 2007

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>Other local offshore has em at 30 cents, whats the Norm?

Aug 21
</TD><TD>

3901
</TD><TD align=left>LOS/PHI YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-145<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204518_0_-145 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:05 PM </TD><TD>3902</TD><TD align=left>LOS/PHI NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+115<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204518_0_115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3903</TD><TD align=left>ATL/CIN YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-155<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204519_0_-155 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:10 PM </TD><TD>3904</TD><TD align=left>ATL/CIN NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+125<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204519_0_125 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3905</TD><TD align=left>SDG/METS YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+110<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204520_0_110 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:10 PM </TD><TD>3906</TD><TD align=left>SDG/METS NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-140<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204520_0_-140 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3907</TD><TD align=left>WAS/HOU YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>EV<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204521_0_100 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>8:05 PM </TD><TD>3908</TD><TD align=left>WAS/HOU NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-130<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204521_0_-130 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3909</TD><TD align=left>FLA/STL YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-130<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204522_0_-130 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>8:10 PM </TD><TD>3910</TD><TD align=left>FLA/STL NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>EV<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204522_0_100 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3911</TD><TD align=left>PIT/COL YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-155<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204523_0_-155 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>9:05 PM </TD><TD>3912</TD><TD align=left>PIT/COL NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+125<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204523_0_125 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3913</TD><TD align=left>MIL/ARI YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-140<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204524_0_-140 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>9:40 PM </TD><TD>3914</TD><TD align=left>MIL/ARI NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+110<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204524_0_110 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3915</TD><TD align=left>CUB/SFO YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+105<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204525_0_105 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>10:15 PM </TD><TD>3916</TD><TD align=left>CUB/SFO NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-135<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204525_0_-135 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3917</TD><TD align=left>OAK/TOR YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+115<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204526_0_115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:05 PM </TD><TD>3918</TD><TD align=left>OAK/TOR NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-145<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204526_0_-145 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3919</TD><TD align=left>TEX/BAL YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+105<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204527_0_105 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:05 PM </TD><TD>3920</TD><TD align=left>TEX/BAL NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-135<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204527_0_-135 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3921</TD><TD align=left>CLE/DET YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-140<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204528_0_-140 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:05 PM </TD><TD>3922</TD><TD align=left>CLE/DET NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+110<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204528_0_110 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3923</TD><TD align=left>BOS/TAM YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-145<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204529_0_-145 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>7:10 PM </TD><TD>3924</TD><TD align=left>BOS/TAM NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>+115<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204529_0_115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3925</TD><TD align=left>SEA/MIN YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>EV<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204530_0_100 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>8:10 PM </TD><TD>3926</TD><TD align=left>SEA/MIN NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-130<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204530_0_-130 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3927</TD><TD align=left>KAN/CWS YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>EV<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204531_0_100 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameOdd><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>8:10 PM </TD><TD>3928</TD><TD align=left>KAN/CWS NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-130<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204531_0_-130 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>Aug 21</TD><TD>3929</TD><TD align=left>NYY/LAA YES SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-115<INPUT type=checkbox value=4_204532_0_-115 name=text_></TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR class=TrGameEven><TD align=left>

</TD><TD align=left>10:05 PM </TD><TD>3930</TD><TD align=left>NYY/LAA NO SC 1ST INN</TD><TD align=right></TD><TD align=right>-115<INPUT type=checkbox value=5_204532_0_-115 name=text_></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

totalguy · Aug 21, 2007

Are those Bodog's lines? 40-cents is brutal. Anti-liberal won't agree but historical data shows that there are some overlays on the 10.5 lines and higher. 3.21% overlay on the Philly game, 3.10% overlay on the Pit game and 3.92% overlay on the Reds game. There is even a small 0.89% overlay on the Yanks game.

TheKids · Aug 21, 2007

Nope, local turned offshore. Both are. The first isnt as sharp, but has the 40 cent for props. The 2nd is quick, but as you can see only 30 cent. What the norm for prop totals?
Are you saying with that even with that kind of juice, the overlays will show long term profit? Trying to get my hands around this, thanks for the help