[h=1]Best value bets at Augusta[/h][h=3]Contenders and long shots to win the title, plus matchups and prop bets[/h]By Alf Musketa | ESPN Insider
Once again the sports world and the sports betting public will concentrate on the greatest golf event at Augusta National. For the casual sports bettor this tournament will offer more odds, head-to-head matchups, round-by-round props and winning score props than any other golf event. This is the Super Bowl for golf bettors, and it's just a shame that Tiger Woods isn't able to participate this year.
We would have relished the chance to bet against Tiger in almost every matchup we could have found. And betting against players rather than on them, especially those who are struggling with their game, is a key handicapping factor to beating matchups. Your focus should be on current form because I firmly believe that Augusta will expose any weaknesses in one's game, mainly a player's short game.
There are very few changes to the golf course this year (no, I'm not going to elaborate on the Eisenhower Tree removal). More than likely Augusta will favor bombers off the tee. Yes, Zach Johnson and Mike Weir were short hitters who won, but Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Angel Cabrera stand a much better chance at another green jacket. Rain early in the week will soften the track a bit, but the tournament days look to be sunny or partly cloudy with little wind. That should bring the field close together.
We'll see a record 24 rookies or first-timers teeing it up at Augusta this week, and some of those are multiple winners already on the PGA Tour this season. Are they worth a futures-book bet? Does experience play too much of a factor that first-time starters should be bet against in matchups?
I'll answer those questions and more as we break down my contenders, long shots, top matchups and props this week at Augusta.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Las Vegas
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Phil Mickelson (10-1)
When Mickelson plays well the week before a major, he is deadly. He won the 2013 British Open after winning the Scottish Open the week before, and, last week in Houston with his T-12 finish, I saw signs of brilliant approach shots and short game magic that will make Mickelson contend at Augusta again. Sure, he's not 100 percent with a muscle injury and has not won yet this year, but, with three wins, seven top-10s and the best scoring average (68.5) in the past 10 years in this event, he has to be near the top of my contenders list.
Patrick Reed (35-1)
This year's crop of rookies at Augusta might just be the best ever. Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Chris Kirk, Matt Every and Reed have won a combined 11 times on the PGA Tour in the past 18 months. Yes, I think a first-time starter can win this year, and, if the bookmakers post the right matchup, I will not hesitate to back such a player head-to-head.
Experience is a worthy factor at Augusta and in majors, but these guys have brought their A-game to the leaderboard every week. Reed has more experience than the others on this track, having played Augusta National many times in his college golf career, including winning an NCAA championship twice with Augusta State. "Mr. Top 5" is the most underrated player in the field in my opinion.
Henrik Stenson (25-1)
Stenson is a ball-striking machine and has the tools to win on this track. He's long off the tee, posting a 291.6-yard average with his drive; can curve his tee ball left or right with his trusty 3-wood; putts well on fast greens; and, after winning the money title on the PGA and European tours last season, a major win is the next step. I look for Stenson to improve upon his best finish of 18th place in this tournament last season.
Matt Kuchar (18-1)
With back-to-back weeks when Kuchar had the lead on Sunday but didn't come away with a win, you might say he is choking or mentally he has no chance this week at the first major of the year. After the final round at the Shell Houston Open, here's what he had to say: "I'm getting better every week."
You've got to love Kuchar's attitude, as he's always smiling. Technically, he's right about his improvement, with a fourth place at the Valero Texas Open and runner-up last week, and he'd gladly take the green jacket over any tournament in Texas. He tied for eighth place last season; he was T-3 in 2012; and his short game and putting are sharper than those of any other player coming to Augusta.
[h=3]Long shots[/h]
Angel Cabrera (50-1)
If you recall last year's tournament, Cabrera hit one of the all-time greatest shots under pressure on the 72nd hole: a 7-iron to two feet, nearly chipped in on the first playoff hole and lipped out on the second playoff hole to fall to eventual winner Adam Scott. Cabrera missed the cut this year in Tampa Bay and at Bay Hill, however, you could see a spark in his opening-round 68 last week and see that Cabrera can play anywhere, especially in majors.
I'm convinced he used last week in Houston strictly as a tuneup. Fast-forward to this week with his son on the bag again at Augusta and four top-20 finishes in the past four years. Cabrera is a great value at 50-1.
Rickie Fowler (75-1)
Since working with new swing coach Butch Harmon, Fowler has looked solid. With his swing shortened, irons crisper and a better demeanor overall, this young prodigy has what it takes to win at Augusta. His go-to draw will pay dividends, as no less than seven holes bend right to left off the tee. He is a very good putter under pressure and has never missed the cut in this event.
