[h=1]Best early NFL Week 1 value bets[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL's 2017 regular-season schedule was released Thursday night and most people spent a lot of time going over each team's slate and figuring out how many games they would win.
But here at ESPN Chalk, we were more interested in the first betting numbers to come out of the schedule release, which were the Week 1 lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook around 5:20 p.m. PT followed by the South Point at 5:45 p.m. PT and the Golden Nugget at 5:54 p.m. PT.
Now, a lot of people think it's way too early to be betting games in the fall, fearing the unknown of injuries and suspensions (and we haven't even had the draft yet), but we believe there's value to be found in going through the opening lines.
Last year, I made five best bets in this column (Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Atlanta, Oakland +1 vs. New Orleans, San Diego +7.5 vs. Kansas City, NY Giants +4 vs. Dallas and Pittsburgh -3 vs. Washington) and went 5-0 ATS. Including a few other games labeled as leans, I was 7-1 ATS overall with the only loss on the L.A. Rams -2.5 vs. San Francisco.
While the obvious goal is to pick the winner of the games you're looking to bet, it's just as important to project which way the line is likely to move by opening weekend and to be on the right side of that move. It's a great feeling to have a ticket in your possession when a line has moved several points (or across the key numbers of 3 or 7) and deciding if you're going to let it ride because you have the best of it, or shooting for a middle. I didn't do as well in that regard last season as I was 5-3 in the line moves on those 8 games where I had a best bet or a lean, but that's the goal.
So, let's look at the Week 1 lines from the Westgate (I'll be leaning heavily on our most recent NFL Vegas Power Ratings after the majority of free-agent signings) and see where we can find value with best bets marked with an asterisk(*):
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[h=2]Thursday, Sept. 7[/h]
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-7)
Our power ratings have the Patriots as 5.5 points better than the Chiefs, so even with needing to cross the key number of 7, I was expecting this line to be closer to be New England -7.5, and possibly as high as -8.5 with the public's love for backing the Patriots (besides, they were a record-tying 16-3 ATS last season, including the playoffs). It looks like tremendous value to lay just 7 points now, as we don't see any reason (besides a Tom Brady injury) that this line will drop to 6.5 -- and a much higher likelihood that it's headed over 7. In fact, the South Point has already posted New England -8 (so, bettors in Nevada can already be holding tickets on Patriots -7 and Chiefs +8).
My play: Patriots -7*
[h=2]Sunday, Sept. 10[/h]
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Our power ratings have the Bills as 3 points better than the Jets, so I was anticipating a line closer to Buffalo -5. At +6.5, there's a little value on the Jets (and I certainly don't expect it to go to 7 with the South Point already posting Bills -6), but I'm not going to call it a best bet.
My play: NY Jets +6.5
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
The Falcons will be trying to avoid the Super Bowl losers' hangover, but we have them rated 9.5 points better than the Bears, so even with Chicago's home-field advantage, I don't see why this line is below a touchdown. The Westgate opened with Atlanta -5.5 while the South Point and Golden Nugget both went with -6. I agree that's the way this is headed and would lock in the shorter price now.
My play: Falcons -5.5*
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Last year, I had a lean on the Jaguars +4.5 vs. the Packers in Week 1. That turned out to be the best available early number as the line closed Green Bay -3.5 with the Packers winning and covering 17-13 against the closing line on Sept. 11 (but the Jaguars covering the early line in April). It looks like Jacksonville is the right side again, as our power ratings have the Texans only half a point better than the Jaguars, so I don't believe this line should be higher than a field goal.
My play: Jaguars +4.5* (+5.5 available at South Point)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
This begins a string of games where we have the road team power-rated higher but the home team is favored (or pick 'em in the case of Oakland-Tennessee) by less than a field goal. In this case, we have the Eagles rated 2 points better than the Redskins but the Redskins are -2.5. I lean to the Eagles, but not willing to make it a best bet as I think we could possibly get +3 later (note: the Golden Nugget has the line at -2.5 -120, so its oddsmakers believe it's more likely to head that way).
