[h=1]Best Super Bowl LI value bets after free agency shuffling[/h]Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- With the NFL free-agent feeding frenzy behind us, it's a good time to check the updated NFL future-book board to see whether we can find any betting value.
Even though approximately 60 players have changed teams, when it comes to the odds in Las Vegas, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
The Houston Texans were 40-1 on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's 2017 Super Bowl futures list back on Feb 1. They signed free-agent running backLamar Miller from the Miami Dolphins and then lured Denver Broncos heir apparent QB Brock Osweiler from the world champions. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">And now the Texans' odds to win the Super Bowl are ... 40-1?</offer>
In one of the most-publicized free-agent moves, Robert Griffin III signed with the Cleveland Browns, who were 200-1 as of Feb. 1. And they're still the team with the highest odds at 200-1.
If you go down the list of teams and think of the free-agent signings that have boosted confidence among their respective fan bases, you'll see there's been little to no impact reflected in their odds.
That being said, I'm sticking with my future-book value bets that I made here at ESPN Chalk right after Super Bowl 50: the Atlanta Falcons (40-1) and Houston Texans (40-1).
I've already mentioned the two major free-agent signings by the Texans, and while these moves haven't lowered their odds, it's encouraging that management is making the moves to improve the team that we assumed they would.
The Falcons' acquisitions haven't caused as much of a media splash, but defensive end Derrick Shelby (from Miami) and linebacker Courtney Upshaw (from Baltimore) should add to Atlanta's depth -- with more hopefully on the way in the draft. The Falcons also addressed a big need by getting center Alex Mack (from Cleveland) to help anchor the offensive line.
Those are the only teams I've bet so far, but I'm keeping an eye on one of the top contenders.
When the Westgate opened the Super Bowl LI future book back in January, it made the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers the tri-favorites at 8-1. Since then, the Patriots took over as favorites at 7-1, and their odds dropped even further, down to 6-1, as of Thursday morning. But that's not who I'm talking about.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were my top value bet last season. That was obviously a losing bet, but I still believe it was a good play; they had a lot of injuries (QBBen Roethlisberger was out for various parts of the season, Le'Veon Bell missed the second half and Antonio Brown missed the division playoff game at Denver), and yet they were beating the eventual champion Broncos in Denver before a fourth-string running back fumbled and turned the game around.
If the Steelers can stay just a little bit healthier, they're going to be right in the mix again -- and I'm excited by the fact that they've drifted up to 10-1. The market obviously doubts them, but put them down as my third value bet for Super Bowl LI.
(Note: In my Feb. 8 article, I mentioned the Minnesota Vikings as a potential play at 20-1. I am high on them for the upcoming season and see a bigger upside than their NFC North rival Green Bay, but I didn't pull the trigger and the Vikes are now down to 16-1 at the Westgate. While I'm encouraged that it appears sharp bettors have jumped on the Minny bandwagon, they've lost a little value -- but if you find them at 20-1 or higher, the Vikings could be worth a flier.)
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Super Bowl LI Odds</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot></aside>
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- With the NFL free-agent feeding frenzy behind us, it's a good time to check the updated NFL future-book board to see whether we can find any betting value.
Even though approximately 60 players have changed teams, when it comes to the odds in Las Vegas, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
The Houston Texans were 40-1 on the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's 2017 Super Bowl futures list back on Feb 1. They signed free-agent running backLamar Miller from the Miami Dolphins and then lured Denver Broncos heir apparent QB Brock Osweiler from the world champions. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">And now the Texans' odds to win the Super Bowl are ... 40-1?</offer>
In one of the most-publicized free-agent moves, Robert Griffin III signed with the Cleveland Browns, who were 200-1 as of Feb. 1. And they're still the team with the highest odds at 200-1.
If you go down the list of teams and think of the free-agent signings that have boosted confidence among their respective fan bases, you'll see there's been little to no impact reflected in their odds.
That being said, I'm sticking with my future-book value bets that I made here at ESPN Chalk right after Super Bowl 50: the Atlanta Falcons (40-1) and Houston Texans (40-1).
I've already mentioned the two major free-agent signings by the Texans, and while these moves haven't lowered their odds, it's encouraging that management is making the moves to improve the team that we assumed they would.
The Falcons' acquisitions haven't caused as much of a media splash, but defensive end Derrick Shelby (from Miami) and linebacker Courtney Upshaw (from Baltimore) should add to Atlanta's depth -- with more hopefully on the way in the draft. The Falcons also addressed a big need by getting center Alex Mack (from Cleveland) to help anchor the offensive line.
Those are the only teams I've bet so far, but I'm keeping an eye on one of the top contenders.
When the Westgate opened the Super Bowl LI future book back in January, it made the New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers the tri-favorites at 8-1. Since then, the Patriots took over as favorites at 7-1, and their odds dropped even further, down to 6-1, as of Thursday morning. But that's not who I'm talking about.
The Pittsburgh Steelers were my top value bet last season. That was obviously a losing bet, but I still believe it was a good play; they had a lot of injuries (QBBen Roethlisberger was out for various parts of the season, Le'Veon Bell missed the second half and Antonio Brown missed the division playoff game at Denver), and yet they were beating the eventual champion Broncos in Denver before a fourth-string running back fumbled and turned the game around.
If the Steelers can stay just a little bit healthier, they're going to be right in the mix again -- and I'm excited by the fact that they've drifted up to 10-1. The market obviously doubts them, but put them down as my third value bet for Super Bowl LI.
(Note: In my Feb. 8 article, I mentioned the Minnesota Vikings as a potential play at 20-1. I am high on them for the upcoming season and see a bigger upside than their NFC North rival Green Bay, but I didn't pull the trigger and the Vikes are now down to 16-1 at the Westgate. While I'm encouraged that it appears sharp bettors have jumped on the Minny bandwagon, they've lost a little value -- but if you find them at 20-1 or higher, the Vikings could be worth a flier.)
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| TEAM | FEB. 1 | APRIL 7 |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 8-1 | 6-1 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8-1 | 8-1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-1 | 10-1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| Carolina Panthers | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 14-1 | 12-1 |
| Denver Broncos | 14-1 | 12-1 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-1 | 14-1 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16-1 | 14-1 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 20-1 | 16-1 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 20-1 | 25-1 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| New York Jets | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Buffalo Bills | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Houston Texans | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| New York Giants | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Chicago Bears | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Detroit Lions | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| Washington Redskins | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 40-1 | 50-1 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Oakland Raiders | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Miami Dolphins | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Tennessee Titans | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| San Diego Chargers | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Cleveland Browns | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-style: solid; color: rgb(39, 39, 39); height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Super Bowl LI Odds</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