Gary Woodland (100-1)
He is perhaps the best athlete on the PGA Tour today. When he needs to be, he is the longest hitter in the game. No doubt Woodland has the talent, length and desire to win a green jacket, but he just needs to put it all together. He has good current form, with five top-20 finishes in seven stroke-play events this season.
If soft conditions prevail at Augusta, he moves way up the leaderboard on strength alone. I recommend playing most of your tournament bankroll on matchups but also placing a few future-book odds plays on players with upside potential. At 100-1, we have a ticket on Woodland.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Fred Couples minus-110 over Nick Watney
Couples' record in this event is well documented, but, as he gets older and plays mostly on the Champions Tour, one tends to think he can't get around this hilly and demanding track. But we know better, and so does Couples, placing 13th, 12th, 15th and sixth the past four years. Watney has not played on the PGA Tour since he withdrew with a back injury four weeks ago at Doral.
Rickie Fowler minus-105 over Hideki Matsuyama
This is another play against a golfer who has not performed in quite some time. Matsuyama finished T-34 in the WGC-Cadillac Championship, but has not teed it up anywhere on the planet since a wrist injury. This matchup is a no-brainer on Fowler, who has superior current form.
Matt Kuchar minus-120 over Jason Day
Kuchar isn't getting much respect here, and the linesmakers are saying Kuchar's collapse is real and Day is healthy. I couldn't disagree more. Kuchar is in form. Day, who has taken cortisone injections for a left thumb injury, has practiced plenty lately, but there is a big difference between the two.
To quote legendary Augusta National founder Bobby Jones, "There's golf and then there's tournament golf, and the two are not related." Day's last tournament was a win in February at the WGC Accenture Match Play. This isn't match play, and Day will be rusty to say the least. This matchup line opened Day minus-135, but Kuchar is now a minus-120-to-minus-125 favorite in most places. I agree with the move.
[h=3]Props[/h]
Best 18-hole Score: Over/Under 65.5
I have the under as a strong play here, and the line is a big reason for that. Do not bet under 65, as the half a stroke is worth 60 cents and maybe more. If the number were 65, we would need a score of 64 to win. That's a huge difference.
Pick: Under
Once again the sports world and the sports betting public will concentrate on the greatest golf event at Augusta National. For the casual sports bettor this tournament will offer more odds, head-to-head matchups, round-by-round props and winning score props than any other golf event. This is the Super Bowl for golf bettors, and it's just a shame that Tiger Woods isn't able to participate this year.
We would have relished the chance to bet against Tiger in almost every matchup we could have found. And betting against players rather than on them, especially those who are struggling with their game, is a key handicapping factor to beating matchups. Your focus should be on current form because I firmly believe that Augusta will expose any weaknesses in one's game, mainly a player's short game.
There are very few changes to the golf course this year (no, I'm not going to elaborate on the Eisenhower Tree removal). More than likely Augusta will favor bombers off the tee. Yes, Zach Johnson and Mike Weir were short hitters who won, but Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Angel Cabrera stand a much better chance at another green jacket. Rain early in the week will soften the track a bit, but the tournament days look to be sunny or partly cloudy with little wind. That should bring the field close together.
We'll see a record 24 rookies or first-timers teeing it up at Augusta this week, and some of those are multiple winners already on the PGA Tour this season. Are they worth a futures-book bet? Does experience play too much of a factor that first-time starters should be bet against in matchups?
I'll answer those questions and more as we break down my contenders, long shots, top matchups and props this week at Augusta.
Note: Odds courtesy of William Hill.US Las Vegas
[h=3]Contenders[/h]
Phil Mickelson (10-1)
When Mickelson plays well the week before a major, he is deadly. He won the 2013 British Open after winning the Scottish Open the week before, and, last week in Houston with his T-12 finish, I saw signs of brilliant approach shots and short game magic that will make Mickelson contend at Augusta again. Sure, he's not 100 percent with a muscle injury and has not won yet this year, but, with three wins, seven top-10s and the best scoring average (68.5) in the past 10 years in this event, he has to be near the top of my contenders list.
Patrick Reed (35-1)
This year's crop of rookies at Augusta might just be the best ever. Jimmy Walker, Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Chris Kirk, Matt Every and Reed have won a combined 11 times on the PGA Tour in the past 18 months. Yes, I think a first-time starter can win this year, and, if the bookmakers post the right matchup, I will not hesitate to back such a player head-to-head.