My play: Eagles +2.5
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
This is similar to the Eagles-Redskins game above; we have the Cardinals 2.5 points better than the Lions on a neutral field yet they're getting +2.5 here. Again, I believe Arizona is the right side but I'm not willing to pull the trigger yet.
My play: Cardinals +2.5
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (pick 'em)
Here's the only Week 1 game to open pick 'em. We have the Raiders as 2 points better than the Titans, so the line looks spot-on with Tennessee's home-field advantage.
My play: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-2)
Our power ratings have the Buccaneers rated 1.5 points better than the Dolphins, so with Miami's home-field advantage I was expecting this to be around Miami -1. But that's not enough of an edge to make it even a lean.
My play: Pass
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
There's a little more wiggle room here with the Ravens rated 3.5 points better than the Bengals and getting +1 (+1.5 at the South Point). However, it's not too big of an edge, as we would make it just Ravens -1.5 with Cincinnati's home-field advantage.
My play: Ravens +1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
Our power ratings have the Steelers as 12 points better than the Browns (the Steelers are our No. 2 team behind the Patriots while the Browns are dead-last) and with Cleveland's lack of a home-field advantage, I don't see why this isn't double digits (though it is at the South Point at -10). Still, I don't regard it as strong of a play as the Patriots or Falcons.
My play: Steelers -9.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
We have the Colts rated 5 points better than the Rams, but with Los Angeles' home-field advantage, that takes this line down to a field goal. With the books offering the hook at +3.5, the play is on the Rams (note: the BetOnline offshore book already has this line at 3). I'll be keeping an eye out in the coming days to see if +4 is offered anywhere, but likely grabbing +3.5 in case it starts disappearing.
My play: Rams +3.5*
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-2.5 -120)
This is one of Week 1's marquee matchups and it's lined about right. Our power ratings have the Seahawks rated 1.5 points better than the Packers, but with Green Bay's sizable home-field advantage (and Seattle's home/road dichotomy), it's no surprise that the Packers are small home favorites. The South Point and Golden Nugget have the line up to 3, so I would lean to Seattle at that price.
My play: Pass (lean at Seahawks +3)
Carolina Panthers (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
The Panthers, trying to bounce back from their disappointing season, are rated 5.5 points better than the 49ers. With San Fran's negligible home-field advantage, I'd still make Carolina more than a field-goal favorite. There's not much edge getting the 49ers +4; besides, the South Point already is offering them at +5 and there's no rush to bet them yet.
My play: Pass
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
The Giants beat the Cowboys twice last year, setting up one of the more anticipated Week 1 matchups in the Sunday nighter. We have the Cowboys rated just 2.5 points better than the Giants, so I wouldn't make them much higher than the key number of 3, certainly nowhere near the opening line of -6 (or 6.5 as the Golden Nugget opened this game, so I'll shop around and advise everyone to do likewise). My play: Giants +6*
[h=2]Monday, Sept. 11[/h]
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
Our power ratings have the Vikings 1 point better than the Saints. With Minnesota's home-field advantage (and having to pass through the key number of 3, I'd have this line over a field goal but not by much. The South Point opened lower at -3.5 while the Golden Nugget went higher at -4 -120, so anything is possible with this line. I would call Vikings -3 a value play but flip to the Saints if it goes to 4.5.
My play: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
We have the Broncos rated 2.5 points better than the Chargers, so with Denver's home-field advantage and crossing key number of 3, I made this line Broncos -4. The Westgate went with 3.5 while the South Point went with 4.5, but I'll predict it'll settle in the middle at our number. I don't see much value on either side.
My play: Pass
Tuley's best bets: New England -7, Atlanta -5.5, Jacksonville +4.5, Los Angeles Rams +3.5, New York Giants +6.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- The NFL's 2017 regular-season schedule was released Thursday night and most people spent a lot of time going over each team's slate and figuring out how many games they would win.
