best SYSTEMS & PLAYS for week 4

[w365]

game #1

A 3-0 team from Big 10 is favored by only 7 at home against a 1-2 Sun Belt team. That fact already looks fishy, without any further research. But if look deep inside, we will find out why this line is so low.

Under .500 Sun Belt teams in non conference games, not underdogs of 17.5+ pts are 22-6 ATS in last 28 following a loss of 10-50 pts.

The linemakers have had a very good read on these two teams so far this season. Minnesota was tagged as a small to average home favorite in week 1 against NIU, and the whole nation was backing them. The game ended up in a 3pts MIN win and a no cover. NIU was able to outpass MIN and to match them score by score and even to take a lead in the 4th quarter. Minnesota scored the game winning points with 22 seconds left.
MIN then went to Bowling Green, a team that upset then ranked Pittsburgh team, on the road in week 1, and the Gophers were a 6.5 dog in that game early on. The public was all over BGR but the line closed at only -3.5. Minnesota won that game big on the road, but not because they were a better team but simply because it was a classic letdown game for Bowling Green. The Gophers won by 25 but they were outpassed 261-233 and outrushed in yards per carry 4.9 vs 3.6. Last week Minnesota played against a Div. I-AA team that is not even ranked in the top 25 FCS Coaches Pool and they won by only 12, at home, while being outgained and completely dominated in first downs and time of possession. Florida Atlantic started the season as a huge underdog at Texas, and they were completely outplayed against maybe the most underrated big name school. Then they went home and outscored UAB, a team that is very underrated this season, and they covered the -13 spread. Finally, they went to Michigan State last week, and got either a cover or a push for their backers, despite the fact that the whole nation was on the Spartans in this one. I firmly believe that their last week's game would be much better in a normal weather, but since FAU is a strictly passing team, they were struggling mightly against MCST.

If you think that MIN is due for a big REVENGE game here, and that these usually win and cover, take a look at this system (FAU beat MIN last year)

Home favorites of at least a fg and not more than 10 pts revenging a road favorite loss of 3 pts or less are only 34-75 ATS.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC +7

 

[jeff_tweedy]

awesome insight and writeup bro. thank you. I'm with Fla Atlantic.

 

[sdf]

i get 66-32 with the system (mine only goes back to 1981)

and WF +4.5 also falls into it

not bad. thanks

 

[Jetplane]

Speaking of which... MIN is terrible lol.

 

[sdf]

since 1997 season

ATS: 23-26-3 (-0.6) avg line: -6.7


not very profitable IMO

 

[w365]

game #2

#15 team in the nation with a 3-0 record is favored by only 7.5 against a 1-2 team that went 5-7 last year and 3-9 the year before. Another fishy line. What is common for these two teams except for the word 'Carolina' in their name ? Both perform much better in the underdog role. ECU is 22-8 ATS in last 30 as underdogs and 11-14 ATS in last 15 as favorites. NCST is 23-16 ATS in last 39 as underdogs and 9-22 ATS in last 31 as favorites. In head-to-head matchups, the dog has won teh game outright last two seasons. NCST was 1-5 last season when they went to ECU and upset the 4-3 ECU. ECU is ranked for a good reason, but as I stated last week when I went with Tulane (who covered at home against ECU and almost won the game), their 2 ranked opponents in week 1 and 2 were not nearly as good as touted early in the season. VT is garbage and WVU is overrated. Tulane is not a good football team either, just playing with a lot of pride and emotions right now. They will crack down soon, maybe even this week. ECU stil played very well against their opponents so far but they are not really healthy going into this game. They lost two key starters last week in Cotton and Bryant and several others are either questionable or probable and did not practice this week ( Lee, Best, Bell, Chambliss and Mitchell). NCST looks pathetic on offense but their defense has been able to keep it relatively close. With this being a home rivalery game, I expect their offense to wake up and put enough points on the board to keep it close. They were down 3-0 at half time @ South Carolina and down 8 @ Clemson last week after three quarters. Their defense is improving and should match the very good ECU defense.

Once again the linemakers know very well two teams we are talking about. They tagged ECU as small dogs in first two games against ranked opponents to get as much action as possible on WVU and VT and that's what they got. ECU covered both times. Then they asked for the ECU action last week and they got it, and then Tulane covered the number. The same thing is happening now with a low line that screams ECU.

Not many people expected NCST to keep it close and cover against Clemson on the road last week, but they did it, and collected the cash for the books.


3-0 teams favored by less than 11 at 1-2 teams are 7-21 ATS in last 28 with 5 of those 7 that covered playing a conference foe. This is a non conference game here.


