Best value bets for The Open
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Open (formerly the Open Championship and the British Open) returns to the home of golf at St. Andrews, and most of the talk is aboutJordan Spieth -- and rightfully so.
Spieth has won the first two majors this year, the Masters and the U.S. Open. After the latter victory, the Westgate SuperBook made him the 6-1 second choice behind defending Open champion Rory McIlroy at 5-1. However, McIlroy ruptured a ligament in his left ankle playing football (aka soccer) with friends in Northern Ireland and will not play. Spieth's odds were lowered to 5-1, but he was back to 6-1 at the Westgate as of late Monday night.
Spieth's decision to play the John Deere Classic this past weekend in Illinois instead of prepping for the links style of St. Andrews was met with a lot of skepticism. He quieted a lot of his critics with his 10-under 61 on Saturday, and then he won in a playoff on Sunday.
You're sure to hear this stat from ESPN Stats & Info leading up to the tournament (if you haven't heard it already): Since 2005, of the 118 players who finished in the top 10 (or tied) at The Open, only six played at the John Deere the week prior to the Open. Of course, that's a little skewed since so few try Spieth's unorthodox path. In fact, of the top 25 players in the world, only Spieth played the John Deere, while six played in the Scottish Open and 18 took the week off.
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So I'm not saying Spieth can't win The Open (based on his current form, he certainly can win on any course in any country). And the argument can be made that the U.S. Open was played on a course (Chambers Bay) and in conditions that are very St. Andrews-like. But I'm just not willing to take odds of 6-1 against an expected field of 156.
Rickie Fowler won the Scottish Open, and he's also been attracting a lot of attention at the betting windows. His Open odds were 25-1 a week ago, but now he's the third betting choice at 15-1 behind U.S. Open runner-up Dustin Johnsonat 12-1.
Alf Musketa usually handles the golf handicapping articles at ESPN Insider, but he skips The Open because he considers it too random for his more fundamental/technical handicapping approach. I, however, prefer to take a shot in The Open because of that randomness.
Past winners have included Darren Clarke (2011) at 125-1; Louis Oosthuizen (2010 at this same St. Andrews course) at 200-1; Stewart Cink (2009) at 125-1, and he outlasted an even bigger long shot, the popular Tom Watson at 500-1;Todd Hamilton (2004) at 2001; and Ben Curtis (2003), who was such an outsider that no Vegas books had individual odds on him -- instead he was part of the "field" at 3-1 at the then-Las Vegas Hilton.
Here's my breakdown of the best value bets at the British Open
Tuley's Take for 2015 British Open
I'm not going to go nuts in such a wide-open tournament, but I'll split up $100 in wagers and try to find the winner (note: shop for the best price available).
Tiger Woods ($30 at 30-1)
I know this pick will be met with derision, but while Woods' best days are behind him (I'll agree on that), I don't side with the people who say Woods will never win another major. Tiger's incredible career has led to him being held to a higher standard that I feel is unreasonable for golfers. It was ridiculous back when he would be 2-1 to win majors at the peak of his powers, but I feel the pendulum of expectations has swung too far the other way. For any golfer, it's a long shot to beat 150 other pros on a given weekend, and when you're handicapping a golf event, you're relying on your pick to put together four solid rounds. I don't see how Woods isn't among the most likely to do that on a given weekend (though I will say some of the shots he took at the Memorial and U.S. Open were Tuley-esque, and that's not a good thing on the golf course).
However, Tiger is coming off a solid performance in the Greenbrier Classic, where he had his first bogey-free round since 2013, and if not for several narrowly missed putts he could have finished better than 35th. He's also been playing St. Andrews the past week to reacquaint himself with the course where he won his first two Claret Jugs (though he's been complaining about the slow greens). Woods might not win this week, but I truly believe he will win more majors; I just hope they're not after he's put together a bunch of competitive tournaments and everyone gets on the bandwagon and drives down his odds.
Matt Kuchar ($20 at 40-1)
Luke Donald ($20 at 80-1)
Joost Luiten ($10 at 150-1)
Marc Warren ($10 at 150-1)
Eddie Pepperell ($10 at 200-1)
As mentioned above, the Scottish Open is the most popular prep for The Open as it is just an hour's drive away from St. Andrews and is played under similar conditions. In fact, the last five Open champions have played the Scottish Open the week before, so it's logical to look there for contenders.
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</article>Fowler is too low for me at 15-1, but runner-up Kuchar is playable at 40-1 (note: he's closer to 20-1 at several British books so he's obviously getting a lot of respect across the pond). The three golfers who tied for third place in the Scottish Open at 10-under par -- Luiten, Warren and Pepperell -- are all playing well and are between 150-1 and 200-1. I'm hoping at least one carries over his form from last week. Donald is a former world No. 1 and was tied for sixth in the Scottish Open, just a stroke behind the aforementioned threesome and just three strokes behind Fowler. Donald was also seventh in his previous outing in the Travelers Championship.
Even without McIlroy, it should be an exciting Open. Can Spieth continue his Grand Slam quest? And which unlikely contender will emerge from the pack? Hopefully it's one of our picks. Enjoy the tournament.