But here at ESPN Chalk, we were more interested in the first betting numbers to come out of the schedule release, which were the Week 1 lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook around 5:20 p.m. PT followed by the South Point at 5:45 p.m. PT and the Golden Nugget at 5:54 p.m. PT.
Now, a lot of people think it's way too early to be betting games in the fall, fearing the unknown of injuries and suspensions (and we haven't even had the draft yet), but we believe there's value to be found in going through the opening lines.
Last year, I made five best bets in this column (Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Atlanta, Oakland +1 vs. New Orleans, San Diego +7.5 vs. Kansas City, NY Giants +4 vs. Dallas and Pittsburgh -3 vs. Washington) and went 5-0 ATS. Including a few other games labeled as leans, I was 7-1 ATS overall with the only loss on the L.A. Rams -2.5 vs. San Francisco.
While the obvious goal is to pick the winner of the games you're looking to bet, it's just as important to project which way the line is likely to move by opening weekend and to be on the right side of that move. It's a great feeling to have a ticket in your possession when a line has moved several points (or across the key numbers of 3 or 7) and deciding if you're going to let it ride because you have the best of it, or shooting for a middle. I didn't do as well in that regard last season as I was 5-3 in the line moves on those 8 games where I had a best bet or a lean, but that's the goal.
So, let's look at the Week 1 lines from the Westgate (I'll be leaning heavily on our most recent NFL Vegas Power Ratings after the majority of free-agent signings) and see where we can find value with best bets marked with an asterisk(*):
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[h=2]Thursday, Sept. 7[/h]
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-7)
Our power ratings have the Patriots as 5.5 points better than the Chiefs, so even with needing to cross the key number of 7, I was expecting this line to be closer to be New England -7.5, and possibly as high as -8.5 with the public's love for backing the Patriots (besides, they were a record-tying 16-3 ATS last season, including the playoffs). It looks like tremendous value to lay just 7 points now, as we don't see any reason (besides a Tom Brady injury) that this line will drop to 6.5 -- and a much higher likelihood that it's headed over 7. In fact, the South Point has already posted New England -8 (so, bettors in Nevada can already be holding tickets on Patriots -7 and Chiefs +8).
My play: Patriots -7*
[h=2]Sunday, Sept. 10[/h]
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Our power ratings have the Bills as 3 points better than the Jets, so I was anticipating a line closer to Buffalo -5. At +6.5, there's a little value on the Jets (and I certainly don't expect it to go to 7 with the South Point already posting Bills -6), but I'm not going to call it a best bet.
My play: NY Jets +6.5
Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Chicago Bears
The Falcons will be trying to avoid the Super Bowl losers' hangover, but we have them rated 9.5 points better than the Bears, so even with Chicago's home-field advantage, I don't see why this line is below a touchdown. The Westgate opened with Atlanta -5.5 while the South Point and Golden Nugget both went with -6. I agree that's the way this is headed and would lock in the shorter price now.
My play: Falcons -5.5*
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Last year, I had a lean on the Jaguars +4.5 vs. the Packers in Week 1. That turned out to be the best available early number as the line closed Green Bay -3.5 with the Packers winning and covering 17-13 against the closing line on Sept. 11 (but the Jaguars covering the early line in April). It looks like Jacksonville is the right side again, as our power ratings have the Texans only half a point better than the Jaguars, so I don't believe this line should be higher than a field goal.
My play: Jaguars +4.5* (+5.5 available at South Point)
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (-2.5)
This begins a string of games where we have the road team power-rated higher but the home team is favored (or pick 'em in the case of Oakland-Tennessee) by less than a field goal. In this case, we have the Eagles rated 2 points better than the Redskins but the Redskins are -2.5. I lean to the Eagles, but not willing to make it a best bet as I think we could possibly get +3 later (note: the Golden Nugget has the line at -2.5 -120, so its oddsmakers believe it's more likely to head that way).