NCST +7.5

 

[sdf]

i got 6-11 ATS since 1981
hmmm

 

[w365]

i got 6-11 ATS since 1981
hmmm

what are you talking about ?

 

[w365]

since 1997 season

ATS: 23-26-3 (-0.6) avg line: -6.7


not very profitable IMO

not sure what you are talking about here either ?

 

[sdf]

not sure what you are talking about here either ?

system #1

http://tinyurl.com/68qv64

66-32 since 1981. not bad at all. 67%. sorta matches your record.

but if you look from 1997-2008, the record is 22-25. which isnt that profitable. this system was good prior to 1997 but since then not so much

 

[sdf]

what are you talking about ?

when i ran your system #2 from 1981-2007 i got

http://b2b.sportsdatabase.com/ncaaf...&submit=query&same_season_p=1&same_season_P=0


which is 6-11 ATS. not sure why we differ on so many games. maybe mine is being too restrictive

 

[w365]

my database goes as far as '77 and it has a whole lot more of info, that no other database on the net has, like official weather reports, official injury releases, my power ratings associated to each team, etc and i update it daily, for many years now, game by game. no way it misses something and no way it has any erronous info. anyways, good luck with what you use.

 

[sdf]

my database goes as far as '77 and it has a whole lot more of info, that no other database on the net has, like official weather reports, official injury releases, my power ratings associated to each team, etc and i update it daily, for many years now, game by game. no way it misses something and no way it has any erronous info. anyways, good luck with what you use.

yeah, i never claimed yours was wrong.

i did state that the first system from 1997-today is only hitting about 50%.
do you see the same or different? because from 1981-today the numbers are very close.

 

[w365]

game #3

A ranked 3-0 team that won its first three games by 56, 31 and 42 pts is favored by 28.5 at home against a 1-2 team on two games losing streak against UConn and Buffalo. PSU beat Temple 31-0 on the road last season. Kinda fishy. The line should be a little bit higher.

Scouting PSU's ytd opponents;

How bad is Syracuse ? Well, the other two teams that beat Syracuse this season, failed to cover the spread in their next game. NW kinda struggled with SU but stil covered the line, only to barely beat Duke without covering the spread in their next game. Akron came to Syracuse and beat them by 14, only to lose by 17 to Ball State the next week.

How bad is Oregon State ? Well certainly not as bad as Syracuse, but not a very good team overall. The only team other than PSU that won against ORST was Stanford, and as soon as they got the job done against the Beavers, they got crushed by ASU and TCU, straight up and against the spread.

How bad is Coastal Carolina ? They are currently the 2nd worst team in the Big South. How bad is Big South ? Probably the 6th worst FCS conf.


I'm not saying that Temple is much better than these other three teams, but at least they were expected to improve this season, and so far they did. They dismantled Army on the road withour really spending any energy in that game. That was the only game so far that they were supposed and expected to win, and they won, and covered the spread. They were not expected to challenge UConn, but they did, taking them to OT and covering the spread. They were expected to lose @ Buffalo, another up and comming team, and they did, but barely, covering the spread in the proces. They are 3-0 ATS on the season and 16-7 ATS in last 23. Keeping it close against a Buffalo team that destroyed UTEP in week 1 and then challenged Pittsburgh in week 2 is quite an accomplishment for Temple. Taking Uconn to overtime was even more impressive. That same UConn team destroyed Virginia last week.

PSU opens up their conference schedule next week with a revenge game vs Illinois. PSU has a history of failure before either playing their first conference game or before hosting their first one. Last year they struggled big time against Buffalo before opening their conference schedule vs Michigan. In 2005 they failed to cover the spread against NW before hosting their first conference game against then mighty MIN. In 2003 they failed to cover against Kent before hosting their conference opener against MIN.

Last week they jumped all over Syracuse early and even PSU was surprised how bad and pathetic Syracuse was. They pulled out quite a few starters after that but even then the Orange was unable to do anything.

The public was all over PSU in last two games, especially last week, and they will be all over them this week again. The books were unable to put a line high enough in these two games, so why the linemakers are stil hoping for more PSU money here ? My guess is: because Temple will keep it close.

28+ underdogs revenging a loss in which they scored 0 points and allowed less than 42 are 17-3 ATS if the opponent opens its conference schedule the following week.

Temple +28.5

 

[fadethepublic1]

HEY w365,
Where did you post before this year? Or did you just change your username? I see you've only been here a couple months? Good to you have your much infinite information though.

