Love the ATS data Wilheim, that was quite a dig to get that one
I am also interested in the fact that SD is coming off the road win at CLE. Some other fodder: MIA is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 road games coming off a loss (is this still a road game?), so addt'l motivation following a loss not really a factor here. Also MIA is a terrible favorite of more than 4 on the road in the last few years.
Question is of course, do we count this as a road game?
I do think SD is better than their record and MIA is only mediocre as far as the line of scrimmage (Offense = 5.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 and Defense = 5.1 yppl allowed vs. teams that ave. 5.0 yppl).
Would appreciate other views/stats/opinions. I love trying to handicap a new/unusual venue, considering that I can know as much or possibly more than the rest of the now-guessing betting public/pros.
I am also interested in the fact that SD is coming off the road win at CLE. Some other fodder: MIA is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 road games coming off a loss (is this still a road game?), so addt'l motivation following a loss not really a factor here. Also MIA is a terrible favorite of more than 4 on the road in the last few years.
Question is of course, do we count this as a road game?
I do think SD is better than their record and MIA is only mediocre as far as the line of scrimmage (Offense = 5.0 yppl against teams that allow 5.0 and Defense = 5.1 yppl allowed vs. teams that ave. 5.0 yppl).
Would appreciate other views/stats/opinions. I love trying to handicap a new/unusual venue, considering that I can know as much or possibly more than the rest of the now-guessing betting public/pros.
The Chargers would love to be able to run LaDainian Tomlinson 30 times for over 150 yards. Unfortunately this is not likely vs. a Dolphin Defense # 1 against the run in the NFL. This brings into play Chargers Drew Brees and David Boston against Dolphin DBs Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison. Brees will try to use play action to freeze Miami LBackers and throw to Boston. I also look for FB Lorenzo Neal to be key for Tomlinson to run well. All that said, I don't see it happening with much success, the veteran Dolphin Defense will be hard to move on tonight. On offense, Miami is getting back two key Off. linemen tonight, center Seth McKinney and tackle/guard Mark Dixon, the OL of late has been a sore spot for Miami, their return should help Ricky Williams return to his normal 25 carries and 120 yards tonight. The big ? is health of QB Jay Fiedler, I think he will start, but we may see Brian Griese somewhere along the line. I look for a low scoring game, and feel 6 points a little to high. I will try to play under 38, and hope for no freak scores. GL to all.
wil.
wil.
Dig a little deeper and you will find out that Steve Christie kicked field goals of 44, 50, 42 and 32 yards, and Kwamie Lassiter returned an interception 38 yards for a Charger TD, they had one TD on offense and only 15 first downs, and 289 net yards, in the game. The offensive TD came on a 70 yard run by Tomlinson, something the Dolphins are unlikely to yield. BTW. The Chargers had 61 net yards passing in the game.
wil.
wil.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
The Chargers would love to be able to run LaDainian Tomlinson 30 times for over 150 yards. Unfortunately this is not likely vs. a Dolphin Defense # 1 against the run.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Be careful as this information can be a bit misleading.
First of all, look at who Miami has faced so far: Stacey Mack (89 yards), Curtis Martin (32 yards), Travis Henry (and two others combined for 32 yards), Tiki Barber (71 yards), Fred Taylor (35 yards) and Kevin Faulk (38 yards). Not exactly your top-10 RB's in the league. Some decent names in there (Martin, Taylor) but they aren't top-10 backs anymore.
Secondly, you have to understand WHY Dolphins have done so well against the run... it's because their pass defense is SO BAD that teams prefer to throw the ball vs. Miami (avg. giving up 250-yards per game passing)!! Statistically speaking... Dolphins have faced only 141 rush attempts this season-- only 2 teams have faced fewer attempts! So of course the total # of rushing yards will be low.
Now of course you could look at "chicken or egg" syndrome here as counter argument, but my point is don't think that Dolphins have this amazing run defense... look deeper into the stats to make your play. What are the averages? What was the strength of schedule? etc.
GL... I'm on SD for the cover.
The Chargers would love to be able to run LaDainian Tomlinson 30 times for over 150 yards. Unfortunately this is not likely vs. a Dolphin Defense # 1 against the run.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Be careful as this information can be a bit misleading.
First of all, look at who Miami has faced so far: Stacey Mack (89 yards), Curtis Martin (32 yards), Travis Henry (and two others combined for 32 yards), Tiki Barber (71 yards), Fred Taylor (35 yards) and Kevin Faulk (38 yards). Not exactly your top-10 RB's in the league. Some decent names in there (Martin, Taylor) but they aren't top-10 backs anymore.
Secondly, you have to understand WHY Dolphins have done so well against the run... it's because their pass defense is SO BAD that teams prefer to throw the ball vs. Miami (avg. giving up 250-yards per game passing)!! Statistically speaking... Dolphins have faced only 141 rush attempts this season-- only 2 teams have faced fewer attempts! So of course the total # of rushing yards will be low.
Now of course you could look at "chicken or egg" syndrome here as counter argument, but my point is don't think that Dolphins have this amazing run defense... look deeper into the stats to make your play. What are the averages? What was the strength of schedule? etc.
GL... I'm on SD for the cover.