My play: Eagles +2.5
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
This is similar to the Eagles-Redskins game above; we have the Cardinals 2.5 points better than the Lions on a neutral field yet they're getting +2.5 here. Again, I believe Arizona is the right side but I'm not willing to pull the trigger yet.
My play: Cardinals +2.5
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (pick 'em)
Here's the only Week 1 game to open pick 'em. We have the Raiders as 2 points better than the Titans, so the line looks spot-on with Tennessee's home-field advantage.
My play: Pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-2)
Our power ratings have the Buccaneers rated 1.5 points better than the Dolphins, so with Miami's home-field advantage I was expecting this to be around Miami -1. But that's not enough of an edge to make it even a lean.
My play: Pass
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
There's a little more wiggle room here with the Ravens rated 3.5 points better than the Bengals and getting +1 (+1.5 at the South Point). However, it's not too big of an edge, as we would make it just Ravens -1.5 with Cincinnati's home-field advantage.
My play: Ravens +1
Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5) at Cleveland Browns
Our power ratings have the Steelers as 12 points better than the Browns (the Steelers are our No. 2 team behind the Patriots while the Browns are dead-last) and with Cleveland's lack of a home-field advantage, I don't see why this isn't double digits (though it is at the South Point at -10). Still, I don't regard it as strong of a play as the Patriots or Falcons.
My play: Steelers -9.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams
We have the Colts rated 5 points better than the Rams, but with Los Angeles' home-field advantage, that takes this line down to a field goal. With the books offering the hook at +3.5, the play is on the Rams (note: the BetOnline offshore book already has this line at 3). I'll be keeping an eye out in the coming days to see if +4 is offered anywhere, but likely grabbing +3.5 in case it starts disappearing.
My play: Rams +3.5*
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-2.5 -120)
This is one of Week 1's marquee matchups and it's lined about right. Our power ratings have the Seahawks rated 1.5 points better than the Packers, but with Green Bay's sizable home-field advantage (and Seattle's home/road dichotomy), it's no surprise that the Packers are small home favorites. The South Point and Golden Nugget have the line up to 3, so I would lean to Seattle at that price.
My play: Pass (lean at Seahawks +3)
Carolina Panthers (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
The Panthers, trying to bounce back from their disappointing season, are rated 5.5 points better than the 49ers. With San Fran's negligible home-field advantage, I'd still make Carolina more than a field-goal favorite. There's not much edge getting the 49ers +4; besides, the South Point already is offering them at +5 and there's no rush to bet them yet.
My play: Pass
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
The Giants beat the Cowboys twice last year, setting up one of the more anticipated Week 1 matchups in the Sunday nighter. We have the Cowboys rated just 2.5 points better than the Giants, so I wouldn't make them much higher than the key number of 3, certainly nowhere near the opening line of -6 (or 6.5 as the Golden Nugget opened this game, so I'll shop around and advise everyone to do likewise). My play: Giants +6*
[h=2]Monday, Sept. 11[/h]
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-4)
Our power ratings have the Vikings 1 point better than the Saints. With Minnesota's home-field advantage (and having to pass through the key number of 3, I'd have this line over a field goal but not by much. The South Point opened lower at -3.5 while the Golden Nugget went higher at -4 -120, so anything is possible with this line. I would call Vikings -3 a value play but flip to the Saints if it goes to 4.5.
My play: Pass
We have the Broncos rated 2.5 points better than the Chargers, so with Denver's home-field advantage and crossing key number of 3, I made this line Broncos -4. The Westgate went with 3.5 while the South Point went with 4.5, but I'll predict it'll settle in the middle at our number. I don't see much value on either side.
My play: Pass
Tuley's best bets: New England -7, Atlanta -5.5, Jacksonville +4.5, Los Angeles Rams +3.5, New York Giants +6.