Experience is a worthy factor at Augusta and in majors, but these guys have brought their A-game to the leaderboard every week. Reed has more experience than the others on this track, having played Augusta National many times in his college golf career, including winning an NCAA championship twice with Augusta State. "Mr. Top 5" is the most underrated player in the field in my opinion.
Henrik Stenson (25-1)
Stenson is a ball-striking machine and has the tools to win on this track. He's long off the tee, posting a 291.6-yard average with his drive; can curve his tee ball left or right with his trusty 3-wood; putts well on fast greens; and, after winning the money title on the PGA and European tours last season, a major win is the next step. I look for Stenson to improve upon his best finish of 18th place in this tournament last season.
Matt Kuchar (18-1)
With back-to-back weeks when Kuchar had the lead on Sunday but didn't come away with a win, you might say he is choking or mentally he has no chance this week at the first major of the year. After the final round at the Shell Houston Open, here's what he had to say: "I'm getting better every week."
You've got to love Kuchar's attitude, as he's always smiling. Technically, he's right about his improvement, with a fourth place at the Valero Texas Open and runner-up last week, and he'd gladly take the green jacket over any tournament in Texas. He tied for eighth place last season; he was T-3 in 2012; and his short game and putting are sharper than those of any other player coming to Augusta.
[h=3]Long shots[/h]
Angel Cabrera (50-1)
If you recall last year's tournament, Cabrera hit one of the all-time greatest shots under pressure on the 72nd hole: a 7-iron to two feet, nearly chipped in on the first playoff hole and lipped out on the second playoff hole to fall to eventual winner Adam Scott. Cabrera missed the cut this year in Tampa Bay and at Bay Hill, however, you could see a spark in his opening-round 68 last week and see that Cabrera can play anywhere, especially in majors.
I'm convinced he used last week in Houston strictly as a tuneup. Fast-forward to this week with his son on the bag again at Augusta and four top-20 finishes in the past four years. Cabrera is a great value at 50-1.
Rickie Fowler (75-1)
Since working with new swing coach Butch Harmon, Fowler has looked solid. With his swing shortened, irons crisper and a better demeanor overall, this young prodigy has what it takes to win at Augusta. His go-to draw will pay dividends, as no less than seven holes bend right to left off the tee. He is a very good putter under pressure and has never missed the cut in this event.
Gary Woodland (100-1)
He is perhaps the best athlete on the PGA Tour today. When he needs to be, he is the longest hitter in the game. No doubt Woodland has the talent, length and desire to win a green jacket, but he just needs to put it all together. He has good current form, with five top-20 finishes in seven stroke-play events this season.
If soft conditions prevail at Augusta, he moves way up the leaderboard on strength alone. I recommend playing most of your tournament bankroll on matchups but also placing a few future-book odds plays on players with upside potential. At 100-1, we have a ticket on Woodland.
[h=3]Matchups[/h]
Fred Couples minus-110 over Nick Watney
Couples' record in this event is well documented, but, as he gets older and plays mostly on the Champions Tour, one tends to think he can't get around this hilly and demanding track. But we know better, and so does Couples, placing 13th, 12th, 15th and sixth the past four years. Watney has not played on the PGA Tour since he withdrew with a back injury four weeks ago at Doral.
Rickie Fowler minus-105 over Hideki Matsuyama
This is another play against a golfer who has not performed in quite some time. Matsuyama finished T-34 in the WGC-Cadillac Championship, but has not teed it up anywhere on the planet since a wrist injury. This matchup is a no-brainer on Fowler, who has superior current form.
Matt Kuchar minus-120 over Jason Day
Kuchar isn't getting much respect here, and the linesmakers are saying Kuchar's collapse is real and Day is healthy. I couldn't disagree more. Kuchar is in form. Day, who has taken cortisone injections for a left thumb injury, has practiced plenty lately, but there is a big difference between the two.
To quote legendary Augusta National founder Bobby Jones, "There's golf and then there's tournament golf, and the two are not related." Day's last tournament was a win in February at the WGC Accenture Match Play. This isn't match play, and Day will be rusty to say the least. This matchup line opened Day minus-135, but Kuchar is now a minus-120-to-minus-125 favorite in most places. I agree with the move.
[h=3]Props[/h]
Best 18-hole Score: Over/Under 65.5
I have the under as a strong play here, and the line is a big reason for that. Do not bet under 65, as the half a stroke is worth 60 cents and maybe more. If the number were 65, we would need a score of 64 to win. That's a huge difference.
Pick: Under