 

[w365]

HEY w365,
Where did you post before this year? Or did you just change your username? I see you've only been here a couple months? Good to you have your much infinite information though.

used to post @ majorwager and statfox but those places are ghost cities now (their forums at least). also used to post my hoops and tennis on 2 euro sites. glad to be here.

:toast:

 

[w365]

yeah, i never claimed yours was wrong.

i did state that the first system from 1997-today is only hitting about 50%.
do you see the same or different? because from 1981-today the numbers are very close.

close but not exactly the same. did you use the same criterias ? did you include the pushes as pushes ? is your database using opening or closing lines ? that's where the difference could be.

gl this week %^_

 

[w365]

game #4

I've already said several times what I think of Tulane. Not the most talented team out there, but they have been playing with lots of emotions in first two games. Alabama fans gave them a standing ovation just for showing up and playing that game and Tulane responded with a solid offensive performance and a pesky defense that made Alabama look pretty bad. Then they followed that with a great effort vs ECU, almost pulling an upset in front of their home crowd against a nationally ranked team. Both times they were doing it against all odds, when no one expected them to perform well. But this time around they are supposed to beat a 1-2 LAMO team that was quickly forgotten after their almost upset of Arkansas, because they played against a FCS school ALA A&M last week. Tulane is a 0-2 team that many people talked about last two weeks because of their 2 almost upsets and a 2-0 ATS record. They have been the bookie darlings this season but it looks like the Cinderella story is comming to an end. Now that they are noticed, they are laying 'only 6.5' against a 1-2 SBC team and everyone is expecting them to beat this number. This could be the day where the real Tulane shows up. The one who is 1-3 ats in their last 4 as favorite and that record goes several years back as they are not favored all that often.

LAMO could very well challenge Troy and FAU for the conference title this season. They came close to upseting a not so good SEC team in Arkansas (that was a fishy line as well that was screaming ARKANSAS) but they also played much better than what the final score tells us in their loss to Auburn. Auburn didn't have an offensive TD in the first half and took a 17 pts lead thanks to a punt returned for TD, a 9 yrds fumble return for TD and a field goal.

0-2 teams favored at home by 3.5 to 7.5 pts are only 5-30 ATS in last 35 against the opponent with less than 2 wins.

This system also applies to my game #5

Louisiana Monroe+7 -120 (buying it up from +6.5)





game #5

The books expected UTEP to steal the cover against Texas in their last game and they almost did. They outgained Texas but lost 42-13. That tells me that they are not very efficient on offense or on defense. When your offense keeps the ball for 36+ minutes, pile up 412 yards and score 14 pts, something is very wrong there. And when your defense allows over 400 yards of offense and 42 pts against an opponent who had 22 minutes of possession, something is not right your defense regardless how good that opponent is.

NMXST has one guy who's been able to fully exploit this weak UTEP defense twice in his career. His name is Chase Holbrook. In his two career starts against UTEP, he is 2-0, 84/121 for 940 yards and 7TD/2 Int. After his poor showing at Nebraska, I expect him to bounce back against a team that he knows well with a defense that has no confidence at all right now.

UTEP is 1-12 ATS in last 13 as favorite losing last 5 straight up.

The system posted in my game #4 writeup applies here as well.

New Mexico State +7



game #6


Fresno State is getting all the love this week which is not a surprise for a nationally ranked team that is laying only a TD on the road against a lowly 1-1 Toledo. Many fans have seen Fresno play Wisky taugh last week and absolutely killing then highely regarded Rutgers the week before that.

What not many teams have seen is this Toledo team playing their asses off at home year after year, vs any team that comes to their place, good or bad, it just doesn't matter. They are 44-6 straight up in last 50 home games and 21-9 ATS in last 30 home games.

It is not going to be an early eastern time game for a wc team but it is going to be a long trip for fresno for the second time in less than 20 days with a home game vs a physicall Wisconsin team mixed in between the two road games and a road game against UCLA next week. UCLA is not good by any means, but for a WAC team any game vs a PAC 10 team is huge and they are looking ahead to that.

Favorites of less than 14 pts are only 38-77 ATS before playing UCLA.

Fresno has been know as a team that upsets some big schools every now and then, but they are also known as a really bad favorite after a dog loss. (2-12 ATS in last 14)

Toledo +7

 

[seventypercent]

lots of information, good stuff....lets get you and sdf on the same page with some love and look out.

good luck and thanks for info again

 

[w365]

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another toledo trend:

11-1 ats as home dog after a road game.

6-0 ats home dog after a road win.

they destroyed emu last week 41-17 at emu (led 41-7 after the third)

this same emu team lost 10-42 at michigan state and they were tied at 7 late in the 1st half.

toledo has a great home field advantage in both college football and college basketball.