Dave Tuley, ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The Open (formerly the Open Championship and the British Open) returns to the home of golf at St. Andrews, and most of the talk is aboutJordan Spieth -- and rightfully so.
Spieth has won the first two majors this year, the Masters and the U.S. Open. After the latter victory, the Westgate SuperBook made him the 6-1 second choice behind defending Open champion Rory McIlroy at 5-1. However, McIlroy ruptured a ligament in his left ankle playing football (aka soccer) with friends in Northern Ireland and will not play. Spieth's odds were lowered to 5-1, but he was back to 6-1 at the Westgate as of late Monday night.
Spieth's decision to play the John Deere Classic this past weekend in Illinois instead of prepping for the links style of St. Andrews was met with a lot of skepticism. He quieted a lot of his critics with his 10-under 61 on Saturday, and then he won in a playoff on Sunday.
You're sure to hear this stat from ESPN Stats & Info leading up to the tournament (if you haven't heard it already): Since 2005, of the 118 players who finished in the top 10 (or tied) at The Open, only six played at the John Deere the week prior to the Open. Of course, that's a little skewed since so few try Spieth's unorthodox path. In fact, of the top 25 players in the world, only Spieth played the John Deere, while six played in the Scottish Open and 18 took the week off.
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So I'm not saying Spieth can't win The Open (based on his current form, he certainly can win on any course in any country). And the argument can be made that the U.S. Open was played on a course (Chambers Bay) and in conditions that are very St. Andrews-like. But I'm just not willing to take odds of 6-1 against an expected field of 156.
Rickie Fowler won the Scottish Open, and he's also been attracting a lot of attention at the betting windows. His Open odds were 25-1 a week ago, but now he's the third betting choice at 15-1 behind U.S. Open runner-up Dustin Johnsonat 12-1.
Alf Musketa usually handles the golf handicapping articles at ESPN Insider, but he skips The Open because he considers it too random for his more fundamental/technical handicapping approach. I, however, prefer to take a shot in The Open because of that randomness.
Past winners have included Darren Clarke (2011) at 125-1; Louis Oosthuizen (2010 at this same St. Andrews course) at 200-1; Stewart Cink (2009) at 125-1, and he outlasted an even bigger long shot, the popular Tom Watson at 500-1;Todd Hamilton (2004) at 2001; and Ben Curtis (2003), who was such an outsider that no Vegas books had individual odds on him -- instead he was part of the "field" at 3-1 at the then-Las Vegas Hilton.
Here's my breakdown of the best value bets at the British Open
Tuley's Take for 2015 British Open
I'm not going to go nuts in such a wide-open tournament, but I'll split up $100 in wagers and try to find the winner (note: shop for the best price available).
Tiger Woods ($30 at 30-1)
I know this pick will be met with derision, but while Woods' best days are behind him (I'll agree on that), I don't side with the people who say Woods will never win another major. Tiger's incredible career has led to him being held to a higher standard that I feel is unreasonable for golfers. It was ridiculous back when he would be 2-1 to win majors at the peak of his powers, but I feel the pendulum of expectations has swung too far the other way. For any golfer, it's a long shot to beat 150 other pros on a given weekend, and when you're handicapping a golf event, you're relying on your pick to put together four solid rounds. I don't see how Woods isn't among the most likely to do that on a given weekend (though I will say some of the shots he took at the Memorial and U.S. Open were Tuley-esque, and that's not a good thing on the golf course).
However, Tiger is coming off a solid performance in the Greenbrier Classic, where he had his first bogey-free round since 2013, and if not for several narrowly missed putts he could have finished better than 35th. He's also been playing St. Andrews the past week to reacquaint himself with the course where he won his first two Claret Jugs (though he's been complaining about the slow greens). Woods might not win this week, but I truly believe he will win more majors; I just hope they're not after he's put together a bunch of competitive tournaments and everyone gets on the bandwagon and drives down his odds.
Matt Kuchar ($20 at 40-1)
Luke Donald ($20 at 80-1)
Joost Luiten ($10 at 150-1)
Marc Warren ($10 at 150-1)
Eddie Pepperell ($10 at 200-1)
As mentioned above, the Scottish Open is the most popular prep for The Open as it is just an hour's drive away from St. Andrews and is played under similar conditions. In fact, the last five Open champions have played the Scottish Open the week before, so it's logical to look there for contenders.
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</article>Fowler is too low for me at 15-1, but runner-up Kuchar is playable at 40-1 (note: he's closer to 20-1 at several British books so he's obviously getting a lot of respect across the pond). The three golfers who tied for third place in the Scottish Open at 10-under par -- Luiten, Warren and Pepperell -- are all playing well and are between 150-1 and 200-1. I'm hoping at least one carries over his form from last week. Donald is a former world No. 1 and was tied for sixth in the Scottish Open, just a stroke behind the aforementioned threesome and just three strokes behind Fowler. Donald was also seventh in his previous outing in the Travelers Championship.
Even without McIlroy, it should be an exciting Open. Can Spieth continue his Grand Slam quest? And which unlikely contender will emerge from the pack? Hopefully it's one of our picks. Enjoy the tournament.
