BET O THE DAY N.O./MIAMI

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A Separate Reality
Joined
Jan 14, 2002
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RECORD YTD 61-46 (.570)
SIDES 39-31 (.557)
TOTALS 22-15 (.594)

If one is prudent , that is, if one is as though made of marble, cold and inhumanely cautious, then definitely without a doubt, one can win as much as one wishes. Fyodor Dostoevsky, Author of the classic book, The Gambler.

Greed and Fear are the gamblers biggest enemies as he goes into battle in the field of probabilities. First greed. After a very profitable year betting Miami at home as a favorite, (20-6 going into the playoffs) I got greedy and way overextended myself in Miami's first game over New Orleans, (way over) only to lose it all.(Lost last game here) Fear set in and I froze and couldn't pull the trigger on any game. Which in hindsight turned out to be good, as I was able to watch the playoff matchups unfold. The playoffs have played out to form so far. First games the favorites dominated as they should, second games for the majority played to form with some of the dogs barking (Covering) and Milwacky biting. Third games have been right on form as teams down 0-2 and playing in must win situations in front of the home crowd have stepped up NY, MEMPHIS, HOUSTON all covered with Boston being the only loser.Today NO is at home down 0-2 and arguably facing the biggest game of their season. Miami's achilles heel is the road and their lack of playoff experience. Emotions are the X factor in Capping and emotion is on the New Orlean side today.

NEW ORLEANS-2.5-106 bought at Pinny.
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Since emotions play a big part in gambling, I had to check myself and make sure that this was not an emotional revenge play against my Miami loss. I don't think it is.

I post em you bet em if you like em.
 

Professional At All Times
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OccamsRazor:

Best of luck with the Hornets today. Respect your patience and selectivity. For what it's worth, I like this play as well today. Just not posting until all Game 3's are completed.
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A Separate Reality
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Game plays to form as a desperate 0-2 team shows up at home again. 0-2 teams are now 4-1 ATS for all the fundamentally right emotional reasons.

UNDER also in form comes in again for the seventh straight time. Capp each game as a mutually exclusive event first, then worry about trends. Saw many people get caught up in the 'gamblers fallacy' or 'due theory' and say that the OVER was due. In hindsight, all fundamental factors pointed to the UNDER and it came in, no tricks, no mirrors. The OVER play was a hope play as in, "I hope it goes over".

Congrats to those on N.O. today
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OldManTed: I also respect your patience and selectivity and look forward to reading your reasoning on your selections. For what its worth, I pressed my play after you said you also liked N.O. In other words it was worth it.
 

Professional At All Times
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OccamsRazor:

Glad to hear you pressed your play. Nice win!
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My pick for tomorrow with reasoning is up and posted. Continued good capping throughout the playoffs.
 

New member
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Nice hit Razor! It's great to see you back and up to your winning ways.

Congrats
GP
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A Separate Reality
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Denver and Dallas covered tonight. Making desperate 0-2 teams playing at home 6-1 ATS.

Home teams have been cleaning up ATS so far in the playoffs.
 

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